Betting expert says FSU to be underdogs at Miami-Yahoo Sports

[Cappingchubster11]

Wondering if anyone has seen this article, and what their thoughts were. With the CoC hearing looming, could this have an effect on the line? I personally don’t think it affects #5.. If there’s one thing he has proven, it’s that he does not let the off the field stuff get to him. The football field is home for this guy, and he has shown an incredible ability to block things out. Thoughts?

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf...ected-to-be-underdogs-at-miami-194455458.html

 

[JumpOnBoard]

RJ bell and expert eh

 

[CollegeKingRex]

I would bet my left testicle on Florida State if they come out at less than -3 (which is possible, if Lindetrain's tweets from the other night prove correct).

I would bet both testicles on Florida State if they are somehow in position to be a dog.

 

[Cappingchubster11]

Glad to see you would be on FSU as well Rexy.. Tailed you last week vs UoL and made some good coin. I dont usually like betting on my teams, but sometimes if the value is there... Its there.

 

[captjohn67]

FSU -6

 

[GoIrish!]

i'd bet it if they were under a touch down and it would be the biggest bet of the year...easily

 

[ProV1Colt]

My initial thought was Noles -7, big line move down to -4 similar to Lullvul gm.

 

[jimmymo]

Miami 1st half for me......

 

[ManchesterUk]

Randall Bussack wouldnt know shit from clay.

 

[Elbutre88]

rj bell is an idiot.

 

[M.W.]

I would expect the line to be between FSU -4 and a pick. Oddsmaker has been slow to adjust to Miami's improvement, but the numbers I see now show that the oddsmaker has FSU by 7 on a neutral field. Miami is in a couple of extremely favorable situations worth an extra 7-10 points versus the power ratings (though not versus the line, since the oddsmaker has been using a 3 or 4 point adjustment to take most of the value out of one of these two angles).

If Winston has been shaving points, then all bets are off. If what we have seen is what FSU really is, then I expect Miami to win.

A further note: Dr Bob has been winning this year, and not just on his weekly play on Miami, so he is moving lines again. He will almost surely have a 4- or 5-star play on Miami, and the line will move a lot in the middle of the week, so time your bets accordingly depending on whom you like.

 

[lindetrain]

Miami has been getting a ton of respect in the market recently. I suppose it's Dr. Bob playing them, but there has been virtually zero buyback the other way after they get steamed. Very few, if anyone, made them favorites in Blacksburg, yet they ended up closing 3, and won by 24. Last week, no one had them above 13 against UNC, they closed 16-16.5, and won by 27. I don't think there's any question they're now rated higher than Louisville in PRs, and given FSU didn't exactly look like world beaters in covering against the Cards last week, I have to imagine the number is under a FG. I've been wrong plenty of times before, but my numbers will have it something like FSU -1. Regardless, I think the U is pretty much a must-play getting any points in this spot.

 

[lindetrain]

FWIW, Sagarin makes FSU in the -1.5 to -2 range. He, however, does have Louisville rated a half point higher than Miami.

 

[PokeyFSU]

A couple things...

(1) Winston is not shaving points. Our defense getting torched every 1h is one thing. Our offensive line getting blown off the ball is another. And our running game had been non-existent til the Louisville game. None of these things are controllable by Jameis, and both are the reason we are down every game at the half. Jameis makes some pretty poor decisions off the field, but shaving points for a few hundred dollars is not one of them.

(2) Miami could very well beat us next week, and I will not be betting on the Noles regardless of what line comes out or where it moves. The U is playing good football right now. They have a solid running game and Kaaya has done nothing but get better and better as the season has gone on. With Louisville, I didn't believe in Will Gardner - and he showed why. Kaaya is going to give us some problems and he has some pretty damn good (and big) targets to throw the ball to. Add that to a very capable running game.... on the road... You'd have to line Miami -7 or more to get me to touch FSU.

 

[M.W.]

FWIW, Sagarin makes FSU in the -1.5 to -2 range. He, however, does have Louisville rated a half point higher than Miami.

