Best guess in Orlando

[tuck321]

12-01-08 They played in Boston. They had been playing like an above average team before this day but really nothing to get excited about.
They were playing short handed 7 players with no Nelson
18-28 28-20 19-29 23-30. Pay attention to the fourth quarter. Till the end of the game the best players from Boston were playing on the court against Orlando and talking loudly.
Since that game they have changed considerably, winning 20 games and losing 3. 11 of those wins were playoff level teams. Not going to bore you with home and away records. Lets look at something else.
Playing winning teams these two are
Boston is 15-4 su and 10-9 ats
Orlando is 13-4 and 13-4 This is worth thinking about. Boston is a more sophisticated team with their eye on the end of the game. Orlando pretty much comes on like a bulldozer.
Boston wants this game a Lot. Orlando wants it MORE. The fourth quarter was ultimate motivation. Orlando and Boston both have problems. Boston simply not good b-b with a 3-7 ats and this is worst 4 in 6. Orlando has a bad track record with extra rest. Its come up 1 that I see time last year as I do not count the first game of the season.. This was the game.
Home against Indian
28-32 26-30 Orlando leads by 8 then 30-25 31-22 they no longer led and the game ended.
This is Boston. The team that went 1, 2 ,3 and 4 through the Kings, OKC, Utah and the Lakers last year. They just crushed the Lakers in the fourth game. Lakers shot about 35%. The game against Utah was more interesting. 28-29 21-27 Boston is down 7 at half time. Not at the end of the game.
Have we gotten anywhere yet? Maybe not. Lets look further. Boston at Dallas
24-29 22-19 Dallas leads by 2 but not at the end of the game. Boston at the Spurs 11-28 32-25 the Spurs lead by 10 but lose the game. Could Boston win today? Yes. They could. Will they? I doubt it. Simple facts. The last 3 times Boston played a top team they lost. Last 23 games Orlando has been easily the best team in the NBA. Not conclusive but both are facts. A play on Orlando is first quarter is a forced move. They have a rest advantage and have covered at home in the first quarter in 9 of their last 10 home games and are playing with great motivation. This was another recent game by Boston also played in a worst 4 of 6 situation with the other team also playing with revenge. Toronto at Boston
23-19 31-26 Toronto leads by 9 at half time. Would add Boston has better total rest today than in that game but it is still a guide. Good teams are not afraid to lose the first half. Especially when they have a rest disadvantage. I am not honestly convinced Boston can come back today. Have made far too many winning bets on Orlando to get off the best paying train I know. But I will be playing first quarter and first half with more on the first half. Nothing is for sure here but I think this is the best shot. Remember a number I listed above Boston is 10-9 ats against winning teams. That is because they are smart and patient, traits the Spurs have lost with new youth.
By the way if anyone is wondering, I made a bet last night on Boston minus 3 first half against the Heat. I thought it was good action and it left me free to bet against them today without breaking personal rules.
At half time I will consider other bets GL
Oops. At the end of the first quarter Orlando is 1-8 on threes and 2-4 on free throws. They are losing by 5. For the seson they are slightly better than boston on threes and egual on 3 defense.

 

[tuck321]

Adding another wild guess in college basketball. Chalk monster tuck lays 6.5 with stanford vs Oregon the Mighty first half tonight.

 

[tuck321]

Another guess Wisconsin-Greenbay plus 5 first half. Actually betting real live money on these picks. :hang:

 

[tuck321]

Got lucky with Green bay who won 25-22. Honestly its not entirely luck so taking these college plays not such a bad idea.
The first play where i am actually laying 6.5 is very rare which should indicate the strength I feel in the bet.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BOL w/the non juniors:cheers:

 

[Trueblue]

2h orlando play coming up?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

would not touch orlando, boston is better, they stop the 3 and they own howard--

trueblue save your money, i would feel confident with boston

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Trueblue check this ticket out i got on washington tonight, i can easily make some money by heding on lakers LIVe betting on moneyline once washington has any lead in this game which is possible--

136189517-3
5 10:39am 22-Jan-09 7:35pm 22-Jan-09 Basketball
Money Line Washington Wizards vs Los Angeles Lakers for Game +1700 100.00 1,700.00

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

2h orlando play coming up?

The thing abotu orlando is I think Boston is just a much better team,

orlando beat teams that dont their style and players, boston has the right approach on Defensea and knows how to stop howard, he always shoots faster vs east teams as they rush him--

Turkoglu probably the best shooter in the NBA by far is pretty good, but the rest of the players will be denied by celtics D--

garnett can get any shot he wants and Pierce and company also--

boston brought their championship defense today, orlando is not good defensively and their normal wide open 3's are not their vs boston as most shots are contested and the score is low scoring, not their pace of play

 

[Trueblue]

lol, jeez... ur gonna have to lay a shit load of juice on the lakeshow though.... they should come out stronger after yesterday's abysmal 1st..gl bro

 

[Trueblue]

yeah, i hear yeah, im just talking about magic in a value perspective here..

