Houghton Chemical
Pretty much a regular
I'm looking to invest heavily (10 units) on one NFL team for the season win total. I'll be playing this at YouWager. It seems like an overall awful book, but they mailed me a great pamphlet about their bonuses, so I figured, I'll just play futures here.
Anyway, I'm looking through the Season Win Totals and wanted some opinions on just picking ONE team.
These are my leans: (all lines YouWager)
Chicago U7.5 -120
Bears finished 7-9 and I'm envisioning the same or 6-10 this year. Orton will start for Chicago this year and in my opinion, he's slightly better than Grossman. The anemic offense gets revamped. A new RB, some new WRs, taking to a new QB, it will take time to get that cohesiveness, so productivity could be low. Don't be surprised to find them at the bottom of the NFC North when this season is done.
Projection: 6-10
Wins- TB, @DET, @ATL, DET, @STL, NO
Losses- @IND, @CAR, PHIL, MIN, TENN, @GB, @MIN, JAX, GB, @HOU
Key Games: TENN, MIN, GB, @HOU
Cleveland U8 EV
A lot of discussion has been made about this team here at CTG and I'm part of the group that's counting on a regression this year. When you defeat only one playoff team, and by a slim margin at that, and STILL churn out an 10-6 season, probability would say lighting does not strike twice, and some of the breaks they got, won't go they're way. Add in a tougher schedule this year, and that assessment probably isn't too far off. They have a lot of talent on this team, and they have another year of experience under their belts, but that can only account for so much. I think we'll learn a lot about where this team is headed in Week 1. If they beat Dallas SU, this Under projection could be decided. I'm using last year as my main angle here, and Dallas is a team Cleveland would NOT have beaten last year, and if they do, there's a good chance they finish with over 8 wins.
Projection: 8-8
Wins: PIT, @BALT, @WASH, BALT, DEN, @BUF, CIN,
Losses: DAL, NYG, @JAX, HOU, IND, @TEN, @PHI, @PIT
Key Games: PIT, NYG, HOU, CIN, @PIT
Note: After going game by game, I'm not sure if Under is a wise bet. I have a feeling I push or lose here. If Cincinnati and Pittsburgh under perform, those teams might throw it in towards the end of the season and those teams are the last two Cleveland faces. Once again, a playoff spot could be on the line and I really wouldn't be surprised if they sneak in this year, if this is how it shakes down. Pass for now.
Houston O7.5 -120
Last year, Houston finished at a franchise best 8-8. If they do it again here, I win. Simple as that. Houston will be gunning for a wildcard spot and I think they can do that. BUT they NEED to pick up some early wins to boost confidence, but they'll be doing it against quality opponents. Like Cleveland, a lot will be learned in their first games. With Houston, it's their first five. If they get 3 out of 5, expect the over to cash. If they don't, be prepared to sweat it out for the duration. The offense is coming together. Towards the end of the season, they were putting up 30 a game or so. Slaton will be a big help in establishing the ground game, making the entire offense a threat. The key this season is conference play. They went 1-5 against the AFC South and 7-3 against everyone else. Performing well in conference will give them the confidence they need to get to the playoffs and cement the 8 wins we need.
Projection: 8-8
Wins: BALT, MIA, DET, CIN, @CLE, TEN, @OAK, CHI
Losses: @PIT, @JAX, IND, @MIN, @IND, JAX, @GB,
Key Games: Almost all. First five games then, CIN, @CLE, but especially, TEN. Just by the way things shake down for both of them, after that game, it's a must win for both.
Minnesota O8.5 -125
The Vikings are receiving a lot of preseason buzz and expectations are high. In my 23 years of life, other than the 1998 NFC Championship team, this team has been mediocre. But even in those years, a 9 win season wasn't out of the question, and that's all I'm asking for here. Offense is solid, but Jackson is a big question mark. I personally believe he'll be alright. Adrian Peterson is the star and for good reason, he carried the team last year. But the defense is the real glue for Minnesota. They allowed 19 ppg on average and shut down ANYONE who tried to run on them. Adding Jared Allen this year will make them even tougher. If Jackson can do enough to get by, this should be a safe 9-10 win team.
Projection:11-5
Wins: @GB, CAR, @NO, DET, CHI, HOU, @TB, CHI, @DET, @AZ, ATL
Losses: IND, @TEN, GB, @JAX, NYG(last game of year, resting for playoffs)
Key Games: @GB, Chicago series. I think they can steal the opener against Green Bay. The Favre era ends and Rodgers and the crowd can still feel his shadow.
Philadelphia O9 -110
This could be a breakout year for Philadelphia. It'll be hard because of the competition within the division, but made easier because of their schedule. The offense is really the main concern here. They straight up struggled last year and the injuries sealed the deal. The same old faces show up again this year. It could be the last hurrah for McNabb and Westbrook, but now, McNabb has a weapon he's never had before: DeSean Jackson. Maybe I'm still being swayed by his impressive performance against New England, but I remember watching his Cal games, and I hate to be cliche', but he has game-changing speed. That's something McNabb's never had and that will scare the secondaries of the NFC East. Philadelphia defense should still be solid as well. They lacked in pass coverage, allowing 11 ypp, but Asante Samuel should bring that number down. But what I love most about this play is the out of division schedule. It's a walk in the park. In division play, I have Philadelphia losing one series and splitting the rest of the division games, something they basically did last year. They do that, and still, we get a solid 11 win season.
Projection: 11-5
Wins: STL, PIT, @CHI, WASH, @SF, ATL, NYG, @CIN, @BALT, AZ, CLEV,
Losses: @DAL, @SEA, @NYG, @WASH, DAL
Key Games: PIT, @SF, AZ, All Division games
Thanks for reading. These are all leans, I just want some help in narrowing down the list. Good luck to everyone this year.
