Broad realities:
Browns 0-4 on the road, but I don't think the reality is quite as bad as it seems. The first loss was 21-18 at New Orleans, which was blown by atrocious field goal kicking, and the loss, at this point in the season, looks like a really good one. At the Raiders on the West Coast. Nail-biter at Tampa Bay. Then at hot Pittsburgh. In Cincinnati, the crowd may be more 50-50 and obviously the travel aspect isn't too bad.
Bengals without A.J. Green. I also think this is something that gets overstated. Last two weeks rather bad without him, 14 points vs New Orleans, 21 at Baltimore. Dalton just 153 passing yards vs the Saints and two int's, 211yards off 36 pass attempts at Baltimore, both touchdowns were on short field. Next man up Tyler Boyd caught three of four targets against the Saints, four of 11 against Baltimore. The Saints' pass D has improved with the acquisition of Eli Apple, 72 opposing passer rating in past three games. Baltimore's secondary is stacked, second-best opposing passer rating.
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Cleveland's secondary does not quite have an Eli Apple and does not have Baltimore's depth of talent. It had a starting corner injured for the season--Terrance Mitchell-- and then his backup E.J. Gaines. Unlike both New Orleans and Baltimore, it's been shredded lately. conceding an average of over 300 yards in the past three games, including 300+ to Atlanta, who only scored 16 points largely due to turnovers (two fumbles, out of downs on the Cleveland 1) and Tampa Bay who focused on the pass with its plethora of weapons at wide receiver but also threw a couple of picks and needed overtime for 26 points, conceded deep bombs to Phillip Rivers in a first-half (and then full-game) blowout.
In those games, Ward covered the opponent's top receiver, Antonio Brown caught six of eight for 74 but he's also the best in the game and 74 isn't much. Ward's scouting report as a rookie posited concern over his physicality. Mike Evans and Julio caught 70% of targets for 100+ but they are way, way more physical and well-sized and more talented than Boyd, not even in the same league. No other receiver for Bengals besides Boyd and Green has more than 300 yards on the season! Dalton ranks 26th of 29th in PFF adjusted completion percentage, only ahead of Trubisky, Rosen and Darnold.
So, I think Dalton can have more success than he did against the Saints and Ravens, but that isn't saying much, and he should be helped by being in a game that isn't a blowout and where he can get more support from his rush attack.
If Cincy chooses to focus on the run, it can have success here. The o-line ranks bottom-five and trends downward. The Browns, though, have a middling run defense that ranks top 10 in power and stuff rate, but is abysmal against the running back in the second level. Its defensive tackles have been rotated endlessly from week to week as the players at the position continue to disappoint. The linebackers have Schrobert back but miss Kirksey. The unit as a whole gives up too many big plays because it lacks discipline and cohesiveness and for other reasons gives up too many 10+-yard rush gains. When Rivers didn't throw for many yards, Gordon ran for 130+ on 18 carries. When Roethlisberger didn't throw for many, James Conner rank for 130+ on 4.4 YPC. Mixon is a good back, averaging 4.6 YPC. In sum, the d-line will get plenty of stuffs and short gains but also too many double-digit gains.
So the Browns "should have" given up mid-20's to the Falcons (although Browns rank second in turnovers, it's something they consistently do well)--that's Matt Ryan and a plethora of good receivers, mid 20's to the Bucs, Jameis and solid receivers, then 30's to elite Steelers and Chiefs who are solid throughout the offense. Bengals are a very big downgrade at quarterback, offensive line, and wide receivers.
Stats prediction:
Dalton 220-250, 2 INT's.
Mixon should have 2-3 nice-sized gains and between 4 and 4.5 YPC.
Bottom line:
Browns second in passing dvoa, Dalton is having a terrible year, missing top target, crumbling o-line. Browns can afford to focus on the run, Mixon will break some nice-sized gains but get stuffed a lot and have a pretty good, but only pretty good, day. I'll put Cincy at 20 points.
