BIG Week 7...

B.A.R.

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My apologies for getting it up late. I tried to put some post thoughts from last weekend in yesterday knowing today was a wash for me...

Current lines with totals...


Purdue at Wisconsin
Sat 10/14 113 Purdue +15½ -110 +500 o51½ -110
3:30PM 114 Wisconsin -15½ -110 -700 u51½ -110


Northwestern at Maryland
Sat 10/14 115 Northwestern -3 -120 -160 o49½ -110
3:30PM 116 Maryland +3 +100 +140 u49½ -110


Rutgers at Illinois
Sat 10/14 135 Rutgers +2½ -110 +115 o48½ -110
12:00PM 136 Illinois -2½ -110 -135 u48½ -110


Michigan at Indiana
Sat 10/14 141 Michigan -250 o45½ -110
12:00PM 142 Indiana +210 u45½ -110


Ohio State at Nebraska
Sat 10/14 183 Ohio State -24 -110 -2500 o56½ -110
7:30PM 184 Nebraska +24 -110 +1400 u56½ -110



Michigan State at Minnesota U
Sat 10/14 209 Michigan State -4 -110 -185 o40 -110
8:00PM 210 Minnesota U +4 -110 +160 u40 -110



I have a busy week personally this week so any thoughts/etc from anyone is very much appreciated to get the thread fired up for this weeks games...
 
Nebraska is 3-20 SU vs top 10 teams in the last 15 years and it's been since 1957 that the cornhuskers were this type of dog in Lincoln ( Oklahoma was -28 and won 32-7). Meaningless history but still tells a sad story.
 
Michigan State is 7-3 ats after Michigan since 2007.

Michigan State is 1-2 ats after Michigan the last 3 years. The win was a game against IU they led just 28-26 before a 24-0 4th quarter.

That is one thing Dantonio has changed with that program from before that. They used to be a solid fade the week after.
 
we're probably too nice to do what needs to be done, so i predict after the season. if its a 50 pt blowout though, the boosters may insist otherwise.
Fair enough on both points.

I root for NU to be good. The divisions need balancing and having a blue blood be good does wonders in general for the conference.
 
Fwiw on UM,

I had Indiana circled as a play for weeks. It is tough not getting the number I hoped for. It should be a tooth and nail game though.
 
Fair enough on both points.

I root for NU to be good. The divisions need balancing and having a blue blood be good does wonders in general for the conference.

i know. we've been a yuge disappointment. there's just no reason for it. everything in place except hiring good coaches to rule the West.
 
and i agree on the blue bloods. i like an upset like anyone else, but its no fun when notre dame is 5 and 7 or miami is 8 and 4.
 
So,

We discussed this during the summer but what it everyone's thoughts on Wisconsin going 12-0 and sliding right into a one game playoff to get into the playoff perhaps?

Obviously this is a few months away but if that happens and they upset OSU/PSU winner do you think they will get a spot being undefeated or no?
 
Well it's tough isn't it?

Schedule was already weak before the season started and their opponents on that schedule all turned out to be a lot worse than we thought, other than maybe Purdue ... byu way worse than expectation, nebraska way worse than my expectation anyway, NW way worse than anyones worst expectation ... the back half of their schedule is a little bit tougher. But if they go undefeated in the bigten what one loss team from another conference do you put ahead of them?

There are some other interesting things in play with USF and UCF. hard to see either losing before their season finale matchup. Neither team played anyone remotely good. What do you do with the winner of that game (assuming it is undefeated)? normally I am all about the undefeated conference team getting that shot .. but those two schedules are an atrocity.
 
Michigan State is 7-3 ats after Michigan since 2007.

Michigan State is 1-2 ats after Michigan the last 3 years. The win was a game against IU they led just 28-26 before a 24-0 4th quarter.

That is one thing Dantonio has changed with that program from before that. They used to be a solid fade the week after.

They still are in the first half though?
 
