Might as well toss a thread together for the game and go from there...
This is the first year in 3 years without having a Super Bowl future playing in the game. Obviously last years hit on TB at 50 will never be replicated in this league I don't think. The year before was the horror of a 4th quarter in losing the SF future. I dipped in once again and came up with another Jimmy G special last week for my last stand at a future this year... alas... on to props and other fun stuff...
I'll readily admit that I wasn't high on this Bengals team. A few games mid-season showed me that they do not have a good offensive line. In my estimation, they were gonna need to shore that up before they were gonna make a move in the playoffs. The brilliance of Joey Ballgame and guys like Chase is why this team is so special and has made it to the big stage. They also go out and WIN games in the 2nd half. That has been the difference in these playoffs. The Titans had a very uneventful gameplan and some crucial bad mistakes to lose the divisional round. The Chiefs were in damn near victory formation late in the half, didn't take any points and came out like imposters in the 2nd half. You simply cannot do that against this resilient team. Congrats to the Bengals and a fanbase that has been waiting for this a long time. I'm sure Jump and Twita are absolutey in heaven right now.
Meanwhile, on the other side, you have the LA Rams, a team money COULD buy. Obviously, as a life-long suffering Lions fan I have a few thoughts about this team and their QB. First of all, let me say that residing in SE Michigan is hilarious because you have 50% rooting hard core for Fratty. Meanwhile the other 50% blame him for all the Lions troubles and want to see him fail. The toughest jobs in sports locally are being a starting QB and a starting Goaltender. You simply will never get a fair shake. Here's the deal, Matt is a helluva QB. In his Lions tenure, they never had a legit running game and maybe had 1 very good defense. That particular defense was the 2014 team that honestly should have won 1-2 games in the playoffs. That was a heckuva team. People like to say he has failed in the playoffs. Well, team-wise, sure. But, he had excellent games on the road vs Nawlins and Dallas while the game in Seattle was not great by all accounts. So, were their questions? Sure. Has he passed the test so far? Absolutely. Some guys get a narrative about them and only a championship here may shake that for him.
As far as this game goes, I do think the Bengals storybook run ends here. This feels like an under game, yet my final score feels like 31-20. So, who knows? Obviously I am not taking this Bengals team lightly but this Rams defense should do enough here to get the job done. I'll get more into potential plays against the spread etc as the week goes on...
What I can share now is 3 props I have played...
Cooper Kupp to score Anytime -200
Yup, laying 2 to 1 here but he will score. He is that good and I expect that this will cash in the first half to be honest. I think this is priced pretty well and have seen -190 at a few shops since.
Total sacks BOTH teams combined o4.5 -135
Oh, c'mon now. You know damn well how I have this part of the game capped. The Rams will get to Burrow several times. I can see them getting this on their own. O the other side, Fratty is pretty good at getting rid of the ball but we'll see 1-2 here I'd think. In their last 12 games, he has been sacked 28 times! This is after only 7 sacks in the first 8 games. This is a gift number imo
Cam Akers longest rush OVER 13.5
Cam, with maybe the most incredible in-season comeback in history has looked damn good. He looks fast and elusive at times. The only downfall is the fumbles but hopefully he doesn't fumble early here and not get a lot of carries. I doubt it. For my early projected score, we will see plenty of running in the 2h of the game in which the Rams will be looking to salt it away. That helps this. Now, lets get to the fun part....
Bengals rush defense(RB's only, longest rush)
McKinnon 14
CEH 14
Foreman 45
Jacobs 35
Chubb 35
Johnson 13
Williams 19
Gore 23
(Baltimore only ran ball 11 times)
Williams 14
Gordon 13
Wilson 12
Deebo 27
Ekeler 15
This is the last 9 games so I think it gives us a solid set of data.
Akers 14, 9 and 15 are his longest in the playoff rounds. The 9 represents the Tampa game, and we all know how good their run defense is.
Credit to @Lexington 125 on the Akers prop. He got the ball rolling there.
So, that is my start. I may play a few more props, I may not. This is a very easy game to go nuts on do to the standalone nature and the stature of the game. Just be careful boxing yourself in or taking bad numbers.