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Baker's maturation: 9 touchdowns 2 int's, 61-85% past four starts, compared to 4 TD's 5 INT's, 47-58% first three starts. Passer rating over 90 against KC, Tampa, Atlanta, each bottom-half in pass defense ranking. Cincy ranks 18th. Starting corner Dre Kirkpatrick listed as 'doubtful.' I'd expect something like 200-230 yards, 60-65% completion, 2 td's 0 int's for Baker. Expecting Njoku (limited in practice this week again) to play, he and Baker have always had great rapport. Hopefully he can play well when he's in there.
Key in the running game. Bengals' d-line been a mess, three active defensive tackles, one just signed off the practice squad from Dallas. Starting linebacker Nick Vigil out. Rush defense ranks 30th. D-line is 32nd in stuff rate, 29th in power rate, 30th in second-level, 24th in open field. Bengals rank last in opp rush yards per game, averaging 212 opposing rush yards in past three games! It impressed me how many yards and points Baltimore could accrue without any threat of a passing attack. Chubb has consistently been accruing 40+ yard gains, I think he can break some big ones and churn out 100+ yards. Baker has improved since his new OC began utilizing the strength of Duke Johnson as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Three TD receptions in past two games. That's a nice help for a young quarterback. Bengals' linebackers are very poor in pass coverage. I think both backs have a big game. Chubb can go for 120+ and get a couple touchdowns.
I'll put the Browns at 27.
Conclusion:
So I like Browns' passing attack more because Baker is more efficient and more ball-secure than Dalton, he spreads the ball more against a secondary missing Kirkpatrick whereas Dalton is more dependent on Boyd, who is much less of a challenge for the already evidently capable Denzel Ward, and doesn't have Green.
I like the Browns' running backs more because they're more versatile and because the Bengals are such a mess in their front seven.
Browns are the fresher team off a bye. I don't think their road woes constitute a fair point against them.
I think taking the Browns is the best way to approach this game.
Browns 0-4 on the road, but I don't think the reality is quite as bad as it seems. The first loss was 21-18 at New Orleans, which was blown by atrocious field goal kicking, and the loss, at this point in the season, looks like a really good one. At the Raiders on the West Coast. Nail-biter at Tampa Bay. Then at hot Pittsburgh. In Cincinnati, the crowd may be more 50-50 and obviously the travel aspect isn't too bad.
Bengals without A.J. Green. I also think this is something that gets overstated. Last two weeks rather bad without him, 14 points vs New Orleans, 21 at Baltimore. Dalton just 153 passing yards vs the Saints and two int's, 211yards off 36 pass attempts at Baltimore, both touchdowns were on short field. Next man up Tyler Boyd caught three of four targets against the Saints, four of 11 against Baltimore. The Saints' pass D has improved with the acquisition of Eli Apple, 72 opposing passer rating in past three games. Baltimore's secondary is stacked, second-best opposing passer rating.
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Cleveland's secondary does not quite have an Eli Apple and does not have Baltimore's depth of talent. It had a starting corner injured for the season--Terrance Mitchell-- and then his backup E.J. Gaines. Unlike both New Orleans and Baltimore, it's been shredded lately. conceding an average of over 300 yards in the past three games, including 300+ to Atlanta, who only scored 16 points largely due to turnovers (two fumbles, out of downs on the Cleveland 1) and Tampa Bay who focused on the pass with its plethora of weapons at wide receiver but also threw a couple of picks and needed overtime for 26 points, conceded deep bombs to Phillip Rivers in a first-half (and then full-game) blowout.
In those games, Ward covered the opponent's top receiver, Antonio Brown caught six of eight for 74 but he's also the best in the game and 74 isn't much. Ward's scouting report as a rookie posited concern over his physicality. Mike Evans and Julio caught 70% of targets for 100+ but they are way, way more physical and well-sized and more talented than Boyd, not even in the same league. No other receiver for Bengals besides Boyd and Green has more than 300 yards on the season! Dalton ranks 26th of 29th in PFF adjusted completion percentage, only ahead of Trubisky, Rosen and Darnold.
