Betting NFL Super Bowl Futures vs. Moneyline Rollover

[JML4481]

Anyone willing to delve into numbers to try to find an advantage here....would like to examine the numbers and try to find +EV if there is any.

my book(local)
40002 ATLANTA FALCONS +2000
40004 BUFFALO BILLS +7500
40005 CAROLINA PANTHERS +1600
40015 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +1400
40016 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +1200
40018 LOS ANGELES RAMS +600
40020 MINNESOTA VIKINGS +275
40021 NEW ENGLAND PATROITS +145
40022 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +650
40026 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +950
40027 PITTSBURGH STEELERS +275
40031 TENNESSEE TITANS +9500


I think with the loss of Wentz, the teams that face Philly next Rd might have a bump in value in the future market rather than a rollover.

In the AFC I don't see any value with a current future, compared to a rollover...

Currently holding preseason SB Futures for 2 units on Pittsburgh at +950 and Carolina+2000
Kinda feeling KC and New Orleans

Thoughts?
Comments?

 

[JML4481]

Any chance of New Orleans, Carolina, or Atlanta NOT being a favorite at Philly, albeit a small one?...might be an angle to think about?

 

[kdog]

None of those should be favored at Philly.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Who the hell would bet on favored Philly with Foles?

 

[JML4481]

None of those should be favored at Philly.

If New Orleans wins, and rather decisively(7+), I would not be shocked to see them 1.5-2.5 favs at Philadelphia.

 

[D-Woww]

yeah sadly I do think NO is a 2.5 pt fav. I'd take the birds, but still.

One thing to consider: if your book has "open parlays" like mine does, that can be more profitable than a moneyline rollover. For example, if you like the saints to win the super bowl, you do a 4 team parlay using the saints in rd 1 and leaving 3 "open spots" which you can fill win with the saints week by week

 

[JML4481]

Even better idea with the open spots parlay!! Good lookin' out D-Woww!

 

[wiseplayer]

How do the Vikings not get to the SB? Looks like the best team by a lot to me.

 

[The Farm]

Holding a September saints 75/1 and November 10/1 ticket. A tiny 11/1 pitt ticket as well.
Gonna throw a dab on the rams.
I really do not like the rest of the odds.