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www.bettheboardpodcast.com
Maybe the best podcast from them I have ever listened to. I do not think it is overstating it to suggest that it would be helpful to anyone looking to bet these games. Highly recommend it.
I unfortunately was listening to it from the truck as I was preparing the property for our major freeze expected next week. So, I did not take notes and below is from my memory. I am sure will not do the analysis justice and missed some impt points in this brief synopsis. Be that as it may, here are very high points I recall:
Best Bet is UNDER 21.5 1H in Eagles vs TB
Browns @ Texans:
CJ does great agst zone (as he saw last week) but near the bottom agst man to man and when pressured. He can expect both this week, Texans have limited weapons due to injury and not the best run game. They will rely on explosives in both pass & run (with Devin Singletary) and may have some success in both. Tough match-up for Txns O vs Browns D.
Flacco and A Cooper had record day agst Texans about 3 games ago. But, Texans should have some key defenders available that were not at the time. Browns will have tougher time running though agst Texans D. Much like Texans they expect Browns to try and hit explosives and they expect some success. Concerns about Will Anderson and the Texans D line getting pressure.
They note this is indoors on a fast track. At -3 the line seems to present value on the texans, that appears gone. They did not give a pick but I sensed a strong lean to Browns under a -3 and maybe a Browns TT? But, they have respect for Rhyns and Texans.
If I were to bet at current number based on their analysis, I'd take Browns at -2.
Fins @ KC:
Main thing I remember hearing is this: "If we used season long metrics (w/o injuries) the line would be pick or Fins -1 on a neutral." But, of course this is not what we have.
They expect Mostert and Wadell to give it a go to play. They think Fins can/will run as their game plan and may do so with success. Tua has bad record in cold games, but they seem to discount that as a point in the game. The more important metric they saw was getting pressure, but natural pressure as opposed to the blitz, and Tua struggles. Cannot remember much else but they see running ahead for Fins and they sounded more positive there will be some success.
Best line of day when discussing KC O was "Kelce seems to be aging before our eyes like old milk." That being said from what I recall is that KC should have success running the ball as primary plan. They went over KC struggles on O, but not as negative as some I have heard. Mahomes has good playoff experience here as we know. They went over Fins injuries and obvious problems, but they noted that Fins did a very good job vs Bills and Bills had 2 touchdowns from a punt return and a tipped pass reception. They also commented re poor KC scoring in 2Hs.
They have seen lines as high as -5 and some speculation that could go to -6 and that would be gobbled up by pros on Fins. Sounded to me as if they are leaning to KC at -4 or maybe below -4.5??? Hard to tell, but this discussion is worth a listen and for me a relisten
Steelers @ Buffalo:
I will keep it simple. Weather could be an issue and they follow the weather (sounds like they have people at stadium) and its hard to predict due to "lake effect." Currently they think its going to more of a snow game than a wind game...winds in mid-teens gusting to 30 for now? They discussed how Bills had 4 drives of 73+ yds vs Fins and helped defeat themselves on those drives. Expected positive regression for Bills it seemed.
Bottom line they said soemthing like this: "The line at 10 seems right. Some books tried to add a hook and immediately bet back down. When it dropped below 10 it was back to 10....this is more of a Prop game by the pros."
Green Bay @ Boys
Line now -7 and they noted that originated "out west" (Vegas) and not "off shore" which I took as meaning sharps were leaning GB.
They thought game, as far as the line, could be decided based on how GB O does agst Boys' D. They seemed to like the chances for GB in this regard. They were relatively effusive regarding Love, GB O line and Aaron Jones. They think there could be offensive success for GB. He also noted that GB game pace is slow, and slower in 1H even, intentionally.