Remember, both of the teams' ratings are skewed by the fact the teams met in the opener, with Kaaya in his first game. Take that game away, and Sagarin would have Miami 3.5 or 4 points better than UL.

 

[M.W.]

Good stuff, Pokey. I bet a lot and wind up watching a bunch of really random games instead of the high-profile matchups. But of course I watched Clemson-FSU, and FSU's O-line really was pretty bad against Clemson. I'm sure your candid assessments of other problems is accurate. I just look at the numbers and see an enormous drop-off. I'm not a yards-per-play fetishist, but here are FSU's offensive/defensive yppl splits the last three years:

2012: 7.00/3.85
2013: 7.67/4.09
2014: 6.60/5.31

 

[PokeyFSU]

My guess is it opens FSU -6 and closes closer to a pick than it does the opener. Except this time, the movement will be warranted.

 

[gps_3]

A couple things...

(1) Winston is not shaving points. Our defense getting torched every 1h is one thing. Our offensive line getting blown off the ball is another. And our running game had been non-existent til the Louisville game. None of these things are controllable by Jameis, and both are the reason we are down every game at the half. Jameis makes some pretty poor decisions off the field, but shaving points for a few hundred dollars is not one of them.

(2) Miami could very well beat us next week, and I will not be betting on the Noles regardless of what line comes out or where it moves. The U is playing good football right now. They have a solid running game and Kaaya has done nothing but get better and better as the season has gone on. With Louisville, I didn't believe in Will Gardner - and he showed why. Kaaya is going to give us some problems and he has some pretty damn good (and big) targets to throw the ball to. Add that to a very capable running game.... on the road... You'd have to line Miami -7 or more to get me to touch FSU.

No way Jameis is shaving points IMO. At least not so his buddy from HS can pocket a few grand. I can believe that he told his buddy that they come out flat in the first half and don't get going until the half, but as far as outright shaving, no way

 

[PokeyFSU]

Good stuff, Pokey. I bet a lot and wind up watching a bunch of really random games instead of the high-profile matchups. But of course I watched Clemson-FSU, and FSU's O-line really was pretty bad against Clemson. I'm sure your candid assessments of other problems is accurate. I just look at the numbers and see an enormous drop-off. I'm not a yards-per-play fetishist, but here are FSU's offensive/defensive yppl splits the last three years:

2012: 7.00/3.85
2013: 7.67/4.09
2014: 6.60/5.31

It hasn't been pretty. I really want to believe that we are better defensively than we are... but we have taken a huge step backwards on that side of the ball. We lost some great players and a great DC, and I don't think we have filled those shoes yet.

I think the Over next weekend will be worth a look. The 2nd halves of these games seem to continue convincing people that we are the 2013 version of FSU, and we are not. At some point we are just an above average football team, with an elite quarterback, and a defense that is getting respect based off what it has been the last few years. We haven't played a complete game all year... why would we finally do that next week on the road against a rival that just happens to be hitting their stride at the right time?? Maybe the UVA game this weekend changes things. Hell, maybe we lose the UVA game this weekend.

 

[Gordon gekko]

Florida St -4

 

[Alan Tongue]

RJ Bell Betting expert :rofl:

they must have put Miami up as favourite today, and thats what crashed the systems in Vegas. Miami will be a trendy pick by the "experts" in the lead up to the game because of FSU's last 2 games. But any bookmaker that puts up the unbeaten #2 ranked defending National Champs as outsider against a 3 loss unranked team should hand in their license

 

[TheGarfather]

I think its interesting how we heard that FSU just had to face Clemson and Notre Dame and then it was clear sailing to the playoff, yet they struggled like hell with Ok St. Then after getting by Clemson they just had to face Notre Dame and it would be clear sailing to the playoff. Scraped by Notre Dame. Then they just had to face Louisville and it was clear sailing to the playoff. Scraped by UL. Now its going to be "just have to get past Miami". I'm here to tell you that Virginia is a decent team, Miami is a decent team, Florida hates them, BC isn't great but they're no pushover. Then ACC game vs Duke (who sucks), Miami again, or a pain in the ass GT team. This remaining schedule is anything but a walk in the park for FSU and the media has over-rated them every step of the way.