MSU at 4 right now, I'm going to take the points... but does anyone think this line climbs?
No clue there


10/08 6:08pm MICHST-4 -110 MINN4 -110
10/08 6:40pm MICHST-3.5 -110 MINN3.5 -110
10/08 6:43pm MICHST-3 -120 MINN3 +100
10/08 7:47pm MICHST-3 -110 MINN3 -110
10/08 8:02pm MICHST-3 -120 MINN3 +100
10/08 9:39pm MICHST-3 -115 MINN3 -105
10/09 1:45am MICHST-3 -120 MINN3 +100
10/09 8:25am MICHST-162 MINN+142 MICHST-3 -120 MINN3 +100
10/09 11:41am MICHST-140 MINN+120 MICHST-2.5 -110 MINN2.5 -110
10/09 12:06pm MICHST-150 MINN+130 MICHST-3 -110 MINN3 -110
10/09 12:08pm MICHST-170 MINN+150 MICHST-3 -125 MINN3 +105
10/09 12:09pm MICHST-185 MINN+160 MICHST-4 -110 MINN4 -110
10/09 12:13pm MICHST-175 MINN+155 MICHST-3.5 -110 MINN3.5 -110
10/09 12:17pm MICHST-185 MINN+160 MICHST-4 -110 MINN4 -110
10/09 5:02pm MICHST-185 MINN+160 MICHST-4 -110 MINN4 -110 40 -110 40 -110
10/09 11:07pm MICHST-185 MINN+160 MICHST-4 -110 MINN4 -110 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
10/10 9:34am MICHST-200 MINN+170 MICHST-4.5 -110 MINN4.5 -110 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
10/10 10:33am MICHST-185 MINN+160 MICHST-4 -110 MINN4 -110 40.5 -110 40.5 -110





Could see money on the home/primetime/dog angle...I guess...Minnesota is so bad though.
 
So,

We discussed this during the summer but what it everyone's thoughts on Wisconsin going 12-0 and sliding right into a one game playoff to get into the playoff perhaps?

Obviously this is a few months away but if that happens and they upset OSU/PSU winner do you think they will get a spot being undefeated or no?

The Big Ten had four teams in the top 11 of the preseason poll, and currently has three in the top 9. If a team comes out of that conference title game undefeated, I can't fathom they wouldn't get in.


Regarding this week's games:

- I laid the 4 with Sparty (small) based almost solely on what I've seen watching Minnesota's last two games in full and then factoring in the injuries.
- Hemmed and hawed about taking the 7 with Indiana, and when I refreshed it was 5.5, so laying off.
- Made a small play on Wisconsin at -15.5 and would add if it hits 14, but looks like it is heading back upward.
- No idea what to make of the Nebraska/OSU game. I expected a very down year from the Huskers with poor/inconsistent QB play (played season wins under 7 fairly big, and that was before the Jones injury); so far I'm seeing about what I expected. But 24 is a lot of points.
- I feel like a degenerate for wanting to take Illinois at under a field goal, but that was my immediate "no stats, just gut" reaction to seeing the line. I'm considerably more familiar with Illinois than I am with Rutgers, and my head is telling me to take a hard pass. But the degen voice in my head loves him some 9 am Big Ten action. So we'll see where I land there. Anyone else have thoughts on this one?
- Maryland-NW are just two teams I can't figure out. Staying away.
 
I took Illinois -2. George gives them a chance on offense. If he throws a couple picks, rutg will probably win, but I just give Illy a lot better chance of scoring in this one. Really, they badly outplayed Iowa the half (1st) that I watched.
 
Thanks for posting EFC.

I personally am just going off what people have said about George/Illinois to form my own opinion there.
 
I have no idea why Illinois is only -2 at home to Rutgers. I get that the Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye but the Illini have looked solid for major stretches when George has played and if he doesn't turn the ball over, I struggle to see how Illinois loses this game. The play here is George is basically a turnover machine but I think at home, another week of practice, and more importantly, a week of practice after a game, is potentially big.

I like the Purdue/Wisconsin U51. The Badgers have no look ahead issues here with Maryland next week but for this number, you think Wisconsin has to be highly efficient scoring the ball against the Boilermakers to really threaten this number. They had 9 offensive possessions last week and had four TD (one on a one play drive), four punts, and a FG. The defensive TD helped them certainly but Purdue has been solid defensively all year. Even if you look at the NU game, they got 9 points on defense and had two offensive TD set up by short fields on NU side of the ball and that was 33. So while getting 16-17 seems enticing, I feel the chance of 31-10 is far greater than 37-24. I could buy an argument for Purdue getting two+ TD as a solid team that has played solidly all year, I think the under is the safer and more prudent play.

Maryland ML is a great play for value. The game against OSU was just out of control from the start and they never got to settle in with how they want to play. But to trust Northwestern to win on the road is asking a lot. I know they've played two top teams their past two weeks so it's tough to judge how they fare against the middle of the conference, I simply don't trust this line. I just don't trust this your typical Northwestern team that is a solid 7-8 win team that will win games against equal or lesser teams.