 

[tuck321]

May need the college. Numbers are terrible for Orlando. Nelson their worst enemy. 1 basket by their bench. 5 asts and 7 turnovers. Simply can not bet any side but Boston and a little stubborn as if i was wrong it might shorten my life span. Going to look at other things bol to all including Orlando.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

thanks TUCK I have boston moneyline and hedged a bit with live betting but not really worried I think Boston can win this game and cover the +5 hoopefully--

forgotten in this orlando love is that they are not a good defensive team at all, they can be singled up and beaten, like boston is doing,giong 1 on 1 vs defenders with garnett postiung up on turky and other players. nelson also can be abused on defense-

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

lol, jeez... ur gonna have to lay a shit load of juice on the lakeshow though.... they should come out stronger after yesterday's abysmal 1st..gl bro

All I need is even the lakers to be like -500 on the moneyline at one point, then i can bet to win $300 risking $1500, and still make $200 either way--


A -500 live betting line is possible I think--

or find a low laker spread like a -3 or -4 live spread, cause I am coverd with the washington outright win--

this is a game where i think washington will show up for a while, you never know in these games this year lakers have been showing up a little flat for these types of games

 

[tuck321]

Sammy's remarks on Orlando defense are ---not rooted in facts. Going into this game Orlando allowed opposition field goals at 42.60% to Boston;s 42.31. They were a little worse on free throws and rebounding equal on 3 point defense and a little better shooting 3's at 40% to Boston's 38%. They are a very good team having a very bad game which seems to happen a lot to them on these rare 3 or more day rest periods. I am sure when Boston was as flat as a pancake Sammy was talking about the great team Orlando and how terrible Boston was this year. They are teams. They go up and they go down and part of capping is guessing when.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Tuck I am talking about teams that play one on one and have really good players that can drive the ball, boston has guys like Pierce and Garnett who Orlando does not match up with all-

Orlando as far as I am concerned does not have players that will beat elite teams, same will happen vs cleveland, they will not stop James and company--

Orldno also cannot beat Detroit- they dont matchup well with them at all--

Orlando is still a team that gets baeten easily in nBA playoffs-- Howard never shows up in a critical game at HOME- detroit shut him down, boston held him to 14 in the first game, he has hardly any points tongith and 5 fouls--

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Garnett can just shoot right over Turkoglus head--

they play matchups with orlando and also Orlando 3 point shooters are getting worked hard on defense-- vs spurs and denver they dont single the weak defenders out and attack them--

orlando plays like the raptors vs the celtics- the have no insdie play, i dont think they had a dunk today?

Tuck that is no coincidence and pierce gets to the line alll day long vs orlando , thait is no fluke either.

 

[tuck321]

Small play on Lakers under 208.5
Lakers at home on Thursday 5-1 under last 6. Washington on the road on Thursday under last 3
Washington on the road last 18 is 13-5 under and after every over has come another under. They went over yesterday.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

like it als

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Howard never shows up in a critical game at HOME

Something I did hear from the broadcast of this game was that Patrick Ewing has said the Olympics had led to a change in Howard's attitude to preparation and practise, and how that's been the catalyst for his improvement this season. Orlando is still 16-4 SU at home this season, after going 25-16 SU there the previous 2 seasons. They're easily on pace to produce their best home court effort in some seasons.

 

[tuck321]

Easy winning day. I tried to indicate to you that I thought the Stanford bet was really very strong. I laid 6.5. They won the first half by 22. Sometimes i wonder what my prime focus should be. Still do not know the name of a single college player.

 

[lungster]

thanks tuck. tailed you on stanford. got 7, thats why i didnt go large, but damn, easiest win of the night.

cheers

 

[betman4ever]

Easy winning day. I tried to indicate to you that I thought the Stanford bet was really very strong. I laid 6.5. They won the first half by 22. Sometimes i wonder what my prime focus should be. Still do not know the name of a single college player.

Congrats on the college picks! Was wondering how u cap games without knowing any player ? If that works, have u ever tried to apply the same on European bb ? I haven't seen anyone(or maybe very very rarely) there picking halves and quarters. I've always said I will be looking into it at some point but with soccer, nba and European bb i am way over my head, always have to neglect some.

 

[tuck321]

I look at box scores. That's it. Bet under in the Laker game fourth quarter 51 minus 10 cents. Thought I would bet more and came back. Was minus 30 cents.
Probably not be as good in games from another country as i would miss indications of what was proper from team history and lose nuances.

 

[tuck321]

Just a wrap up with implications in the Laker game. OK on the second half action what was going on. A more normal call by me would be second half or third quarter under. They both worked easier then my play which just barely worked. So. Why did I do it. Why did the line go to minus 30 cents. Why did the third quarter line over go to minus 25 cents.
When the Lakers have 2 high scoring quarters at home they are Not done. It is very common for them to score around 30 in the third. Washington has been helpless in the fourth quarter which Means they tend to score more in the third quarter. So everyone who knew what was going on assumed Washington would blow in the third while the Lakers ran right with them and that the 4th would be a whisper. Washington flipped. Low scoring third and they actually scored 29 points in the fourth quarter. This reduces their predictablity but also indicates they may start winning more as the 4th quarter has been pure death for them. If that curse has been lifted they may start winning games again.