Big Futures Bet

[lvmike32]

Hey All, have decided to put down a big bet (10units) for Bama to NOT win the NC at -250. I watched the Texas game and believe Bama will get better as the season goes on. But I just don't think their OL and WRs are NC caliber this year. I don't see the typical 1st Round picks in the WR and OL rooms on this team. And the D looked awful defending the pass when Ewers was healthy - they were putting no pressure on Ewers. Only time you saw Andersen early in game was when he kept Texas drives going by being offsides. Ewers might have thrown for 400 yards on them if he hadn't gotten hurt. And Card had a gimpy ankle. Also, if the Texas DB tackles Young for the sack on that last drive Texas wins and this line is a lot more than -250.

Schedule wise they are @Ark, @Tenn, @Old Miss while getting A&M, LSU and Miss St at home. I believe LSU will make great improvement as the season wears on under Kelly. A&M should too but who knows - but the talent is there. But that's a pretty tough schedule right there if you ask me - I think this is the year we could see the gap close and they lose 1 or even 2 in the East. Except for Kelly, all those teams have coaches that have been there a few years now and know how to play Bama - and sure looks like the talent gap might be less TY. Then you add in the likely SEC Championship game vs. GA. Then the Semis/NC vs. GA again, OSU/Michigan, ??.

I know they will improve but I just think the -250 is pretty cheap for the gauntlet they have to run for me to lose this bet.

Of course, I almost always lose these bets I make on my own too LOL.

Always like to hear feedback. I might hold off a week as Bama has a couple patsies coming up so I don't think the odds will go up much before the @Ark game in 3 weeks.

thanks

 

[HUNT]

Hey All, have decided to put down a big bet (10units) for Bama to NOT win the NC at -250. I watched the Texas game and believe Bama will get better as the season goes on. But I just don't think their OL and WRs are NC caliber this year. I don't see the typical 1st Round picks in the WR and OL rooms on this team. And the D looked awful defending the pass when Ewers was healthy - they were putting no pressure on Ewers. Only time you saw Andersen early in game was when he kept Texas drives going by being offsides. Ewers might have thrown for 400 yards on them if he hadn't gotten hurt. And Card had a gimpy ankle. Also, if the Texas DB tackles Young for the sack on that last drive Texas wins and this line is a lot more than -250.

Schedule wise they are @Ark, @Tenn, @Old Miss while getting A&M, LSU and Miss St at home. I believe LSU will make great improvement as the season wears on under Kelly. A&M should too but who knows - but the talent is there. But that's a pretty tough schedule right there if you ask me - I think this is the year we could see the gap close and they lose 1 or even 2 in the East. Except for Kelly, all those teams have coaches that have been there a few years now and know how to play Bama - and sure looks like the talent gap might be less TY. Then you add in the likely SEC Championship game vs. GA. Then the Semis/NC vs. GA again, OSU/Michigan, ??.

I know they will improve but I just think the -250 is pretty cheap for the gauntlet they have to run for me to lose this bet.

Of course, I almost always lose these bets I make on my own too LOL.

Always like to hear feedback. I might hold off a week as Bama has a couple patsies coming up so I don't think the odds will go up much before the @Ark game in 3 weeks.

thanks

You got balls. You have to beat more than BAMA the TEAM to win this bet.

 

[B.A.R.]

I understand the analysis, for sure...

They will have very little chance vs a healthy Jorja team in Atlanta and any posssible rematch in the MNC (we know that the committee will refuse to put them in a semifinal).

My only issue overall, the country as a whole looks down this year.

Other than the Dawgs, I do not see a truly dominant team.

 

[lvmike32]

Hey guys, thanks for the feedback. Totally understand.

I had a total brain freeze on this play - I thought and was reading the -250 odds like it was -125. I was going to put $2500 to win $2000. When it came up to win $1000 instead I was like WTF was I thinking. Total idiot. So I've decided not to bet it. I still think it's a good bet but not great. Not worth the risk or to tie up the bankroll. But I do think Bama will lose at least one in the East and then to GA - don't know if they get in with 2 L. But you're right in that other teams aren't looking all that great either - Clemson looked awful to me with DJ, Utah already pretty much out, B12 looks weak, USC too weak on D likely and year away, OSU not looking great yet, etc. I do think GA beat down of Oregon was pretty impressive and they are likely the best team again.

But I just don't see that NFL 1st round talent on Bama this year in the OL and WR and RB. It's one thing when you have talent like that and have a clunker game, but I think the Texas game will repeat itself a few times this year. They'll have their hands full in those road games I believe. I think the teams in the East have closed the talent gap. But I don't have to worry about now LOL - can just sit back and watch.

Anyway, thanks again and sorry for false alarm.

 

[B.A.R.]

Hey guys, thanks for the feedback. Totally understand.

I had a total brain freeze on this play - I thought and was reading the -250 odds like it was -125. I was going to put $2500 to win $2000. When it came up to win $1000 instead I was like WTF was I thinking. Total idiot. So I've decided not to bet it. I still think it's a good bet but not great. Not worth the risk or to tie up the bankroll. But I do think Bama will lose at least one in the East and then to GA - don't know if they get in with 2 L. But you're right in that other teams aren't looking all that great either - Clemson looked awful to me with DJ, Utah already pretty much out, B12 looks weak, USC too weak on D likely and year away, OSU not looking great yet, etc. I do think GA beat down of Oregon was pretty impressive and they are likely the best team again.

But I just don't see that NFL 1st round talent on Bama this year in the OL and WR and RB. It's one thing when you have talent like that and have a clunker game, but I think the Texas game will repeat itself a few times this year. They'll have their hands full in those road games I believe. I think the teams in the East have closed the talent gap. But I don't have to worry about now LOL - can just sit back and watch.

Anyway, thanks again and sorry for false alarm.

Think this is a good thread to keep going though...

The lack of WR threats was concerning. I know GPS etc were/thought the line would be better, but that was not totally the case last week. I am sure things will improve in that regard.

 

[lvmike32]

Yeah, I was riding and lost on the Bama 1H and Game train (had -18 on game too). It'll be interesting to see how it plays out - I definitely will not be afraid to bet against them now with a team with a pulse if the oddsmakers keep over inflating the numbers on them. Lot of good cappers seem to have struggled early this year so far, but sure looks like it's going to be a surprising and exciting year (except if GA remains totally dominant).