I like the under in Michigan/Indiana because you have one of the five best defenses in college football with a QB who is simply going to play a simple, low impact offense. I struggle to see how a team gets to 24+ without great hope for turnovers and special teams type plays setting these teams up.

Don't have much of an opinion on MSU/Minnesota as I feel that I could easily see either team winning as I'm not sure MSU has an offense/scheme that travels well (it's tough to judge their second half because they have may gone ultra conservative due to the weather+QB situation on the other side) and playing a PJ Fleck team at night feels like a thing I wouldn't want money on. But I don't trust that Minnesota has the talent to hang with State.

Have to love the over in OSU/Nebraska even as it stretches up to 57/58. Nebraska plays enough tempo, as does OSU, to generate possessions and Nebraska has given up 35+ to Wisconsin, Oregon, and Arkansas State. Nebraska offense has been competent enough that if they don't just carelessly turn it over, I'd imagine them being good enough to get to around 20. I know they scored one TD on offense last week against Wisconsin but that was a weird game as they had 380 yards (6+ YPP), converted ok on 3rd down (7-15), and had only 4 penalties so it wasn't a situation where they were getting re-yards.

My week plays (from VEGAS!)
Purdue/Wisconsin U51
OSU/Nebraska O58
Illinois +3.5/Michigan -1 (6 pt tease)

Good luck guys. Willing to discuss and go back and forth on any of these.
 
Also might lean on Purdue +8 or 9 in the first half. Wisconsin 1st half so far this year has been a completely different defensive team. They've given up 50 points (10,14,6,10,10) in in the first half where they've given up only 21 points in the second half and 14 of those were kinda garbage time against Northwestern. I feel like Lehonard is waiting to see what the other team is trying to do and then makes great second half adjustments.
 
Also might lean on Purdue +8 or 9 in the first half. Wisconsin 1st half so far this year has been a completely different defensive team. They've given up 50 points (10,14,6,10,10) in in the first half where they've given up only 21 points in the second half and 14 of those were kinda garbage time against Northwestern. I feel like Lehonard is waiting to see what the other team is trying to do and then makes great second half adjustments.

I purposely have quit following Wisconsin too much from a betting perspective. I kind of made that oath this summer and after some flirtation have gotten back on my vows there...

With that being said, you are on a good angle here methinks. Obviously I am thinking back earlier to the USU/FAU games but those were perfect examples...
 
I would give you more Michigan thoughts but there is nothing really 'new' out there. They did say they will look at the RT issue more this week. Well, we'll see. You hear a lot and then see the complete opposite from them. The defense is super. That offense lacks in play-calling and cohesiveness. If they want to use the middle, use screens and run the ball with the hot hand consistently it will make JOK look much better, no doubt in my mind. That would equate to 23-27 points or so in this game, which would be more than enough. But, who the hell knows? I do think the defense helps out forcing some turnovers this week.
 
Wisconsin/Purdue - Will be interesting to see wisconsin defense challenged with scheme. Team is just crushing after halftime but haven't faced many competent passing teams yet with FAU still learning their offense when they played. Could be interesting against this play caller. I got in Wiscy's way each of the last two weeks, and got an undeserved win with NW and a loss with Nebraska. Not sure I want to keep going against. Purdue run defense is slightly better than their statistics I think. Everything seems lined about right.

Michigan/Indiana - Personally thought Lagow would have given Indiana a better shot in this game but it looks like Ramsey. How Michigan comes out emotionally will decide a lot ... starting to look more and more like a team can survive one loss and still make the playoffs this season so maybe they come out strong. Total seems about right as the teams defenses are the strength but at home Indiana will often push pace and if you run enough plays in cfb, totals line this low can be tough to cash. I think when you have a defense as good as Michigan does and an offense that just isn't gonna fool anyone that it is often easy to try and let your defense win you the game. I think Michigan would be smart to get a little more aggressive on offense so they don't have the defense playing under so much pressure every game. Let the defense bail you out when you make mistakes. Hell, look at last week (I realize it was in weather) and the number of mistakes the offense made in the 2h and how the defense kept bailing them out and keeping them in the game. Anyway, everything seems lined about right though though maybe it is a little short with Ramsey. Speaking of QB's, if Michigan loses another game, I think the wolverines should just start getting Peters some snaps.

Rutgers/Illinois - Sort of agree with Kobejames. Illinois largely outplayed Iowa last week and lost by 29 so they still have to learn how to win but this is a better team than they were week 1. Rutgers isn't. I think we see points.

