biggest value play of the bowl!!

T

Traderjoe123

Well-Known Member
argue that ohio state doesnt deserve to be in for whatever reason. BUT no world exists that clemson should be a 7.5 pt favorite against them. my numbers say pickem. this is a gigantic public overeaction for a few reasons.... northwestern gets zero credit. they are a very well coached defense and gave fields all he could handle without his safety blanket in Olave he struggled to find a rhythm. clemson is also being overvalued in the public eye for thrashing the domers in a situation where they had been planning for this revenge game since the OT loss last month, and notre dame just isnt a great football team. they will get throttled by bama. this is the perfect set up for a large bet on ohio state plus the points!

i think this game play out a lot like last year. ohio state should grind them out on the ground to a victory. something that would have happened last year before JK got hurt.

i know i was all over this game last year and it took multiple acts of god (statistical anomalies/luck/terrible officiating) for that play to lose.
 
I like them points but won't play it BIG. Ohio St ain't that good and ain't played enough games to get it all together on both sides of the ball.
 
Why funny?

Ohio State was without 23 players vs Michigan State? And...that mattered for what?

Olave being out hurt. They could've used Browning. Hooker was replaced by Proctor. Both were Big Ten Honorable mention this year, was Proctor that much of a dop off from Hooker? I recall OSU fans not being especially happy with Hooker a few games back. Who else mattered? Chrisman was out, the replacement had some great punts. One of the guys who got more playing time, Hillard got an INT.

I fail to see anything beyond 3 players that impacted that game. 22 players of mostly nobodies who wouldn't have played in that game had they been available is what I see.
 
Traderjoe123 said:
i know i was all over this game last year and it took multiple acts of god (statistical anomalies/luck/terrible officiating) for that play to lose.
Click to expand...
Reversing the fumble was clearly the correct call (though I'm sure you disagree), and I understand you're talking about the targeting call on Wade, but what staistical anomalies? Any other officiating issues? What acts of God?
 
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s--k said:
Why funny?

Ohio State was without 23 players vs Michigan State? And...that mattered for what?

Olave being out hurt. They could've used Browning. Hooker was replaced by Proctor. Both were Big Ten Honorable mention this year, was Proctor that much of a dop off from Hooker? I recall OSU fans not being especially happy with Hooker a few games back. Who else mattered? Chrisman was out, the replacement had some great punts. One of the guys who got more playing time, Hillard got an INT.

I fail to see anything beyond 3 players that impacted that game. 22 players of mostly nobodies who wouldn't have played in that game had they been available is what I see.
Click to expand...
If you were running a football team and was without 22 of your players would you feel the same way? Moral alone with these young kids would be a battle in itself.
I see that you're doing a great job informing us of players opting out on other teams. If it wasn't a factor (which it certainly is) why bother informing us?
I think its very significant that OSU were missing this many players.
 
I'm sure you are familiar with the names of players who are out. Like I said 3 of the 22 were missed on the field. How many players are on Ohio State's team? Over 100? It is not the quantity of players who missed, it is the select few quality players who missed.

If I was listing players out in the bowl thread from the list of Ohio State players that missed last week I would list Olave, Browning and Hooker. Cam Brown got hurt second game of the year.

You can use whatever variables suit your needs for the game. Please just don't try and convince anyone else that Chris Booker, Steele Chambers, Drue Chrisman, Jacolbe Cowan, Tommy Eichenberg, Tyler Friday, Zaid Hamdan, Jaylen Harris, Gunnar Hoak, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Cade Kacherksi, Jagger Laroe, Corey Rau, Ben Schmiesing, Bryson Shaw, Ryan Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, Alec Taylor, Kourt Williams would've mattered in that game.

This site deserves more honesty than that.
 
This is as honest as it gets.

