GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
Not the detailed analysis like the Derby but here are my Belmont thoughts.
There is no DOUBT who the best horse in the race is. It's clear. The reason the Triple Crown is so tough to win is because throughbreds aren't typically built to win 3 grueling races in 5 weeks. Throw in the fact that the competition in the Belmont is typically much more well rested than a Triple Crown candidate, having not participated in all three races, and the deck is stacked against horses trying to sweep through the third leg like California Chrome last year. Also, with the Belmont being the longest of the events at a mile and a half, it's another impediment.
As far as things go, this is about as good a spot as #5 American Pharaoh could have hoped for. I typically go against horses in the Belmont going for the Triple Crown but I really do think he will win but he's no lock.
I only see two horses with a chance to beat him:
#6 Frosted looks fast enough to pull this off and is a must use on tickets.
#8 Materiality got off to a bad start in the Derby and didn't run his race but there's a good chance he will be out on the front end and they will have him to track down. Outside shot at going to lead and rating the pace and trying to steal it but not likely.
#7 Keen Ice is a stone cold closer and could catch a piece of this late although the win end would be a big surprise. Will be using on bottom of tickets
#1 Mubtaahij wasn't bad in the Derby and has been working very well but not convinced he's good enough. Not a completer toss but not sold he's at this level.
#3 Madefromlucky has won at Belmont before and has a top jockey and is not completely out of the question on tickets.
#2 Tale of Verve and #4 Frammento are tosses to me. I don't see Tale of Verve being anything like the Preakness. I think the mud was an aid.
My play is nothing outside the box. I like AP and Frosted on top and will key them in trifectas.
Key (Biggest bets):
5,6 with 5,6 with 7,8
5,6 with 7,8 with 5,6
Also:
5,6 with 5,6,7,8 with 5,6,7,8
5,6 with 5,6 with 1,3
Smaller
5,6 with 5,6,7,8 with 1,3
8 with 5,6 with 5,6,7,8
There is no DOUBT who the best horse in the race is. It's clear. The reason the Triple Crown is so tough to win is because throughbreds aren't typically built to win 3 grueling races in 5 weeks. Throw in the fact that the competition in the Belmont is typically much more well rested than a Triple Crown candidate, having not participated in all three races, and the deck is stacked against horses trying to sweep through the third leg like California Chrome last year. Also, with the Belmont being the longest of the events at a mile and a half, it's another impediment.
As far as things go, this is about as good a spot as #5 American Pharaoh could have hoped for. I typically go against horses in the Belmont going for the Triple Crown but I really do think he will win but he's no lock.
I only see two horses with a chance to beat him:
#6 Frosted looks fast enough to pull this off and is a must use on tickets.
#8 Materiality got off to a bad start in the Derby and didn't run his race but there's a good chance he will be out on the front end and they will have him to track down. Outside shot at going to lead and rating the pace and trying to steal it but not likely.
#7 Keen Ice is a stone cold closer and could catch a piece of this late although the win end would be a big surprise. Will be using on bottom of tickets
#1 Mubtaahij wasn't bad in the Derby and has been working very well but not convinced he's good enough. Not a completer toss but not sold he's at this level.
#3 Madefromlucky has won at Belmont before and has a top jockey and is not completely out of the question on tickets.
#2 Tale of Verve and #4 Frammento are tosses to me. I don't see Tale of Verve being anything like the Preakness. I think the mud was an aid.
My play is nothing outside the box. I like AP and Frosted on top and will key them in trifectas.
Key (Biggest bets):
5,6 with 5,6 with 7,8
5,6 with 7,8 with 5,6
Also:
5,6 with 5,6,7,8 with 5,6,7,8
5,6 with 5,6 with 1,3
Smaller
5,6 with 5,6,7,8 with 1,3
8 with 5,6 with 5,6,7,8