OhioSt/Neb - I liked the under from the start but with the 18-20 mph winds, I have to think Nebraska and under are decent looks for most people now. TOSU qb has accuracy issues in perfect weather. Should see more running than your average game between the two.

Michigan State/Minny - Shrug. No idea. I do know that from a matchup perspective MSU fairs better defensively against a run heavy opponent, weak in the passing game. So my expectation would be that both defenses rule the day. But it is also totaled that way. Game should be a coin flip so the 4 points is somewhat enticing.
 
Remember for Northwestern Sr #2 tackler Godwin Igwebuike and MLB Fr #1 tackler Paddy Fisher are out first half from targeting calls last week.
 
I'm starting to get luke warm on Minnesota. Gophers off back-to-back loses and this being Fleck's primetime game vs a Big Ten big boy...seems like a big rally the team moment. He is good at that rallying energy and emotion thing, making people believe. I'm not generally high on Minnesota. But honestly didn't think Michigan St was that great either and not sure I saw much last week that made me believe they are better than I thought (made me believe Michigan was worse than I thought mostly). So with Min in that situation and with MSU off the superbowl situation...I'm starting to come around to how it lines up from that standpoint even if I don't love how it matches up on the field.
 
I feel the same way on Purdue-Wisconsin VK. I too was against Badgers last 2 weeks, ML'd both and my ass still hurts a little from it. But now I'm thinking again, Purdue might be the best team out of the the last 3 so this is really the spot I should be trying against them. I'm probably going to have to be on Purdue in some sense. UW running game and physicality can be lethal, but my biggest concern is turnovers, historically that is what Purdue does in games vs the top teams.
 
from 247 UM/IU sites...quick primer from IU perspective...








To kick off our stories previewing the Hoosiers, we check in with our sister site Inside Indianaand chat with Hoosiers beat writer Seth Tow about Indiana's perspective in the matchup. Check out what he had to say below, and follow him for all things Indiana on Twitter.

What should Michigan fans know about Indiana's offense? With new faces in the run game and at quarterback, how much does the offense still look like (former Indiana coach) Kevin Wilson's "CHAOS" offense as opposed to (new offensive coordinator) Mike DeBord's approach?

DeBord's offense looks completely different than Wilson's did. The "CHAOS" offense was aptly named -- Indiana's offense was often chaotic last year. I'm not sure how else to describe a team that had a 1,000-yard rusher that struggled to run the ball last year. Wilson just never committed to the running game, and Richard Lagow's inconsistency made it harder to overcome that when he wasn't at his best. When Wilson did run it, it was often an outside run. But DeBord seems to prefer running it up the middle, and true freshman Morgan Ellison is a running back that fits that style well.

Redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey has taken over as IU's starting quarterback after sharing duties with Lagow for the first four games. The offense unquestionably flows better with Ramsey at the helm, as his mobility adds another element for defenses to pay attention to. He doesn't have the arm strength that Lagow does, but he's been pretty accurate this season. It certainly helps when you have a receiver like Simmie Cobbs to throw to. Cobbs is a lot of fun to watch, and he's easily IU's most reliable receiver. Tight end Ian Thomas can also be dangerous in the pass game as well.

The other thing to watch with IU's offense is the pace. A lot of college offenses run no-huddle, fast-paced tempos, but I've never seen an offense operate at the speed this unit does. The Hoosiers really hustle up to the line and move quickly, and I think that's why Ramsey is a better fit than Lagow -- fewer incomplete passes allows IU to play really fast.

Indiana's defense has rapidly improved since Tom Allen came to town. What have been the keys to that success?

Two things have led to that success.

1) Tom Allen loves the blitz. You'll rarely see Indiana deploy a straight three-man rush. Cornerback or safety blitzes aren't uncommon for IU. And that approach has led to success. Indiana was 18th in the nation last year in tackles for loss, and 32nd in the country in sacks. The Hoosiers are right around there again this year, although numbers may be down because IU has already faced Ohio State and Penn State.

2) Allen's biggest talking point defensively is takeaways. He constantly talks about the importance of defensive takeaways, and his defense responded last year. The Hoosiers were one of two Big Ten teams with 10 or more interceptions and fumble recoveries in 2016. IU is off to a much slower start in the takeaway department this year, however, as the Hoosiers only have four in as many games.