Missing players:

Olave: star wr
Chrisman: star punter though the replacement performed quite admirably...nevertheless in-game strategy could've been affected
Baron Browning: senior starting linebacker
Tyler Friday: regular part of the starting DL rotation
Jean-Baptiste: regular part of the starting DL rotation
Smith Njigba: 5-star frosh and #3 wr target
Malik Hooker: starting safety (granted he sucked but he had experience - as much as you can have in a 5 game season)
Ronnie Hickman: played significantly against MSU and was poised to take over/contribute at their notoriously beleaguered safety position

Missing assistant coaches: Brian Hartline (WR) and Al Washington (LB)

The fact that OSU "performed well" against MSU despite missing a totally different group of players does not devalue the impact of player/coaching losses. Perhaps OSU beats MSU 72-6 instead of 52-12? Who knows. Who cares. Using the MSU game as evidence that missing a significant amount of players and coaches does not affect team performance is really illogical.

It's not as if we need to look very far to see how a team performed when covid compromised vs. full strength. Last weekend's ND backers claimed that Clemson wouldn't look markedly different than the first game against ND because "DJ threw for 400 yards in game 1, so really how can the offense be improved with Lawrence?" Yeah, that's really not how this works. And also, there were a bunch of defensive starters missing the first time around against ND. That stuff matters. And it showed in game 2 with a wildly different outcome than game 1.

This OSU matchup really seems to have made everyone very emotional. Those who felt personally violated by OSU's inclusion in the B1G champ game (instead of the next team in which would've been PSU lolz) clearly want to see OSU fail in order to justify their grievances and their notion that OSU doesn't belong. Minimizing the impact of this laundry list of player/coach absences is a consequence of bias.

My unsolicited advice. Take a deep breath. It's going to be ok. Try to look at this objectively. Maybe OSU gets blown out, maybe they don't. But if you're expecting the same talent level, depth, and coaching that showed up against NW to be taking the field against Clemson** then you're simply not being honest nor objective.



**Pending future covid tests of course. It seems pretty clear that OSU doesn't have their shit together in regard to covid, so I wouldn't want to be making any assumptions on player availability this far out. I wouldn't want to bet it one way or the other until I knew who was suiting up. Which probably won't be known until right before kickoff. Good luck to all.
 
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Excellent post Alishaheed.

Based on your breakdown, I'll say maybe 5 of the 22 mattered. I mean Smith Nijba has 6 catches in 5 games. And it is almost disingenuous to even name the punter because the other punter was so good. Bottom line, your post and correction if it is meant as a correction is appreciated.

One thing I have gotten defensive about is that all season long we have seen overblown news about the number of players missing from games, big headlines, pregame show analysts hyperventilating...and then I have witnessed game after game that it had absolutely zero impact and actually the opposite of what one might suspect happen.

And now I see too many people that appear to be using it as an excuse for why Ohio State struggled vs Northwestern.

Here is what I know and I think we can all agree on. Just because Ohio State did not play well in some facets vs Northwestern that does not mean they will not play well similarly in their next game. LSU - Florida, then Florida - Bama. It happens every single week. You get a different team every week for so many teams. It's why everyone needs to be careful reacting or overracting to the last game a team played.

It's fine that Ohio State didn't blow out Northwestern. It matters nothing for their next game, if anything it makes it more likely they will be that much more determined to play better off a bad game.

I will likely have Ohio State plus the points vs Clemson as one of the reasons being that perception on them is down and perception of Clemson has grown just based off their last games. I heard a few people saying they thought Notre Dame would beat Clemson again. I don't think too many people are going to say that about Ohio State. Those are kind of buy low sell high things I think about in some high profile games.

We can move on. If it takes me saying I am wrong to say that only 3 of the 22 players impacted the outcome of the Northwestern game, I will say I'm wrong. Criticism isn't bad if it is designed to make us better. We should be looking forward more than backwards now.
 
i thought i would bump this thread with quotes from the same man 2 months apart.... with said fuckstick making polar opposite statements..... in doing this i see from his backwoods mentality he is hedging his bets as he sees his probability of a loss is high.... but wow is he a filthy human being.