 

[lindetrain]

Too bad there's no real accountability to all these claims in the event everyone is wrong. I remember a thread six weeks back with people claiming Mizzou was free money against Indiana...

 

[Alan Tongue]

Too bad there's no real accountability to all these claims in the event everyone is wrong. I remember a thread six weeks back with people claiming Mizzou was free money against Indiana...

Ill be accountable. My opinion is based on me as a bookmaker. If Miami go up as favourite I'll go up best price in the world Miami and let the arbers fill their boots

 

[Carolina Guy]

I think its interesting how we heard that FSU just had to face Clemson and Notre Dame and then it was clear sailing to the playoff, yet they struggled like hell with Ok St. Then after getting by Clemson they just had to face Notre Dame and it would be clear sailing to the playoff. Scraped by Notre Dame. Then they just had to face Louisville and it was clear sailing to the playoff. Scraped by UL. Now its going to be "just have to get past Miami". I'm here to tell you that Virginia is a decent team, Miami is a decent team, Florida hates them, BC isn't great but they're no pushover. Then ACC game vs Duke (who sucks), Miami again, or a pain in the ass GT team. This remaining schedule is anything but a walk in the park for FSU and the media has over-rated them every step of the way.

As much as I hate to admit it, dook doesn't suck. But if you think they do, I guess, teams like ohio state sucks this year too? Neither is my belief, but simply making a point.

 

[Carolina Guy]

I think its interesting how we heard that FSU just had to face Clemson and Notre Dame and then it was clear sailing to the playoff, yet they struggled like hell with Ok St. Then after getting by Clemson they just had to face Notre Dame and it would be clear sailing to the playoff. Scraped by Notre Dame. Then they just had to face Louisville and it was clear sailing to the playoff. Scraped by UL. Now its going to be "just have to get past Miami". I'm here to tell you that Virginia is a decent team, Miami is a decent team, Florida hates them, BC isn't great but they're no pushover. Then ACC game vs Duke (who sucks), Miami again, or a pain in the ass GT team. This remaining schedule is anything but a walk in the park for FSU and the media has over-rated them every step of the way.

As much as I hate to admit it, dook doesn't suck. But if you think they do, I guess, teams like ohio state sucks this year too? Neither is my belief, but simply making a point.

And if that doesn't resonate with you - this will. I guess Oregon (sucked) about ten years ago as well during there first couple of years of rebirth?

 

[Br@ssknux]

Granted Miami's schedule has not been great this year, but here are their rankings in various categories that I pay attention to:

All vs FBS teams only:

Offensive yards per play: 4th
Rushing ypc: 16th
Passer Rating: 10th

Defensive YPP: 9th
Defense Ypc against: 29th
Passer rating against: 21st

They are one of the most statistically balanced teams in the country. I've really been impressed with them this year. If they had any kind of home field advantage, it would help them that much more. As for the FSU game, based on how I cap, I'm probably going to be on them as well if they're dogged. They'll probably appear to have the advantage in all the phases on paper. You can't cap for two defenders running into each other on a sure INT or a forward fumble into the EZ on 3rd and goal though.

 

[jimmyshivers]

I'm with RJ (fml) & Br@ss here, my numbers (considering this season's stats only) made Miami -4. Been pretty close to where the closing # has been on Miami games this year (-5 in Blacksburg, -18 vs Chapel Hill) and have been riding this team the last several weeks, Miami may not open up the fav, but they will more than likely end up there imo. It's been amazing watching this FSU team luckbox their way to W's every week as opponents capitulate to them again and again, but at some point this year there going to run into a team who isn't intimidated by playing them and will actually continue to make plays for 60 minutes. Whether that's in the playoffs or next week, I don't know. But give me more than 3 with Miami and I'll take my chances with what my numbers make as the better team getting points at home

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Psst....... It's FSU -2.5 :shake:

 

[gps_3]

Psst....... It's FSU -2.5 :shake:

Seeing -1.5 on twitter

 

[Silkydiamonds]

BOL opened -2.5 -115, now -2 -110. I just took -2. Gonna put it up in my thread when I get a shot. Prolly will dip in again as long as it's under 6, especially when limits expand.