In regard to Boys on O vs GB D they cited Dak's poor record ATS in playoffs (as I recall) and some issues with Boys' run game, but concluded with a comment close to: "All that being said,the Boys will find success in scoring." They also found positives re Joe Barry's defensive game plan Bears and even said "Kudos to Barry" whom Payne normally does not like. Payne thought Boys/McCarthy asses could pucker late in 3rd qtr if they were being pressed in a tight game.
He proposed the question: "Would you feel more comfortable taking Biys 1H -4 or a full game -7?" Do not recall them answering the question.
I sensed a definite Packers lean at 7.5 and maybe 7.
Rams vs Lions:
"Everything that could go right for Rams this season has gone right." Then said: "Rams have beat one playoff team this season, the Browns. Their best data point was in a loss vs Ravens."
After that intro he added: "The vast majority of a lot of their offesive success is agst dregs like Arizona, Seattle and Washington and then struggling to beat the Giants...that's a concern b/c everybody is on the Rams this week." Then says: "At +3.5 I understand and I absolutely believe the Rams are going to have offensive sucess this week." He thinks Kyren Williams means a lot to the Rams offense, but run defense is the Lions strength. He notes that the Lions also get pressure and Stafford is QB #21 against pressure. Lions defense is back to healthy. But, they express concern re the Lions defense and Aaron Glenn at D.C. "The goal here is can the Lions get a defensive stop or two by getting pressure and put Stafford in down and distance b/c of the run defense?" The bye week was good for the Rams re rest and injury recovery. "The Rams are so hard for me, but clearly their offense, if they come out and score early. certainly provides and edge and forces the Lions to play more left-handed on offense."
In regard to Lions offense he knows there is a narrative that MCVay knows Goff. Essentially they poo poo the idea, b/c Goff been in the league a long time and every bit of film is there for all teams to know Goff. Sees know advantage to McVay in that regard and that is no reason to bet the Rams. Lions are 25th in pass rate over expectation. So, "this offense is relaint on the most expensive offensive line in NFL to bully and create space for Gibbs and the Lions do that very well, they are 4th in rush efficiency in NFL. Rams defense is #20 in stopping the run." Likes rookie Kobie Turner on Rams D line next to Aaron Donald. Goff is bad agst a 2 high shell pass defense. Goff is good on play action passing. "Rams are a top 5 defense on straight passing plays, but off of play action they are bottom 5." LaPorta injury is big they think re Lions success on offense and they do not think he's playing. They actually think LaPorta's loss is "sizable" agst Rams b/c Rams have been bad defending agst tight ends.
Eagles @ Bucs:
I will make this short. Comments they make:
"Philly is coming in bad and Giants game was when they were trying to get right and could not do so." This is essentially a "price and injury game and not one of match ups. If both teams played their A+ game the peak of Eagles is better than Bucs and its not even close. We dont't think Bucs are a good football team, they are a middling team, somewhere 15th or 16th in our power rankings. The problem is....Eagles were lucky week 9 vs Dallas, then lucky to beat KC (they were dominated in 1H) and then lucky to beat Buffalo in OT (again dominated/obliterated 1H). SF crushed them, then Dallas crushed them, and lost to a bad Seattle team. They are downtrending so hard that you wonder if the market has fully caught up? Lowest power rating we have had on the Eagles since the 1st year when Siriani gave up play calling to Steichen...All of these injuries are piling up on them. Hurts going to play with a splint on middle finger. Brown and D Smith will be out there but not near 100%. Mayfield is dealing with ankle and rib...very difficult when this game comes to price. You could make case to buy low on Eagles and make the case that one of these teams has been fighting and likes each other and has not quit and there's some weird stuff going on in Eagles locker room and it's very apparent that the brains have left town in both Steichenn and Gannon...Matt Patricia is fully incompetent....Tommy DeVito came in cold off the pine and going on drives last week. So, I wanted to be on the Bucs, but the price is a touch short.....if Eagles play their A+ then line a touch short (but they dont know how Eagles will play). I will just be candid....." Have to listen, sounded as if they wanted to give a pick and did not do so.
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