Take The Bills To The Bank In Season Opener With Jets
Week 1: Buffalo at New York Jets
When: Sunday, September 8 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Bills ATS
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the Jets as 3.5-point favorites at home to Buffalo, thus calling them slightly better on neutral field. One trend that bodes ill for the Jets is the following: in the last eight games between these two teams, the favored team is 1-7 both SU and ATS.
Le'Veon Who?
New York made a splash in the offseason by signing former Steeler Le'Veon Bell to a four-year contract worth 52 million dollars. After sitting out the preseason in addition to all of last season, Bell has stacked the deck against himself. It seems more likely that he'll be rusty than that he'll be remotely near peak form. Moreover, he's a relatively strong injury candidate because a football player has to condition his body to endure game-level physical damage. But Sunday will be the first game since 2017 in which he'll take hits.
Even if my speculation about Bell's rust and condition are wrong, Bell is a poor fit in a Jet uniform. Stylistically, he's known for his patience in waiting for holes to develop and for his vision in seeing those holes. He benefited from playing behind a superb offensive line in Pittsburgh, one that helped his former backup James Conner perform at a higher level than he did.
But New York's offensive line represents a downgrade relative to Pittsburgh's at every position. Kelvin Beachum is a penalty-prone, very small-sized left tackle who has always graded as one of the league's worst run blockers. Left guard Kelechi Osemele has experienced partly injury-induced, relentless regression since his 2016 season, prompting Oakland to deal him and a sixth-round pick for a mere fifth-rounder. Center Ryan Kalil is coming out of retirement. PFF graded right guard Brian Winters as average after he finally enjoyed a healthy season. Brandon Shell, though, was graded as one of the worst right tackles.
Bell will go up against a Buffalo front seven that retains significant continuity after ranking 10th last year in opposing YPC. Number 9 draft pick Ed Oliver looks to make an immediate impact with his top-notch burst off the snap and ability to disrupt opposing backfields. Former first-rounder Tremaine Edmunds will build off the gains that he made in the latter half of last season (Defensive Rookie Of The Month in December) to complement a veteran linebacking group. He led Buffalo with 121 tackles in 15 games.
Buffalo, Not New York, Has The Edge At Quarterback
Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has been the recipient of considerable hype after his strong finish last season (excepting the beating that he took in New England). On the season, he posted unimpressive numbers that reflect his occasional ability to make great throws but his frequent tendency to make awful ones. He completed 57.7 percent of his throws, ranking 31st in completion rate, and threw 15 interceptions to 17 touchdowns. While his future is bright, Darnold goes up against one of the NFL's best secondaries -- Buffalo's ranked third in opposing passer rating and returns the same group plus more competitive depth.
While Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen's numbers weren't as pretty as Darnold's December numbers, he proved to be a game-changer in two respects: with his deep ball and with his legs. Regarding the former respect, the Bills gave Allen three speedsters in John Brown, Robert Foster, and Zay Jones, each of whom runs 4.45 or faster in the 40-yard dash. Brown has the most established reputation as a deep threat. He amassed 17 yards per reception last year as a Raven, although his numbers gradually declined after Baltimore became more run-heavy and switched to Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
Unlike Darnold, Allen will confront a secondary filled with question marks. New York's top corner Trumaine Johnson is vying for his hamstring to feel 100% again, which would otherwise make him look even slower than he did last year and than he would look trying to contend with Buffalo's speedsters at receiver. Darryl Roberts, formerly undrafted and formerly with New England, will make his first career start whether Johnson plays or doesn't.
Last year, 20% of Allen's pass attempts eclipsed 20 yards, meaning that the Jets will repeatedly have to confront Allen's deep passing ability without sufficient quality in their secondary. Moreover, Allen ranked top-five among quarterbacks in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. He'll benefit from facing a Jets front seven down two key linebackers -- Avery Williamson to injury and Brandon Copeland to suspension -- and from working behind a retooled offensive line that features center Mitch Morse, who's allowed one sack since being drafted in 2015.
Conclusion
New York boasts the bigger offensive names in Bell and Darnold. But Bell will be ineffective behind sub-par blocking, possibly due to rust, and facing one of the higher-ranked front sevens. Darnold has to contend with one of the league's best secondaries based on several statistical categories. Buffalo has a gamer at quarterback who'll exploit New York's beleaguered linebacking crew to make big gains on the ground while he'll have the weapons at wide receiver and time in the pocket to connect on numerous big plays downfield.
