I usually do pretty good in the NFL post season. I've always focused on a couple key factors and been able to block out all the distractions. There are many distractions when you get to this point of the season from a gambling standpoint on these games. You have people come out of no where giving their expert opinions and awesome trends. Most folks over emphasize the QB position and they mistake the popularity of a QB for the reality of the situation.
The number one factor and most of the time the deciding factor I use to decide these late season matchups is defense. In particular run defense. If you don't have it you will most likely not win or get to the Super Bowl. There have been teams over the years that have bucked this theory but at the end of the day DEFENSE still wins championships. Next I look at run game. Does a team have the kind of smash mouth run game that can win in a blizzard. Not talking about fancy RPO runs. The kind of running game where everyone in the stadium knows were gonna run the ball and they can't stop us kind of running game. Third Quarterbacks. Is there a drastic difference in quarterbacks.
Both QB's are a wash for me in the the Frisco matchup. Hurts hasn't proven himself to me yet. If he wins today and is successful he could change my mind. Purdy is still a rookie and this is going to be the toughest test in his young career. Hurts needs to carry his team to victory while Purdy just needs to not lose the game. Advantage Frisco (small advantage in what each teams QB needs to do to win)...Both teams have a solid run game. Will call that a draw...Now the real difference, the Frisco run D is the best and has been the best over the course of the season. The Philly run D is the worst of the 4 teams left in the postseason. It will be tough and Philly is a tough place to play. If Frisco makes multiple big mistakes this game could easily go to philly. I expect few possessions as both teams try to pound the rock and that will run the clock.
In matchup number 2 of the day I count both QB's as a wash. They are the two best QB's in the league at the moment with of course Patrick slight edge just based on resume. The winner of todays game will hold the best qb title belt for me. I do have to give a slight edge to Burrow today however. The type of ankle sprain Pat has is no joke. He will be shot up and taped up but he still is fighting against it. Don't kid yourself the Bengals defense will go after his ankle if they can get to him. The most important factor in this game is the diffrence in defense. Bengals have a top tier defense and KC doesn't. This should decide the game. If Cincy is running the ball down KC's throat early it will spell trouble for the Chiefs. I do expect some Maholmes magic but 1 man alone doesn't win a SB much less 1 injured man.
Forget all the distractions and other stuff, I'll ride or die today with the two best defenses in each game.
