Top NFL Conference Championship Games Parlay
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Does Location Matter
One feature of this NFL playoffs has been the repetitiveness with which road teams have pulled off an upset.
San Francisco, for example, upset both Dallas and Green Bay on the road.
More recently, the Rams knocked off defending champion Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay.
Cincinnati just took down top-seeded Tennessee in Nashville.
In these games, the home team has certainly benefitted from its location, but in minor respects.
Matt Stafford, for example, had to take a timeout because the Tampa Bay crowd was so noisy.
But the Tampa Bay crowd could not provide any help when the players were playing.
For this reason, I generally don't like when people use home/away stats in football.
Rematch in Kansas City
Joe Burrow does not care where he is playing. He could not have displayed more composure and more resiliency in his team's 19-16 win in Tennessee last week.
Despite taking nine sacks against a high-ranked pass rush, he threw for 348 passing yards.
His highly efficient performance ultimately helped Cincinnati enter into position for the game-winning field goal.
This proven composure on the road must allay concern that Burrow can't repeat his Week 17 performance against Kansas City.
In that home game, Burrow amassed 446 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Not only will Burrow, therefore, avoid being in any kind of disadvantage by playing this rematch in Kansas City, the Chief defense may have a disadvantage in this rematch.
When these two teams met in Week 17, Chief safety Tyrann Mathieu played.
He is the Chiefs' defensive leader and his support against the pass and against the run has helped hm earn three All-Pro selections.
But Mathieu is in the concussion protocol right now. His physical condition will require him to overcome several medical obstacles just in order to play.
Officially, he's listed as 'questionable' for this game.
Ja'Marr Chase
It's tempting to characterize Bengal wideout Ja'Marr Chase as inconsistent.
On the one hand, he's enjoyed some monstrous performances in individual games.
On the other hand, he'd laid multiple duds. For example, he failed to catch a single pass for 20 or more yards in four straight games from November 7 to December 5.
But he's been consistent with respect to the opponent he's faced. He struggled in both games against Cleveland, was similarly good on a per-reception basis against Pittsburgh, and dominated Baltimore's secondary both times.
Against the Chiefs, he amassed 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 11 receptions.
Especially given Mathieu's situation, one must envision somewhat of a repeat performance.
Kansas City's defense is repeatedly vulnerable to big-play wide receivers from Mike Williams -- in the game where he was healthy -- to Gabriel Davis most recently.
Chase has the explosiveness and clean technique to dominate this Chief secondary.
His play-making makes him a favorite target of his former college teammate.
Burrow will take a few sacks in the process. But Kansas City's pass rush isn't anything like Tennessee's -- the Titans rank 25 spots higher in sack rate than the Chiefs.
Chiefs Offense
Kansas City will put up its share of points, too.
Patrick Mahomes is regularly solid in home playoff games. So far this postseason, he's amassed 782 passing yards and eight touchdowns to one interception in them.
The Chiefs managed 31 points in Week 17 in Cincinnati despite only scoring three second-half points and despite star speedster Tyreek Hill mustering 40 yards on 10 targets.
One of the NFL's leading receivers, Hill is notoriously difficult to contain -- the Chargers, for example, couldn't limit him twice in a row.
Given the way that Mahomes and company are looking now, they should exceed 31 points against Cincinnati's 26th-ranked pass defense.
The Verdict
Cincinnati was dogged by 3.5 points in Week 17 at home, so the line is no surprise given that the game is in Kansas City's well-reputed Arrowhead Stadium.
These extra points, I think, are a gift to Bengal bettors. This will be a close game and a shootout.
Best Bet: Parlay Bengals +7 at -108 & Over 54.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Does Location Matter
One feature of this NFL playoffs has been the repetitiveness with which road teams have pulled off an upset.
San Francisco, for example, upset both Dallas and Green Bay on the road.
More recently, the Rams knocked off defending champion Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay.
Cincinnati just took down top-seeded Tennessee in Nashville.
In these games, the home team has certainly benefitted from its location, but in minor respects.
Matt Stafford, for example, had to take a timeout because the Tampa Bay crowd was so noisy.
But the Tampa Bay crowd could not provide any help when the players were playing.
For this reason, I generally don't like when people use home/away stats in football.
Rematch in Kansas City
Joe Burrow does not care where he is playing. He could not have displayed more composure and more resiliency in his team's 19-16 win in Tennessee last week.
Despite taking nine sacks against a high-ranked pass rush, he threw for 348 passing yards.
His highly efficient performance ultimately helped Cincinnati enter into position for the game-winning field goal.
This proven composure on the road must allay concern that Burrow can't repeat his Week 17 performance against Kansas City.
In that home game, Burrow amassed 446 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Not only will Burrow, therefore, avoid being in any kind of disadvantage by playing this rematch in Kansas City, the Chief defense may have a disadvantage in this rematch.
When these two teams met in Week 17, Chief safety Tyrann Mathieu played.
He is the Chiefs' defensive leader and his support against the pass and against the run has helped hm earn three All-Pro selections.
But Mathieu is in the concussion protocol right now. His physical condition will require him to overcome several medical obstacles just in order to play.
Officially, he's listed as 'questionable' for this game.
Ja'Marr Chase
It's tempting to characterize Bengal wideout Ja'Marr Chase as inconsistent.
On the one hand, he's enjoyed some monstrous performances in individual games.
On the other hand, he'd laid multiple duds. For example, he failed to catch a single pass for 20 or more yards in four straight games from November 7 to December 5.
But he's been consistent with respect to the opponent he's faced. He struggled in both games against Cleveland, was similarly good on a per-reception basis against Pittsburgh, and dominated Baltimore's secondary both times.
Against the Chiefs, he amassed 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 11 receptions.
Especially given Mathieu's situation, one must envision somewhat of a repeat performance.
Kansas City's defense is repeatedly vulnerable to big-play wide receivers from Mike Williams -- in the game where he was healthy -- to Gabriel Davis most recently.
Chase has the explosiveness and clean technique to dominate this Chief secondary.
His play-making makes him a favorite target of his former college teammate.
Burrow will take a few sacks in the process. But Kansas City's pass rush isn't anything like Tennessee's -- the Titans rank 25 spots higher in sack rate than the Chiefs.
Chiefs Offense
Kansas City will put up its share of points, too.
Patrick Mahomes is regularly solid in home playoff games. So far this postseason, he's amassed 782 passing yards and eight touchdowns to one interception in them.
The Chiefs managed 31 points in Week 17 in Cincinnati despite only scoring three second-half points and despite star speedster Tyreek Hill mustering 40 yards on 10 targets.
One of the NFL's leading receivers, Hill is notoriously difficult to contain -- the Chargers, for example, couldn't limit him twice in a row.
Given the way that Mahomes and company are looking now, they should exceed 31 points against Cincinnati's 26th-ranked pass defense.
The Verdict
Cincinnati was dogged by 3.5 points in Week 17 at home, so the line is no surprise given that the game is in Kansas City's well-reputed Arrowhead Stadium.
These extra points, I think, are a gift to Bengal bettors. This will be a close game and a shootout.
Best Bet: Parlay Bengals +7 at -108 & Over 54.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