So, I think Dalton can have more success than he did against the Saints and Ravens, but that isn't saying much, and he should be helped by being in a game that isn't a blowout and where he can get more support from his rush attack.
If Cincy chooses to focus on the run, it can have success here. The o-line ranks bottom-five and trends downward. The Browns, though, have a middling run defense that ranks top 10 in power and stuff rate, but is abysmal against the running back in the second level. Its defensive tackles have been rotated endlessly from week to week as the players at the position continue to disappoint. The linebackers have Schrobert back but miss Kirksey. The unit as a whole gives up too many big plays because it lacks discipline and cohesiveness and for other reasons gives up too many 10+-yard rush gains. When Rivers didn't throw for many yards, Gordon ran for 130+ on 18 carries. When Roethlisberger didn't throw for many, James Conner rank for 130+ on 4.4 YPC. Mixon is a good back, averaging 4.6 YPC. In sum, the d-line will get plenty of stuffs and short gains but also too many double-digit gains.
So the Browns "should have" given up mid-20's to the Falcons (although Browns rank second in turnovers, it's something they consistently do well)--that's Matt Ryan and a plethora of good receivers, mid 20's to the Bucs, Jameis and solid receivers, then 30's to elite Steelers and Chiefs who are solid throughout the offense. Bengals are a very big downgrade at quarterback, offensive line, and wide receivers.
Stats prediction:
Dalton 220-250, 2 INT's.
Mixon should have 2-3 nice-sized gains and between 4 and 4.5 YPC.
Bottom line:
Browns second in passing dvoa, Dalton is having a terrible year, missing top target, crumbling o-line. Browns can afford to focus on the run, Mixon will break some nice-sized gains but get stuffed a lot and have a pretty good, but only pretty good, day. I'll put Cincy at 20 points.
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Baker's maturation: 9 touchdowns 2 int's, 61-85% past four starts, compared to 4 TD's 5 INT's, 47-58% first three starts. Passer rating over 90 against KC, Tampa, Atlanta, each bottom-half in pass defense ranking. Cincy ranks 18th. Starting corner Dre Kirkpatrick listed as 'doubtful.' I'd expect something like 200-230 yards, 60-65% completion, 2 td's 0 int's for Baker. Expecting Njoku (limited in practice this week again) to play, he and Baker have always had great rapport. Hopefully he can play well when he's in there.
Key in the running game. Bengals' d-line been a mess, three active defensive tackles, one just signed off the practice squad from Dallas. Starting linebacker Nick Vigil out. Rush defense ranks 30th. D-line is 32nd in stuff rate, 29th in power rate, 30th in second-level, 24th in open field. Bengals rank last in opp rush yards per game, averaging 212 opposing rush yards in past three games! It impressed me how many yards and points Baltimore could accrue without any threat of a passing attack. Chubb has consistently been accruing 40+ yard gains, I think he can break some big ones and churn out 100+ yards. Baker has improved since his new OC began utilizing the strength of Duke Johnson as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Three TD receptions in past two games. That's a nice help for a young quarterback. Bengals' linebackers are very poor in pass coverage. I think both backs have a big game. Chubb can go for 120+ and get a couple touchdowns.
I'll put the Browns at 27.
Conclusion:
So I like Browns' passing attack more because Baker is more efficient and more ball-secure than Dalton, he spreads the ball more against a secondary missing Kirkpatrick whereas Dalton is more dependent on Boyd, who is much less of a challenge for the already evidently capable Denzel Ward, and doesn't have Green.
I like the Browns' running backs more because they're more versatile and because the Bengals are such a mess in their front seven.
Browns are the fresher team off a bye. I don't think their road woes constitute a fair point against them.
I think taking the Browns is the best way to approach this game.