 

[Elbutre88]

yepppp

 

[gps_3]

No way I bet FSU as inconsistent as they've been, unless it's to take them 2H when Jameis is actually trying (g). How much of this is just people wanting FSU to lose and wanting to build up any halfway decent team that plays them? I haven't watched a single play of Miami's, but are they any good?

 

[PokeyFSU]

No way I bet FSU as inconsistent as they've been, unless it's to take them 2H when Jameis is actually trying (g). How much of this is just people wanting FSU to lose and wanting to build up any halfway decent team that plays them? I haven't watched a single play of Miami's, but are they any good?

Miami is good. Great running game, QB with a high ceiling and getting better every game, defense was a big problem early but they have gotten better as the season has gone on... The U is definitely trending in the right direction. FSU on the other hand, to me, has't improved one bit over the course of the year. The defense hasn't gotten any better, Jameis hasn't gotten any better, we still can't run the football with any kind of consistency... I can honestly say I can actually see us losing this game by double digits on Saturday.

 

[No1Ranked]

No way I bet FSU as inconsistent as they've been, unless it's to take them 2H when Jameis is actually trying (g). How much of this is just people wanting FSU to lose and wanting to build up any halfway decent team that plays them? I haven't watched a single play of Miami's, but are they any good?

As a Canes fan that has lost all confidence in this program, please take what I am saying with a grain of salt. Miami has tons of talent, not quite to FSU's level yet, but probably closer than any other team FSU has played to date (including ND, Clemson and Louisville). Miami is a different team than when they played the ville in week one. The offensive game plan was ultra conservative with a true freshman quarterback making his first ever start, on the road in primetime. The defense was tired out and failed in the second half. In Miami's other two losses, their Achilles heel came into play. Very cautious defensive scheming. Against two running teams, Nebraska and GT, Miami was sticking to a base defense with linebackers way off the way and a safety 20 yards off the ball. Neb and GT controlled the line of scrimmage and the clock and tired out Miami. Miami biggest weakness on defense if the DL. If FSU can control the line and run the ball they will win by a couple scores.

In Miami's other games they looked very different on defense. Against UNC, Duke, Cincinnati and VT, they were attacking on defense, and they dominated all of those games. The press Miami is getting now is because the have dominated their last three games with great defensive play and an awesome running game.

On offense, Miami has opened up the playbook a bit because Kaaya is getting better and looks to be a future superstar. He was throwing a couple of picks a game early on, but that has stopped as well. They still rely on the running game, which has worked all year, but they could struggle if FSU shuts it down. My biggest complaint on the offense has been the lack of throws to the WRs. They have a great stable of WR that just are not getting the ball. This needs to change to beat FSU.

All in all, like I said, I fully expect Miami to find a way to lose this game even if FSU plays poorly like they have several times this year. Do I think Miami can win, yes, but I don't think they will. I need Miami to win a game like this under Golden before I can start believing in them again.

Either way I will be in the stadium cheering them on. My money will be on FSU though; not at ton, but enough to lighten the sting if Miami loses. And if Miami wins, the books can have my money as I will be ecstatic.

 

[Schrute]

I did a ML parlay with FSU and Bama

 

[PokeyFSU]

As a Canes fan that has lost all confidence in this program, please take what I am saying with a grain of salt. Miami has tons of talent, not quite to FSU's level yet, but probably closer than any other team FSU has played to date (including ND, Clemson and Louisville). Miami is a different team than when they played the ville in week one. The offensive game plan was ultra conservative with a true freshman quarterback making his first ever start, on the road in primetime. The defense was tired out and failed in the second half. In Miami's other two losses, their Achilles heel came into play. Very cautious defensive scheming. Against two running teams, Nebraska and GT, Miami was sticking to a base defense with linebackers way off the way and a safety 20 yards off the ball. Neb and GT controlled the line of scrimmage and the clock and tired out Miami. Miami biggest weakness on defense if the DL. If FSU can control the line and run the ball they will win by a couple scores.