There are some injuries in the secondary that have contributed to that, as sophomore defensive backs Marcelino Ball and A'Shon Riggins have missed a few games now. But it's still been a somewhat surprising drop-off given the way the unit excelled in forcing takeaways a year ago and that IU had the most returning defensive starters in the Big Ten.

What's the fan excitement level building up to this game, and did Michigan losing to Michigan State impact that?

It's a little hard to gauge. There's definitely more excitement for this game than a typical game, but not as much as you might think. It's definitely not where the excitement level was for the opening night game against Ohio State. IU is coming off a shutout win, but it was against FCS opponent Charleston Southern, so even that didn't generate a ton of buzz.

I'm expecting a big crowd — likely with a large Michigan contingent — but I'd be surprised if the student section doesn't show up strong on Saturday, at least for the beginning. A win over Michigan would be huge for fan excitement and buzz around this team going forward.

What players could give Michigan the most trouble on either side of the ball?

Offensively, Cobbs is the man to watch. He's fifth in the conference in receiving, and he's raised a lot of eyebrows with some of the plays he's made en route to doing so. He's a phenomenal athlete, and like I said, is just a lot of fun to watch go to work. A more under-the-radar name I'll throw out there is redshirt freshman Taysir Mack. He had a big game last week against Charleston Southern with 111 yards and two touchdowns. The chemistry between Mack and Ramsey (well, really between Ramsey and all his receivers, but especially with Mack) is obvious. It will be interesting to see if they link up for a big play against an infinitely more stout defense.

Defensively, keep an eye on Tegray Scales. The linebacker was an All-American last year, and his playmaking ability is undeniable. He's the leader of the defense (and really the leader of the whole team), and he leads by example. He's IU's leading tackler by far and he leads IU with 3.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. He's one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten. Also, cornerback Rashard Fant has been very quiet this year -- and it's because opponents have pretty much stopped throwing to his side of the field. He's an absolute lockdown DB capable of shutting down some really good receivers -- he kept Juwan Johnson in check against Penn State two weeks ago.

On special teams, Griffin Oakes seems to have regained his confidence after struggling last year. The 2015 Big Ten Kicker of the Year is perfect in both field goals and extra points so far this year. Also, Australian punter Haydon Whitehead is still adjusting to playing American football -- he grew up playing Aussie Rules -- but he can be a force in field position when he's on his game. His ability to punt with either leg is one of my personal favorite things to watch for during Indiana games.

What does Michigan need to do to win on Saturday?

Simply put, the Wolverines need to make Peyton Ramsey look like a freshman. Indiana's defense is its strength, but I'd argue it all starts with the offense. Against Ohio State, IU's offense was clicking in the first half and the Hoosiers led at halftime. But in the second half, IU fell into a slump offensively and went three and out frequently.

In turn, the defense tired out and the Buckeyes offense started to get going. This game will be a good test of Ramsey's maturity. He played in the Ohio State and Penn State games, but this is his first Big Ten start. If Michigan's defense can get off the field and force Ramsey into making mistakes, the Wolverines should win.

How could Indiana pull off the upset?

For the Hoosiers, they need Ramsey to make some plays. He's shown that capability, even against the good opponents IU has faced, so far. Against weaker opponents, it becomes obvious that when IU's offense goes three and out and the defense doesn't get much rest, the opposing offense starts to get momentum going. If the Hoosiers can avoid that, they should at least be able to keep the game close, if not have a chance at an upset.

Also, the Hoosiers have to avoid the fumbling problems that have plagued them of late. In two of the last three games, IU has fumbled at the goal line and been lucky to recover in the end zone for a touchdown. In the game when that didn't happen, IU still fumbled three times. It will be tough to beat any team when you put the ball on the ground that much, let alone a ranked opponent.

Author
Zach Shaw @_ZachShaw
 
That is interesting, I was not aware how fast IU was running the O. I haven't seen much of them since the Penn St game.

That's the thing, you can go fast on O, but if your O isn't especially good and if you face a D like Michigan's that can be a bad recipe. The most glaring example was Vanderbilt the last year Bobby Johnson was there. They had an average to below average O and had a decent D, that last year they wanted to run hurry up no huddle, but the O was always going three-and-out just killed them.

I don't think IU is that great on O and we know Michigan is good on D. Just a really tough matchup for IU, even though they've played them tough the last 2 years, just dont feel like that this year. Ramsey could prove me wrong. It's all on him. If the O can atleast not be horrible the IU D should be ok.
 
With that being said, that average is 75 ish the last 3 games so they have been trending a bit downward.
 
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