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VirginiaCavs

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A Big Bet For Big Machine Sanitizer 400



NASCAR Cup Series: Big Machine Sanitizer 400
Sunday, July 5, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (NBC) at Indianapolis Motors Speedway



Special Venue

Also known as The Brickyard, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a relatively famous venue in the NASCAR Cup Series.

For starters, it is actually the world's highest-capacity sporting venue as it is capable of seating 257,325 fans. On Sunday, though, no fan will be allowed to sit in one of those seats.

Probably the main reason for the fame of this racing track is that it hosts The Indianapolis 500, which is one of NASCAR’s most well-known racing events.

Race Info: Length

The Brickyard 400 is so-called because, in accumulating 160 laps, and with each lap requiring 2.5 miles, drivers will have completed 400 miles.

While the starting lineup is not available, we can press ahead with our betting pick because starting position will hardly matter due to the length of the race.

With my wager, I want to focus on Denny Hamlin. Starting position repeatedly does not matter for Hamlin at this track.

Last year, for example, he started 33rd and still finished sixth.

Track Info

Each lap requires 2.5 miles to complete.

In each lap, drivers will have navigated four quarter-mile turns, two 5/8-mile straightaways, and two 1/8-mile straightaways.

Its flatness is measured by the degree of banking: each turn is only 9.2 degrees and the straightaways aren’t banked at all.

The shape of this racing venue can best be described as a rectangular oval.

Its surface is constructed by asphalt and brick material.

These bricks that you can see at the start-finish line are part of what makes the track special.

Traditionally, the winning team kneels at and kisses the bricks in order to celebrate.

Why Flatness Matters

Flatness is important because Hamlin is absolutely comfortable racing at flatter tracks.

If you look at Hamlin’s list of favorite racing tracks based on his average finishing position there, many of them are relatively flat.

Richmond, for example, is one of his best tracks and it offers turns that are banked at only 14 degrees.

He also thrives at Phoenix, Martinsville, and Pocono, which are all flatter than Richmond.

New Hampshire is another great spot for him and its banking makes it even flatter than Indianapolis.

So, six of Hamlin’s eight best racing tracks can be said to be very flat. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of these six tracks.

Form

Hamlin is enjoying a solid year overall and this is most recently evident in the fact that he has finished top-two in three of his last four races.

In the one exception, he finished fourth.

History

Hamlin thrives at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

At this track, he has finished top-six in five of his last six attempts.

While his earlier struggles in Indianapolis mar his overall average finishing position, his excellent recent history shows that he has figured things out.

Match-Up With Martin Truex Jr.

I foresee Hamlin having the best chance of finishing ahead of Martin Truex Jr.

In contrast to Hamlin, Truex Jr. suffers poor form, finishing 10th place or worse in three of his past four races.

Moreover, in terms of history, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is arguably Truex Jr.’s worst venue. He averages a 33.33 average finishing position in his last three attempts there.

He also averages a 21.33 average finishing position in 15 career races in Indianapolis.

The Verdict

Oddsmakers are offering us a superb betting opportunity by matching up Hamlin with Truex Jr.

Hamlin enjoys a number of advantages, most explicitly his overall form and history, at this track.

For the above reasons, bet on Hamlin to finish ahead of Truex Jr.


Best Bet: Hamlin Over Truex Jr. at -150 with BetOnline
 
Was waiting on this. Not sure I will pull the trigger but Harvick being -140 vs both Kyle Busch and Hamlin here is insane to me. Agree on Hamlin over Truex. Get em, VC
 
Do you think -150 is too high? I suppose it‘s not much more than -140. But up there.
 
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