“Obviously, they're a great team. They're plenty good enough and talented enough to beat us and good enough to win the national championship. But in my opinion, I don't think that it's right that three teams have to play 13 games to win it all and one team has to play eight,” Swinney said, according to 247Sports' Garrett Stepien. “What universe am I living in? And it has nothing to do with them. It was about qualifying. And I didn't think they were qualified, based on the number of games, versus all these other teams.

“In my opinion — Texas A&M, Florida, Oklahoma, Cincinnati — they got punished for playing more games.”

Asked about his decision to rank Ohio State 11th in the Coaches Poll – five spots lower than any other coach with a ballot – Swinney said he felt any team that played fewer than nine games did not belong in the top 10.

"First of all, my vote don't mean anything,” Swinney said. “But it means something to me, you know? It's my poll. I do it. It creates a stir because we just so happen to be playing Ohio State. It has nothing to do with Ohio State — absolutely zero. You can change the name to Michigan or Georgia or Florida or Tennessee or Nebraska. Anytime you have a top-10 (ranking), it should be that special. This year, it's like really, really, really special, and I wanted it to be that way. And so, I wanted to recognize the teams that played nine games or more. And so, if you didn't play nine games, I just didn't consider you from the top 10. That's why they were 11.”

and the same human saying the exact opposite a couple months ago

Swinney, whose team is ranked No. 1 in both major polls, believes Big Ten teams should be eligible for the College Football Playoff.

“It’s a crazy year – who knows how many games anybody’s going to have?” Swinney said. “I think if they had started in November, I don’t think that would’ve been feasible. I don’t know much about it, but what I’ve heard they’re going to play eight or nine games or whatever. I think they certainly will have the opportunity to compete. I have no problem with that at all.

“Now they’re back in it, some of the best schools in the country. It will just make it even better, make it more fun. Who knows what will happen – still gotta pick the best four teams, whoever they are. So now there’s just a few more teams to choose from.”

thats your coach!!!

but you have to admire a man that sees whats coming at him and attempts to avoid it! thats self preservation...... this will be a great game indeed
 
M.W. said:
Reversing the fumble was clearly the correct call (though I'm sure you disagree), and I understand you're talking about the targeting call on Wade, but what staistical anomalies? Any other officiating issues? What acts of God?
Click to expand...
im glad you caught that part... i guess id argue its a statictical anomoly AND an act of god for a team to get outplayed, outcoached, be the inferior team, refs to call such an atrocious game, key player player injuries, and a last minute drive that ended with 2 of the most in synch qb/wr tamdems in football totally reading each other wrong and causing an interception and for the outcome to be what it was. if that game is played 100 times last year ohio state wins 90-95 times. it was really me being sarcastic!

clemson needed ALL of those things to come to fruition to squeek out a win. so i have to ask, do you think those things happen again???? or was a higher power in charge of the outcome of that? (LSU was gods team in 2019 and OSU was the only team with a shot of derailing that) i guess i just cant see clemson getting that lucky again.

and yes i totally disagree the reversal of the fumble and subsequent touchdown was one of the worst officiating gafs i have ever seen.
 
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Traderjoe123 said:
i thought i would bump this thread with quotes from the same man 2 months apart.... with said fuckstick making polar opposite statements..... in doing this i see from his backwoods mentality he is hedging his bets as he sees his probability of a loss is high.... but wow is he a filthy human being.
Click to expand...
I don’t know who this is directed at by holy shit it’s funny.
 
Inspekdah said:
hard to see any top 10 team losing to Fields. Dude went from second pick to 2nd team arena league.
Click to expand...
i cant tell if thats satire or if you truly are delusional. regardless i just watched dabo at a presser and that dude must not have a gag reflext because i dont think his dick left the back on his throat the entire time he was on the podium. i wonder it Venables was upset that he didnt get his load today?!
 