In Miami's other games they looked very different on defense. Against UNC, Duke, Cincinnati and VT, they were attacking on defense, and they dominated all of those games. The press Miami is getting now is because the have dominated their last three games with great defensive play and an awesome running game.

On offense, Miami has opened up the playbook a bit because Kaaya is getting better and looks to be a future superstar. He was throwing a couple of picks a game early on, but that has stopped as well. They still rely on the running game, which has worked all year, but they could struggle if FSU shuts it down. My biggest complaint on the offense has been the lack of throws to the WRs. They have a great stable of WR that just are not getting the ball. This needs to change to beat FSU.

This is pretty much my general feel for Miami in more detail. Miami will have success running the ball on Saturday, and that should open up the PA to Dorsett deep and Walford pretty much anywhere on the field. Walford will have a big impact on this game, imo. Huge TE with great hands. This game scares the shit out of me. Just can't see us winning unless the Miami D just doesn't show up at all.

 

[J Galt]

FSU loses, playoff situation gets really interesting, and Silky either gets real quiet on Twitter OR he spends a good 20 tweets yelling at the haters. There will be no in-between on that 3rd point, apesandbears is boom or bust

 

[twinkie13]

how much Jameis have on this game?

 

[TheGarfather]

Jameis got it at 2, he is sharp.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Not enough time to post in depth thoughts here right now, but shot some off on Twitter if u wanna read. Win or lose I'll be very rational about the game. Can Miami win? Sure, do I think they will. No

 

[Silkydiamonds]

In a game lined as a FG game, who do you trust to have a late game drive? A frosh QB or the reigning Heisman trophy winner?

The best kicker in CFB or a Frosh kicker.

in what is nominally a home game for Miami, I'd expect 50/50 split in the crowd if not a larger FSU contingent.

 

[~Utah]

Sippin my tea

 

[Schrute]

In a game lined as a FG game, who do you trust to have a late game drive? A frosh QB or the reigning Heisman trophy winner?

The best kicker in CFB or a Frosh kicker.

in what is nominally a home game for Miami, I'd expect 50/50 split in the crowd if not a larger FSU contingent.

Solid analysis honestly. If it's a close game in the 4th, it's not a tossup...it's a big edge to the Noles

 

[No1Ranked]

In a game lined as a FG game, who do you trust to have a late game drive? A frosh QB or the reigning Heisman trophy winner?

The best kicker in CFB or a Frosh kicker.

in what is nominally a home game for Miami, I'd expect 50/50 split in the crowd if not a larger FSU contingent.

As a fellow Redskins fan, but on the other side of this game, I wanted to chime in on the attendance. I know every other year there is talk of FSU having 40% or 50% of the crowd, or larger. I can tell you for certainty that that will not happen. And it never has. I have been to them all for years. I expect 30 to maybe 35% noles, which is still pretty awesome for a road team.

This is the nature of South Florida fans, which I don't consider myself one of even though I live down here now. It takes a big deal for them to show up, which is sad. But this is a big deal. Now I don't think it will be standing room only, but I would expect only about a third of the crowd to be Seminoles. Now on TV it may seem like more, especially mid chop, a Miami fans join in with a different hand signature and saying.

Now I still expect FSU to win, but I hope I am wrong.

 

[No1Ranked]

Solid analysis honestly. If it's a close game in the 4th, it's not a tossup...it's a big edge to the Noles

Agreed.

 

[Noles4life]

Will be at the game saturday and have gone to plenty of this rivalry over last 10yrs..... Sunlife is no home field adv for UM its not a college atmosphere FSU will not be intimidated at all.... Not that they have been intimidated ever but its not like there walkin into some hostile environment at night i do expect closer to a 50/50 crowd not even sure the game will be sold out still boat load of tkts available.. Think the game is close for a qtr or half think winston plays a clean game and u see some mistakes from kaaya ... UM will be a good team and a force to reckon with but not this still to young and D is very soft.. Kaaya throws a few pks maybe its closer then score indicated but im seein a 37-24 type of game

 

[cxbbum]

