Bengals MNF

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
I never play NFL except playoffs and some occasional Lions games, shit and gig parlays, but I love this game.


ML +295 for 1 unit

+7.5 for 3 units

GL all.
 
NE has had the benefit of playing shit teams..1 which they videotaped..god, is SD awful this year.

NE WILL score points but a good qb at home and at night will keep them in the game. I jsut don't think NE has been tested yet from an offensive standpoint.

They get lucky and Losman gets hurt and 2nd play of the game, and Rivers has been horrific this year...they knew all of NYJ's plays they should beat them by 30.

Don't get me wrong, NE is the best team in the league next to indy but 7.5 is a lot of points.
 
damn, son. now i know where my balls went...

luv the plays...pussed out on cincy myself...but will be rooting for you to hit this fucker, bro. BOL
 
GL with the play, i like them as well but my intuition tells me to stay away so that is what i am going to do.
 
I would love the play if Rudi was playing...he's a huge loss though..

I hope they spread em out and throw a shitton...no real 3rd receiver option though w/ Tab hurt and Henry out..

two middle LB's out too..which w/ a power running attack going against you..that's not good...

I sure as hell hope your right Hunt.
 
I hope they spread em out and throw a shitton...no real 3rd receiver option though w/ Tab hurt and Henry out..

two middle LB's out too..which w/ a power running attack going against you..that's not good...

You said it, JOB, no WR3 means the safeties can double team 85 and TJ because the LBs and DL should get enough pressure on Palmer without blitzing.
 
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You said it, JOB, no WR3 means the safeties can double team 85 and TJ because the LBs and DL should get enough pressure on Palmer without blitzing.
they can double em all they want...if they double em both, then Cincy will run the ball w/ Watson...

also, FB Jeremi Johnson will get some carries from TB position as well..

Watson will be the stretch guy...carries between tackles alot w/ go to Jeremi w/ Rudi out..

Cincy will score tonight...you can count on that.
 
My biggest concern is containing Moroney..he has 115 yds on 11 carries vs Cincy last year and absolutely posterized Madieu Willaims on one carry..
 
I think in situations like this... it's a lot of what your gut feels. All reason and logic point to NE. However, when I first saw the +7 1/2 it jumped out at me.

Yes, it's bad to bet with emotions/feelings, but am I really getting emotional when my intuition points out that this was an odd line? At 7 1/2 NE is just BEGGING for action.

I think this line is a perfect illustration of what Malcom Gladwell talks about in the book "Blink". For those of you who haven't read it, he makes a "scientific" case that quick judgments can be just as good as decisions pondered over a long period of time.
 
I think in situations like this... it's a lot of what your gut feels. All reason and logic point to NE. However, when I first saw the +7 1/2 it jumped out at me.

Yes, it's bad to bet with emotions/feelings, but am I really getting emotional when my intuition points out that this was an odd line? At 7 1/2 NE is just BEGGING for action.

I think this line is a perfect illustration of what Malcom Gladwell talks about in the book "Blink". For those of you who haven't read it, he makes a "scientific" case that quick judgments can be just as good as decisions pondered over a long period of time.


Actually, for those that dont cap, if you run some numbers you will see that the actual numbers for tonight's match-up will come out to anywhere from New England -7 to NE -10 so as far as the line goes, its pretty darn true. But now add some other intangibles and its a different picture. The problem is, it is now a personal evaluation and not backed up by actual "data". How much do you cap for a team's emotional state, can you really cap for turnovers? ( I think you can go by past history) But anyways, my point is, that line is really not too far fetched BUT, we've only had a few games to base it on and tonight will change those numbers again.
 
They get lucky and Losman gets hurt and 2nd play of the game,

If you watch that replay, I don't think that injury had much to do with luck at all.
 
great discussion gentlemen and thanks for the well wishes. I am confident in this game, but would not be surprised by any outcome. I am a gambling man and I don't overthink or analyze too much at all...just not my nature.

Anything can happen in the world of sports, especially football.

GL all.
 
Huge that Maroney is out...as I said he was my biggest concern...really helps our ability to get a pass rush...

Cash this shit Hunt.
 
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