Traderjoe123 said:
i cant tell if thats satire or if you truly are delusional. regardless i just watched dabo at a presser and that dude must not have a gag reflext because i dont think his dick left the back on his throat the entire time he was on the podium. i wonder it Venables was upset that he didnt get his load today?!
Click to expand...

fields is probably a worst pro than Haskins. How did that work out?
 
Inspekdah said:
fields is probably a worst pro than Haskins. How did that work out?
Click to expand...
as much as i appreciate your baseless crystal ball claims. i would greatly appreciate if you chose to find another forum to spew your delusion. this isnt a thread about his nfl career or how good of a grandfather he would make. but again thank you for blessing me with you tarot cards
 
AliShaheed said:
"But if you're expecting the same talent level, depth, and coaching that showed up against NW to be taking the field against Clemson** then you're simply not being honest nor objective.
Click to expand...

Of course it be different, it has to be cause Clemson would have beat that osu team by 50. The problem for osu is I havnt seen a version of them this season that is close to the best we have seen out of Clemson. I’m totally willing to throw out the NW game cause I basically did the same for the 1st Irish game when looking at Clemson, seems fair to disregard both rather than trying to debate how much impact the missing players had in either game.

It just tough for me to find the places osu has advantages? I think Clemson has faced more solid offenses and they still have statistical edges in damn near every important defensive category. The sack rate against fields is really bad, as in 115th in country while Clemson top 5 in sack percentage. The tigers run d when in tact has been very tough, I’m just not convinced osu gonna be able to run it 40+ times with a lot of success. Osu allowing teams to complete 63% their passes, that gotta be concerning!

I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, anything can happen. Regardless the outcome the line seems absolutely justified to me, far from a overreaction to any one game by either team imo.
 
Traderjoe123 said:
im glad you caught that part... i guess id argue its a statictical anomoly AND an act of god for a team to get outplayed, outcoached, be the inferior team, refs to call such an atrocious game, key player player injuries, and a last minute drive that ended with 2 of the most in synch qb/wr tamdems in football totally reading each other wrong and causing an interception and for the outcome to be what it was. if that game is played 100 times last year ohio state wins 90-95 times. it was really me being sarcastic!

clemson needed ALL of those things to come to fruition to squeek out a win. so i have to ask, do you think those things happen again???? or was a higher power in charge of the outcome of that? (LSU was gods team in 2019 and OSU was the only team with a shot of derailing that) i guess i just cant see clemson getting that lucky again.

and yes i totally disagree the reversal of the fumble and subsequent touchdown was one of the worst officiating gafs i have ever seen.
Click to expand...
It was not a fumble. That's not even debatable under the rules. As for the other stuff, you watched a different game. I saw an evenly played game (overall,with OhioState starting off hot and Clemson winning going away) except that y'all kicked too many field goals instead of touchdowns. If that is how you see things, you probably shouldn't be betting this game. Ohio State got off to a fast start because the scripted offensive plays were so skillfully chosen. Clemson won the rest of the game 29-7.
 
M.W. said:
It was not a fumble. That's not even debatable under the rules. As for the other stuff, you watched a different game. I saw an evenly played game (overall,with OhioState starting off hot and Clemson winning going away) except that y'all kicked too many field goals instead of touchdowns. If that is how you see things, you probably shouldn't be betting this game. Ohio State got off to a fast start because the scripted offensive plays were so skillfully chosen. Clemson won the rest of the game 29-7.
Click to expand...

last 3-4 years clemson has a slightly higher margin of victory over osu than cuse!!! I dunno what “lucky” about the better coached more talented team beating the other every time they play?
 
Bottom line is basically every year the sec champ is the only team who has the talent level to stay with Clemson on a regular basis. Sure one game anything can happen but think this been kinda proven hasn’t it?? It’s Clemson and top the sec, then there the rest. It kinda like how osu feels bout rest the big10.
 
I can't say your analysis matched up with what we saw, but you won your bet, so congratulations.

I would recommend taking your winnings and putting them on the same team next Monday. Perhaps a bit on the over and team over as well,
 
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