BenchCoach
Pretty much a regular
Normally really don't play much until after about a week of spring games...Goal is to make $1,000 bucks this spring but I will play up until St Pats day even if I've achieved the goal prior. I used to hit my mark and stop playing but I found most years I was leaving money on the table. I will not have daily write ups on picks but when I have the time I will try and explain the logic I'm using to make plays. I use a couple filters to sort out games each day and the rest is all just capping individual games using the knowledge I've acquired through experience in these very spots. There are two plays I like today for different reasons...
KC is one of those organizations' that presents value every spring. Much of the lines in spring games are based on teams/organization's reputations and what they did during the regular season last year. Obviously two useless factors when determining whos going to navigate the minefield that is spring training and find a W on any given day. KC tends to put more focus on winning games during spring and they are a team that the betting public will typically fade this time of year. Today they are way over priced vs a brutal Sox club but the early line movement this morning suggests that this is the right side more often than not. I always ask myself this question before I pull the trigger on any game...If they played this game 10 times how many times would KC win?? In this case I have them winning this matchup 7.5-8 times out of 10. That's pretty good odds in a spring game. Be careful just straight fading the Sox in spring training as they will most likely try and put some emphasis on winning because they know they are in for a long 6 month ass beating once the season starts. This is more of a spot play for KC today and I believe its a good one based on the above reasoning and available info on todays lineup.
BOS over the last 2+ years has the best home win percentage in the grapefruit, so when they are at home I pay attention. TOR will not travel their A squad this early in the spring on a Sunday. Major overnight line movement (40+ points) confirms this as a play for today. Normally don't see that type of movement at this point in spring unless there is a good reason. It makes a lot of sense in this spot. Early on in ST games I have learned to go with my gut feelings, years of experience in these situations, and always remember to keep it simple this time of year.
2/23
Parlay +138 ($100 to win $138)
BOS ML
KC ML
KC is one of those organizations' that presents value every spring. Much of the lines in spring games are based on teams/organization's reputations and what they did during the regular season last year. Obviously two useless factors when determining whos going to navigate the minefield that is spring training and find a W on any given day. KC tends to put more focus on winning games during spring and they are a team that the betting public will typically fade this time of year. Today they are way over priced vs a brutal Sox club but the early line movement this morning suggests that this is the right side more often than not. I always ask myself this question before I pull the trigger on any game...If they played this game 10 times how many times would KC win?? In this case I have them winning this matchup 7.5-8 times out of 10. That's pretty good odds in a spring game. Be careful just straight fading the Sox in spring training as they will most likely try and put some emphasis on winning because they know they are in for a long 6 month ass beating once the season starts. This is more of a spot play for KC today and I believe its a good one based on the above reasoning and available info on todays lineup.
BOS over the last 2+ years has the best home win percentage in the grapefruit, so when they are at home I pay attention. TOR will not travel their A squad this early in the spring on a Sunday. Major overnight line movement (40+ points) confirms this as a play for today. Normally don't see that type of movement at this point in spring unless there is a good reason. It makes a lot of sense in this spot. Early on in ST games I have learned to go with my gut feelings, years of experience in these situations, and always remember to keep it simple this time of year.
2/23
Parlay +138 ($100 to win $138)
BOS ML
KC ML
