Best site for who public is betting?
- Thread starter MBarnett
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metsrp86
Giants 17-14 Patriots
Go play Intramurals
Well-Known Member
great site thanks
Thats taken straight from sports insights and I dunno if that site updates it at the same time Sportinsights does. So if you want it straight from the horses mouth just go to www.sportsinsights.com. If you register for a free account you can get that info for NFL and NCAA updated every 30 minutes.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
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Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Nothing is sexier than pie graphs
Well, shaved p*ssy is pretty good.
Well, shaved p*ssy is pretty good.
Question: I'm curious to know the consensus on this public % deal.
What does it really tell us? The fundamental basis for bookmaking (as I understand it, but I don't know a single person in the industry) is that the books need ~50% risk on each side given a fair line (except in those few special places when special teams are playing for something special). These, I think, are few and far between.
So anyway, we can log on and look at these percentages that are way out of whack and we all know that books don't close down. I understand the angle of "the % doesn't equal the $" and I assume their $$ risk is equalized (given that it is not a special game).
So, if you assume the $$ is equal, what does looking at the % bets tell me? MORE bets on one side MUST be being made for LESS money per bet. The only angle that I can see, and it is a shaky one at best, is to assume that big bettors (and I mean big enough to equalize a 9:1 ratio the other way) are winners and small bettors (homers, cool guys, etc.) are losers. This, of course, is the age-old fade the public strategy because the sharp, money-makers are equalizing the number of bets with big money on the less-than-50% side. If it were that easy, we'd know about it and Vegas would be a desert again.
That obviously ain't the case so I'm curious to get your take on what's wrong with the above statements and ultimately, how you use the betting %'s...if at all. I don't.
What does it really tell us? The fundamental basis for bookmaking (as I understand it, but I don't know a single person in the industry) is that the books need ~50% risk on each side given a fair line (except in those few special places when special teams are playing for something special). These, I think, are few and far between.
So anyway, we can log on and look at these percentages that are way out of whack and we all know that books don't close down. I understand the angle of "the % doesn't equal the $" and I assume their $$ risk is equalized (given that it is not a special game).
So, if you assume the $$ is equal, what does looking at the % bets tell me? MORE bets on one side MUST be being made for LESS money per bet. The only angle that I can see, and it is a shaky one at best, is to assume that big bettors (and I mean big enough to equalize a 9:1 ratio the other way) are winners and small bettors (homers, cool guys, etc.) are losers. This, of course, is the age-old fade the public strategy because the sharp, money-makers are equalizing the number of bets with big money on the less-than-50% side. If it were that easy, we'd know about it and Vegas would be a desert again.
That obviously ain't the case so I'm curious to get your take on what's wrong with the above statements and ultimately, how you use the betting %'s...if at all. I don't.
Larice, I never really buy the 50/50 action for books. There are going to be games with one sided action at times. I mean, with how lines move there couldn't be a true 50/50 draw anyway.
Now, if you use a site like sportsinsights..keep this in mind.
Lets use Florida-Georgia with Hypothetical numbers.
Line opens 10 and is now 8.5 in favor of Florida
You check sportsinsights.
It says there is a total of 1,171 bets
It shows the percentage of "bets" being placed as...
71% Florida
29 % Georgia
So, line went from 10 to 8.5...considering no significant injuries.
Now, I will make this example extreme to get point across. Remember the 1171 bets.
Lets say those 71% bets on Florida all were for 1000.00
Now, those 29% on UGA averaged10,000.00 per wager.
The game actually has more money on UGA..which moved line down but a higher percentage of this sample of 'bets' is on Florida.
aka..reverse line movement in one nutshell
Now, if you use a site like sportsinsights..keep this in mind.
Lets use Florida-Georgia with Hypothetical numbers.
Line opens 10 and is now 8.5 in favor of Florida
You check sportsinsights.
It says there is a total of 1,171 bets
It shows the percentage of "bets" being placed as...
71% Florida
29 % Georgia
So, line went from 10 to 8.5...considering no significant injuries.
Now, I will make this example extreme to get point across. Remember the 1171 bets.
Lets say those 71% bets on Florida all were for 1000.00
Now, those 29% on UGA averaged10,000.00 per wager.
The game actually has more money on UGA..which moved line down but a higher percentage of this sample of 'bets' is on Florida.
aka..reverse line movement in one nutshell
:36_11_6:Nothing is sexier than pie graphs
Well, shaved p*ssy is pretty good.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Have to make sure the number of bets coming in on a side are straight bets as well. if they factor in teasers the percent of bets placed on each team are going to be skewed since a vast majority of teasers are public teasing down favorites. teasers also tend to be made at small dollars for multiple events to occur for a major payday. so there will be less money placed on those particular style of bets than on straight bets, in general. they also do not tend to move the lines the way straight bets do. not sure how these sites get their data, but just thought you should make sure you are looking at straight bets.
M.R. Goode
Ohio St. deserves no BCS talk
I am currently going thru every game this year from Sports Insights to see how "smart" moves have been doing, looking for trends, etc. I can spend hours doing this kind of research but I will get it all written up when I get done. Hopefully I can do it before Sat, but currently in Austin waiting for my first grand-daughter to be born.
M.R. Goode
Ohio St. deserves no BCS talk
She is here!!!
M.R. Goode
Ohio St. deserves no BCS talk
Had been waiting since 7 last nite!
:cheers:
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
The following information has contributed so much to any success I have had in sports gambling:
Goto http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-news/breaking-wiseguy-wires.asp
The news wire on that site is fucking phenomenal. They have information from Sportsbookspy.com, which is normally a pay service. They give the % of public betting from 3 or 4 very well-known books.
I'll give credit to "Phillyroom" for giving me the site.
Goto http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-news/breaking-wiseguy-wires.asp
The news wire on that site is fucking phenomenal. They have information from Sportsbookspy.com, which is normally a pay service. They give the % of public betting from 3 or 4 very well-known books.
I'll give credit to "Phillyroom" for giving me the site.
