BeLIEve811 Half Thread (Got The Book's Number Now)

[Gorgolon Lives]

NBA Posted Half Plays YTD: 50 - 30 - 1

Stupid play on Washington 2H last night when the line was obviously 1point off. I really think I have a feel for the book's adjustments that they've been making at half now. One thing to watch for is overvalue in double-digit road favorites. This week that's been happening...

New Orleans / Oklahoma City Jazz v Millwaukee Bucks UNDER 99 1H

I see a lot of people on the full game UNDER, but I will avoid that because I think Millwaukee keeps this real close and wins SU here. With the fouls and the late game bullshit, I'll avoid the full game UNDER and the possibility of a "moose". But this 1H UNDER is going to hit. NOK off an OT game B2B scoring 114. And Millwaukee off a 116 point win against Orlando. You usually see a low scoring start of the game with teams coming off large scoring outings. And you will see that tonight. I think this line is an absolute JOKE and won't even reach 90. I was very close to making this a 2* play, but like I said I expect a very strong performance from Millwaukee tonight, so this game COULD get crazy.

I'll have the TNT 2H's later. I expect Detroit to come out strong tonight, so I'll look to find value in LA LAKERS at the half.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

For reference:

I think I have a really good feel for all 3 NBA games tonight. These are my full game plays. I feel strong about a 3-0 night.

Bucks +5 (think they win SU)
Pistons ML (worth the juice IMO. Looking for value in LA 2H for a middle)
Bulls +2.5 (think this game is a PK. I know the books gotta make this line where it is, but I think it comes down to the final possession either way.)

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Suggested 2.5/1 Parlay:

Detroit ML
Washington ML (CBB)
Bucks +4.5

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Gonna see NOK -1 but its off IMO.

 

[scourge]

fuck yeah
​

Excellent play with NO Under 99. Another good call believe, nice work. Tailed that one heavy
​

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Gonna see NOK -1 but its off IMO.

I actualy posted this BEFORE I seen the 1H #'s ... All the #s point to NOK keeping this up. Im on Millw. I'll just pray.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

fuck yeah
​

Excellent play with NO Under 99. Another good call believe, nice work. Tailed that one heavy
​

Thanks Scourge...Caught an overvalued line there, bud. GL tonight!

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

with the books adjusted lines, Lakers will be -1.5, though I'd have em at 2.5 or 3. Lets see...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks BAR...Im actually 1/2 drunk right now. So cheers to you!

 

[j3pj3p]

Noh-1 94.5

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

j3p... I think the books are DEAD on with this line. I wouldnt touch this one for ANYTHING. NOK should keep this up, but youre losing value in the game line, so why bet it? I have Millw +4.5 game, so I'll just pray they comeback.

 

[scourge]

over 94.5?

Detroit Under 98.5?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Scourge havent looked a totals yet, gimme a second. LOOK AT LAKERS AT -1.5! FUCK THE BOOKS!!!!

 

[thecakeoff]

LA -1.5 2h looks like a sucker bet

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Lean UNDER in NOK. (wouldnt touch that for shit.)

Lean OVER in DET but thats a no-play. Really lookin at LAL though 2H.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

LA -1.5 2h looks like a sucker bet

Cake, I'd say that, but the books have been adjusting these lines for some reason. They've been off lately. I'm looking at this as a play, a few weeks back I wouldnt, but now I am.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Guys, is the lakers line moving? I only have access to my book.

 

[TightWad]

stone cold at -1.5 and 98.5

under looks like the play?

 

[scourge]

I just got Detroit +1.5 @+100

 

[TightWad]

just went to -120 on the -1.5

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

stone cold at -1.5 and 98.5

under looks like the play?

I disagee respectfully tightwad. OVER looks like the play, but its not good enough to play IMO.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Ok, thanks guys. BAD movement on LAL. I woulda played em if the line staying at -110 at 1.5...Don't like the movement.

 

[TightWad]

believe - you can disagree all you want. in fact, i encourage it. you're the halftime guru. not me.

 

[j3pj3p]

I really don't think Lakers can come back and win this game, but i'm just not sure how much points Detroit will win

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

FUCK IT!

Lakers -1.5

I did this w/ Washington last night. Hope I dont get burnt tonight.

 

[TightWad]

juice just went on the under -115 for 98.5

 

[TightWad]

and the -120 went back to -115

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Slight caution on the Lakers bet though. I'm on DET ML, so I'm kinda looking for the middle. Even if I wasnt, I'd still be on LAL though.

 

[ontime23]

Believe,

I'm going to middle my over play by the 15.5 available

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Believe,

I'm going to middle my over play by the 15.5 available

GL man. I'm in favor of middles anytime.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

If this Lakers bet loses, I'll be pissed. But IMO the line is off 1.5 pts. So we should see DET win by 8 or 9. But I think Lakers have a little run in em and challenge the game line.

 

[scourge]

we'll see

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Lakers is gonna lose. My main concern is Millw fucking covered this 4.5...They should have won this in regulation!

 

[scourge]

I just got Detroit +1.5 @+100

:drink:

 

[Capt. Slap]

LOL, I can't believe I'm going to lose my New Orleans -4.5 bet

I just checked back after the end of the 3rd quarter and I'm in complete disbelief...

Here's to hoping for a 2nd Overtime :cheers:

 

[scourge]

jees this NOK game is painful

 

[scourge]

Bulls 1st Half Over 97

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Like it scourge.

 

[ontime23]

GL man. I'm in favor of middles anytime.

Luckily I chickened out and took the under 99

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Should see Sac -1, and I like Da Bulls.

 

[Capt. Slap]

@ the chances of an over in the Kings game

0%

But I'm still taking the over in the 2nd half!!!

 

[Bkzfinest80]

Yeah its pretty sad when you have to pray for double OT for the over....But stranger things have happened...

 

[Satyr]

exactly what I thought. Sacto wins 1st half, Bulls win the game. I hope. .

Come on Bulls.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Gl on that over guys. 2H should go over. I'd play Bulls +.5 here, but I already got em +2.5 full game. Not risking 2u on these bums. But I think they do cover the 2.5...Take it if you liked the bulls full game, but didnt pull the trigger. Otherwise, go to sleep cause this game SUCKS!

 

[Capt. Slap]

Yeah its pretty sad when you have to pray for double OT for the over....But stranger things have happened...

It's even sadder that I parlayed that over with Pistons -4 and the Under 195 in the Pistons game

 

[Capt. Slap]

haha 97...i should take the under buttttt i think ill lay off completely...gonna look at some thangs first brb

 

[Bkzfinest80]

Did you hedge CaptnSlap?

 

[Capt. Slap]

Nah man, no hedging for me...I have been hitting parlays like butter lately so it's not a crushing blow to me...just hoping it hits somehow you know? I added the over for the 2nd half in my thread if u check it out

BOL, lets get triple overtime!!1

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

San Jose St Wins!