Anyway, I'm looking through the Season Win Totals and wanted some opinions on just picking ONE team.
These are my leans: (all lines YouWager)
Chicago U7.5 -120
Bears finished 7-9 and I'm envisioning the same or 6-10 this year. Orton will start for Chicago this year and in my opinion, he's slightly better than Grossman. The anemic offense gets revamped. A new RB, some new WRs, taking to a new QB, it will take time to get that cohesiveness, so productivity could be low. Don't be surprised to find them at the bottom of the NFC North when this season is done.
Projection: 6-10
Wins- TB, @DET, @ATL, DET, @STL, NO
Losses- @IND, @CAR, PHIL, MIN, TENN, @GB, @MIN, JAX, GB, @HOU
Key Games: TENN, MIN, GB, @HOU
Cleveland U8 EV
A lot of discussion has been made about this team here at CTG and I'm part of the group that's counting on a regression this year. When you defeat only one playoff team, and by a slim margin at that, and STILL churn out an 10-6 season, probability would say lighting does not strike twice, and some of the breaks they got, won't go they're way. Add in a tougher schedule this year, and that assessment probably isn't too far off. They have a lot of talent on this team, and they have another year of experience under their belts, but that can only account for so much. I think we'll learn a lot about where this team is headed in Week 1. If they beat Dallas SU, this Under projection could be decided. I'm using last year as my main angle here, and Dallas is a team Cleveland would NOT have beaten last year, and if they do, there's a good chance they finish with over 8 wins.
Projection: 8-8
Wins: PIT, @BALT, @WASH, BALT, DEN, @BUF, CIN,
Losses: DAL, NYG, @JAX, HOU, IND, @TEN, @PHI, @PIT
Key Games: PIT, NYG, HOU, CIN, @PIT
Note: After going game by game, I'm not sure if Under is a wise bet. I have a feeling I push or lose here. If Cincinnati and Pittsburgh under perform, those teams might throw it in towards the end of the season and those teams are the last two Cleveland faces. Once again, a playoff spot could be on the line and I really wouldn't be surprised if they sneak in this year, if this is how it shakes down. Pass for now.
Houston O7.5 -120
Last year, Houston finished at a franchise best 8-8. If they do it again here, I win. Simple as that. Houston will be gunning for a wildcard spot and I think they can do that. BUT they NEED to pick up some early wins to boost confidence, but they'll be doing it against quality opponents. Like Cleveland, a lot will be learned in their first games. With Houston, it's their first five. If they get 3 out of 5, expect the over to cash. If they don't, be prepared to sweat it out for the duration. The offense is coming together. Towards the end of the season, they were putting up 30 a game or so. Slaton will be a big help in establishing the ground game, making the entire offense a threat. The key this season is conference play. They went 1-5 against the AFC South and 7-3 against everyone else. Performing well in conference will give them the confidence they need to get to the playoffs and cement the 8 wins we need.
Projection: 8-8
Wins: BALT, MIA, DET, CIN, @CLE, TEN, @OAK, CHI
Losses: @PIT, @JAX, IND, @MIN, @IND, JAX, @GB,
Key Games: Almost all. First five games then, CIN, @CLE, but especially, TEN. Just by the way things shake down for both of them, after that game, it's a must win for both.
Minnesota O8.5 -125
The Vikings are receiving a lot of preseason buzz and expectations are high. In my 23 years of life, other than the 1998 NFC Championship team, this team has been mediocre. But even in those years, a 9 win season wasn't out of the question, and that's all I'm asking for here. Offense is solid, but Jackson is a big question mark. I personally believe he'll be alright. Adrian Peterson is the star and for good reason, he carried the team last year. But the defense is the real glue for Minnesota. They allowed 19 ppg on average and shut down ANYONE who tried to run on them. Adding Jared Allen this year will make them even tougher. If Jackson can do enough to get by, this should be a safe 9-10 win team.
Projection:11-5
Wins: @GB, CAR, @NO, DET, CHI, HOU, @TB, CHI, @DET, @AZ, ATL
Losses: IND, @TEN, GB, @JAX, NYG(last game of year, resting for playoffs)
Key Games: @GB, Chicago series. I think they can steal the opener against Green Bay. The Favre era ends and Rodgers and the crowd can still feel his shadow.
Philadelphia O9 -110
This could be a breakout year for Philadelphia. It'll be hard because of the competition within the division, but made easier because of their schedule. The offense is really the main concern here. They straight up struggled last year and the injuries sealed the deal. The same old faces show up again this year. It could be the last hurrah for McNabb and Westbrook, but now, McNabb has a weapon he's never had before: DeSean Jackson. Maybe I'm still being swayed by his impressive performance against New England, but I remember watching his Cal games, and I hate to be cliche', but he has game-changing speed. That's something McNabb's never had and that will scare the secondaries of the NFC East. Philadelphia defense should still be solid as well. They lacked in pass coverage, allowing 11 ypp, but Asante Samuel should bring that number down. But what I love most about this play is the out of division schedule. It's a walk in the park. In division play, I have Philadelphia losing one series and splitting the rest of the division games, something they basically did last year. They do that, and still, we get a solid 11 win season.
Projection: 11-5
Wins: STL, PIT, @CHI, WASH, @SF, ATL, NYG, @CIN, @BALT, AZ, CLEV,
Losses: @DAL, @SEA, @NYG, @WASH, DAL
Key Games: PIT, @SF, AZ, All Division games
Thanks for reading. These are all leans, I just want some help in narrowing down the list. Good luck to everyone this year.