Will be at the game saturday and have gone to plenty of this rivalry over last 10yrs..... Sunlife is no home field adv for UM its not a college atmosphere FSU will not be intimidated at all.... Not that they have been intimidated ever but its not like there walkin into some hostile environment at night i do expect closer to a 50/50 crowd not even sure the game will be sold out still boat load of tkts available.. Think the game is close for a qtr or half think winston plays a clean game and u see some mistakes from kaaya ... UM will be a good team and a force to reckon with but not this still to young and D is very soft.. Kaaya throws a few pks maybe its closer then score indicated but im seein a 37-24 type of game

agree with ya....in my opinion, this line is absolutely f'kin' absurd and will end up being my biggest bet of the season for sure....Noles by DD easy....\m/

 

[Cappingchubster11]

As a fellow Redskins fan, but on the other side of this game, I wanted to chime in on the attendance. I know every other year there is talk of FSU having 40% or 50% of the crowd, or larger. I can tell you for certainty that that will not happen. And it never has. I have been to them all for years. I expect 30 to maybe 35% noles, which is still pretty awesome for a road team.

This is the nature of South Florida fans, which I don't consider myself one of even though I live down here now. It takes a big deal for them to show up, which is sad. But this is a big deal. Now I don't think it will be standing room only, but I would expect only about a third of the crowd to be Seminoles. Now on TV it may seem like more, especially mid chop, a Miami fans join in with a different hand signature and saying.

Now I still expect FSU to win, but I hope I am wrong.

Regarding your attendance comment, I can agree to some extent. People have in the past over exaggerated the split between the UM/FSU fans at Sunlife. I have been the last 5 years, but there’s one thing you are failing to consider... That was during the lost decade. FSU is now back on top, and Doak has been pretty full even against teams like UVA WF etc.. During the lost decade you would see tons of empty seats toward the top of the stadium. I think it'll easily be a 50/50 split now that the Noles are back on top.

That said, not sure if that really has an effect on this game. I’ve been worried about this game since Miami blew out VT. Miami is on the rise, and the Noles continue to let teams stick around. Miami is the type of team that will make you pay with the amount of talent on the roster. I do agree with your point about Robert vs Frosh and JW5 vs Frosh. Great write up.

 

[GWarner27]

As a Canes fan that has lost all confidence in this program, please take what I am saying with a grain of salt. Miami has tons of talent, not quite to FSU's level yet, but probably closer than any other team FSU has played to date (including ND, Clemson and Louisville). Miami is a different team than when they played the ville in week one. The offensive game plan was ultra conservative with a true freshman quarterback making his first ever start, on the road in primetime. The defense was tired out and failed in the second half. In Miami's other two losses, their Achilles heel came into play. Very cautious defensive scheming. Against two running teams, Nebraska and GT, Miami was sticking to a base defense with linebackers way off the way and a safety 20 yards off the ball. Neb and GT controlled the line of scrimmage and the clock and tired out Miami. Miami biggest weakness on defense if the DL. If FSU can control the line and run the ball they will win by a couple scores.

In Miami's other games they looked very different on defense. Against UNC, Duke, Cincinnati and VT, they were attacking on defense, and they dominated all of those games. The press Miami is getting now is because the have dominated their last three games with great defensive play and an awesome running game.

On offense, Miami has opened up the playbook a bit because Kaaya is getting better and looks to be a future superstar. He was throwing a couple of picks a game early on, but that has stopped as well. They still rely on the running game, which has worked all year, but they could struggle if FSU shuts it down. My biggest complaint on the offense has been the lack of throws to the WRs. They have a great stable of WR that just are not getting the ball. This needs to change to beat FSU.

All in all, like I said, I fully expect Miami to find a way to lose this game even if FSU plays poorly like they have several times this year. Do I think Miami can win, yes, but I don't think they will. I need Miami to win a game like this under Golden before I can start believing in them again.

Either way I will be in the stadium cheering them on. My money will be on FSU though; not at ton, but enough to lighten the sting if Miami loses. And if Miami wins, the books can have my money as I will be ecstatic.

great post, wish you luck though I wouldn't bet against my squad to lessen the sting because i like punishing myself