More to come!
This is the first year in 3 years without having a Super Bowl future playing in the game. Obviously last years hit on TB at 50 will never be replicated in this league I don't think. The year before was the horror of a 4th quarter in losing the SF future. I dipped in once again and came up with another Jimmy G special last week for my last stand at a future this year... alas... on to props and other fun stuff...
I'll readily admit that I wasn't high on this Bengals team. A few games mid-season showed me that they do not have a good offensive line. In my estimation, they were gonna need to shore that up before they were gonna make a move in the playoffs. The brilliance of Joey Ballgame and guys like Chase is why this team is so special and has made it to the big stage. They also go out and WIN games in the 2nd half. That has been the difference in these playoffs. The Titans had a very uneventful gameplan and some crucial bad mistakes to lose the divisional round. The Chiefs were in damn near victory formation late in the half, didn't take any points and came out like imposters in the 2nd half. You simply cannot do that against this resilient team. Congrats to the Bengals and a fanbase that has been waiting for this a long time. I'm sure Jump and Twita are absolutey in heaven right now.
Meanwhile, on the other side, you have the LA Rams, a team money COULD buy. Obviously, as a life-long suffering Lions fan I have a few thoughts about this team and their QB. First of all, let me say that residing in SE Michigan is hilarious because you have 50% rooting hard core for Fratty. Meanwhile the other 50% blame him for all the Lions troubles and want to see him fail. The toughest jobs in sports locally are being a starting QB and a starting Goaltender. You simply will never get a fair shake. Here's the deal, Matt is a helluva QB. In his Lions tenure, they never had a legit running game and maybe had 1 very good defense. That particular defense was the 2014 team that honestly should have won 1-2 games in the playoffs. That was a heckuva team. People like to say he has failed in the playoffs. Well, team-wise, sure. But, he had excellent games on the road vs Nawlins and Dallas while the game in Seattle was not great by all accounts. So, were their questions? Sure. Has he passed the test so far? Absolutely. Some guys get a narrative about them and only a championship here may shake that for him.
As far as this game goes, I do think the Bengals storybook run ends here. This feels like an under game, yet my final score feels like 31-20. So, who knows? Obviously I am not taking this Bengals team lightly but this Rams defense should do enough here to get the job done. I'll get more into potential plays against the spread etc as the week goes on...
What I can share now is 3 props I have played...
Cooper Kupp to score Anytime -200
Yup, laying 2 to 1 here but he will score. He is that good and I expect that this will cash in the first half to be honest. I think this is priced pretty well and have seen -190 at a few shops since.
Total sacks BOTH teams combined o4.5 -135
Oh, c'mon now. You know damn well how I have this part of the game capped. The Rams will get to Burrow several times. I can see them getting this on their own. O the other side, Fratty is pretty good at getting rid of the ball but we'll see 1-2 here I'd think. In their last 12 games, he has been sacked 28 times! This is after only 7 sacks in the first 8 games. This is a gift number imo
Cam Akers longest rush OVER 13.5
Cam, with maybe the most incredible in-season comeback in history has looked damn good. He looks fast and elusive at times. The only downfall is the fumbles but hopefully he doesn't fumble early here and not get a lot of carries. I doubt it. For my early projected score, we will see plenty of running in the 2h of the game in which the Rams will be looking to salt it away. That helps this. Now, lets get to the fun part....
Bengals rush defense(RB's only, longest rush)
McKinnon 14
CEH 14
Foreman 45
Jacobs 35
Chubb 35
Johnson 13
Williams 19
Gore 23
(Baltimore only ran ball 11 times)
Williams 14
Gordon 13
Wilson 12
Deebo 27
Ekeler 15
This is the last 9 games so I think it gives us a solid set of data.
Akers 14, 9 and 15 are his longest in the playoff rounds. The 9 represents the Tampa game, and we all know how good their run defense is.
Credit to @Lexington 125 on the Akers prop. He got the ball rolling there.
So, that is my start. I may play a few more props, I may not. This is a very easy game to go nuts on do to the standalone nature and the stature of the game. Just be careful boxing yourself in or taking bad numbers.
More to come!
