Belmont Saturday
Race 3 Woody Stephens - Rematch from Derby day only a furlong shorter, where Jackie's Warrior (3) beat Dream Shake (4) in a great stretch duel. Drain the Clock (2) comes in fresh and with a pair of 7f stakes wins under his belt, while Caddo River (6) gets off the Triple Crown trail and cuts back. #3 is certainly the quickest of the bunch, but if #2 and #6 get pressure on him then it could allow #4 to turn the tables. I think you have to choose between singling #3 here or using all four in the multis.
A - 3,4,6 B - 2
Race 4 Brooklyn - Decent group of distance runners in a preview of the 12f Belmont. Musical Heart (5) is the speed of the speed and with Carmouche on the front end he should be a player to carry them the distance. Favorite Tizamagician (8) comes off a pretty easy 12f win in Cali but he's had his own way on soft paces the last few, I think this will be a little too much for him. I'm taking a stand against. Lone Rock (9) is 2 for 3 at this unusual distance and figures to be competitive. If the race up front does get too hot then Campaign (3) and Ajaaweed (7) can be in play. The other horse I'm not sure what to do with is Moretti (6) who comes off a 10 month layoff for Pletcher. The last time he was off this long he ran a dull 5th, but his works have been sharp and Pletcher is a Belmont king.
A - 3,5,9 B - 6,7
Race 5 Acorn - Search Results (6) just missed in the KY Oaks and is a deserving favorite in this small field. But there does figure to be some pace pressure with Miss Brazil (3) stretching out. That could open the door for Dayoutoftheoffice (4) or Travel Column (1) to attack. If it gets too quick then Obligatory (2) could become a major player. I'll probably leave Travel Column out as he has been more oriented to two turn races.
A - 2,6 B - 4
Race 6 Jaipur - Interesting sprint race that seems to lack a proven early speed horse. To me that favors Bound for Nowhere (6), Sombeyay (12) and Stubbins (10) who figure to form the vanguard. At 6 furlongs on a soft turf course the closing ability of late runners may be dulled a bit. Fast Boat (4) and Gregorian Chant (8) look like the best closers, the former ran down Sombeyay on Derby day while the latter has three straight wins at the distance and fought some softer paces to do it.
A - 6,10,12 B - 4,8
Race 7 Ogden Phipps - Scratches have cut this field to five, Shedaresthedevil (5) figures to control things up front for Brad Cox, who then also has the closer Bonny South (7) that's been a real buzz horse this week. Their main competitor is favorite Letruska (3) who is a win machine at 13/18 lifetime and is a head from being 5 for 5 at the distance. Hard to leave any of them out.
A - 3,5,7
Race 8 Just a Game - Easily the best betting race of the day, 12 talented fillies and mares and you can make a decent case for all of them. Chad Brown is well represented with a four pack that run the full range of pace scenarios. (scratched) Blowout (11) figures to be controlling speed and has not been more than a length from the winner in any of her 12 races. Regal Glory (4) has back to back wins on soft turf and will be among the first to attack. Tamahere (10) has seen growing buzz after her good 2nd in the Jenny Wiley under similar conditions. And Pocket Square (6) is a proven closer with a stakes win in France under heavy turf. The other trainer bringing multiple entries is Charles Appleby, who's got two Euros coming in by way of Dubai. Althiqa (8) and Summer Romance (9) traded wins in the desert and Appleby always ships with intent. If you can afford to spread I think you need to use all six and hope for the best. Underneath throw in Zofelle and Always Shopping.
A - 4,6,10,11 B - 8,9
Race 9 Met Mile - As wide open as race 8 is, race 9 looks like a single with Knicks Go (6) appearing to be lone speed and speed figures that are several lengths better than all but Mischevious Alex's (#1) last race. The only two questions: 1) is he fully recovered from his trip to Dubai? His last 4 works seem to suggest yes, and 2) how does the cutback to a one-turn mile affect his running style? Do #1 and Lexitonian (#4) put any early pressure on? If they do there's a scenario where Dr. Post (#2) or Silver State (#3) makes a move early in the stretch to steal this. I think with the wide open nature of race 8 most will look to single here.
A - 6 B - 1,2,3
Race 10 Manhattan - Chad has four in this one too but all eyes are on Domestic Spending (#4) who showed a lightning turn of foot in Kentucky to dead heat with Colonel Liam (#10). Those two are anticipated to be the top two here as well, although there are a few interesting horses at a price. Gufo (#9) missed by a nose in the Man O' War, can Rosario get him a little closer to the action here? He's 2/2 on soft turf. Channel Cat (#7) stole that race on the front end. He probably won't see an easy lead here. Chad's other three horses (#5, #6, #8) all are just a notch below Domestic Spending. Tribhuvan (#8) comes off a nice win in the Fort Marcy over Rockemperor (#6) who's adding blinkers. Master Piece comes from Chile and has been getting some buzz off a recent win at Keeneland.
A - 4,10 B-9
Race 11 Belmont Stakes - A small field but a lot of the Derby and Preakness main players. Rock Your World (#7) should get a much better chance here, would expect him to go right to the front and carry the field as long as possible. Essential Quality (#2) and Hot Rod Charlie (#4) are both going to track close and make first run, with Rombauer (#3) and Known Agenda (#6) looking to get by in the stretch. The race often becomes a gallopers race, meaning whoever can carry their speed the longest will get the prize. My guess is it comes down to #2, #3 and #4.
A - 2,3,4 B - 6,7