Week 1: Buffalo at New York Jets
When: Sunday, September 8 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Bills ATS
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the Jets as 3.5-point favorites at home to Buffalo, thus calling them slightly better on neutral field. One trend that bodes ill for the Jets is the following: in the last eight games between these two teams, the favored team is 1-7 both SU and ATS.
Le'Veon Who?
New York made a splash in the offseason by signing former Steeler Le'Veon Bell to a four-year contract worth 52 million dollars. After sitting out the preseason in addition to all of last season, Bell has stacked the deck against himself. It seems more likely that he'll be rusty than that he'll be remotely near peak form. Moreover, he's a relatively strong injury candidate because a football player has to condition his body to endure game-level physical damage. But Sunday will be the first game since 2017 in which he'll take hits.
Even if my speculation about Bell's rust and condition are wrong, Bell is a poor fit in a Jet uniform. Stylistically, he's known for his patience in waiting for holes to develop and for his vision in seeing those holes. He benefited from playing behind a superb offensive line in Pittsburgh, one that helped his former backup James Conner perform at a higher level than he did.
But New York's offensive line represents a downgrade relative to Pittsburgh's at every position. Kelvin Beachum is a penalty-prone, very small-sized left tackle who has always graded as one of the league's worst run blockers. Left guard Kelechi Osemele has experienced partly injury-induced, relentless regression since his 2016 season, prompting Oakland to deal him and a sixth-round pick for a mere fifth-rounder. Center Ryan Kalil is coming out of retirement. PFF graded right guard Brian Winters as average after he finally enjoyed a healthy season. Brandon Shell, though, was graded as one of the worst right tackles.
Bell will go up against a Buffalo front seven that retains significant continuity after ranking 10th last year in opposing YPC. Number 9 draft pick Ed Oliver looks to make an immediate impact with his top-notch burst off the snap and ability to disrupt opposing backfields. Former first-rounder Tremaine Edmunds will build off the gains that he made in the latter half of last season (Defensive Rookie Of The Month in December) to complement a veteran linebacking group. He led Buffalo with 121 tackles in 15 games.
Buffalo, Not New York, Has The Edge At Quarterback
Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has been the recipient of considerable hype after his strong finish last season (excepting the beating that he took in New England). On the season, he posted unimpressive numbers that reflect his occasional ability to make great throws but his frequent tendency to make awful ones. He completed 57.7 percent of his throws, ranking 31st in completion rate, and threw 15 interceptions to 17 touchdowns. While his future is bright, Darnold goes up against one of the NFL's best secondaries -- Buffalo's ranked third in opposing passer rating and returns the same group plus more competitive depth.
While Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen's numbers weren't as pretty as Darnold's December numbers, he proved to be a game-changer in two respects: with his deep ball and with his legs. Regarding the former respect, the Bills gave Allen three speedsters in John Brown, Robert Foster, and Zay Jones, each of whom runs 4.45 or faster in the 40-yard dash. Brown has the most established reputation as a deep threat. He amassed 17 yards per reception last year as a Raven, although his numbers gradually declined after Baltimore became more run-heavy and switched to Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
Unlike Darnold, Allen will confront a secondary filled with question marks. New York's top corner Trumaine Johnson is vying for his hamstring to feel 100% again, which would otherwise make him look even slower than he did last year and than he would look trying to contend with Buffalo's speedsters at receiver. Darryl Roberts, formerly undrafted and formerly with New England, will make his first career start whether Johnson plays or doesn't.
Last year, 20% of Allen's pass attempts eclipsed 20 yards, meaning that the Jets will repeatedly have to confront Allen's deep passing ability without sufficient quality in their secondary. Moreover, Allen ranked top-five among quarterbacks in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. He'll benefit from facing a Jets front seven down two key linebackers -- Avery Williamson to injury and Brandon Copeland to suspension -- and from working behind a retooled offensive line that features center Mitch Morse, who's allowed one sack since being drafted in 2015.
Conclusion
New York boasts the bigger offensive names in Bell and Darnold. But Bell will be ineffective behind sub-par blocking, possibly due to rust, and facing one of the higher-ranked front sevens. Darnold has to contend with one of the league's best secondaries based on several statistical categories. Buffalo has a gamer at quarterback who'll exploit New York's beleaguered linebacking crew to make big gains on the ground while he'll have the weapons at wide receiver and time in the pocket to connect on numerous big plays downfield.
