BeLIEve811 Half Thread (16-5 Posted)

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm really getting a feel for the NBA now. I've limited my full game plays, because it's just been such a crazy year. I'm making more half plays, especially 2H plays. My 2H plays are simply based on the numbers of the 1H. I've mentioned before I used to run a joint local book. I've seen so many 2H lines the past few years that my friend and I would literally give out lines to our clients right off the top of our heads without checking any online books (If we didn't have computer access at the time). As long as we knew the score and the original game line, we could run off the lines just based on our knowledge. Most lines were rarely off by more than a point. And even if they were, they were the sucker lines, so we would cash them. This gives me the advantage of knowing lines before they become available. It gives me the ability to spot those sucker lines.
One play tonight:

Dallas Mavericks Basketball -3

I actually watched most of the Orlando game last night. They came out smoking in the 1H. I think it's going to be tough for this team to string together ANOTHER great 1H especially in a b2b situation. I expect Dallas to be up heavy in the 1H, and Orlando to make a run in the 4th behind their home crowd. In the end, when Dallas has Howard doubled, it's going to come down to the Orlando perimeter players to hit shots. I simply don't think they will get it done tonight, and I think Dallas pulls out a cover for the game too.

GL everyone!:smiley_acbe:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Full Game Play:

New Orleans Jazz +3.5

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Wizards probably cover the 2H, but I dont tihnk I'll be on it. Looking at Orlando...

 

[GirlieGirl]

2nd half time:wacka wacka: :wacka wacka: :wacka wacka: :wacka wacka:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

If Dallas holds 16, I expect Orlando to be -4 and I'll be on that #.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Orlando -2 is WAYYYYY off. I'll wait and hope theres no action going towards them.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Ok, Wizards probably cover, but it's a no-play. I don't like NOK, but can't play Philly because there's no value. Just hoping this Orlando stays at -2, and that'll be the play.

Anyone seeing more than 2 for Orlando at their book ?

 

[ontime23]

nope

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Yea, just making sure it's not a sucker bet. I think the books are just giving too much credit to Dallas and putting too much stock in the Orl b2b.

The play:
Orlando -2

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Dallas 64% shooting will decrease. Orlando 37% will increase. Orlando getting to the line 27 times in the 1H. That is an incredible # for a half. One of the highest I've seen this season. Harris with 3 fouls helps. Hes a good defender and probably is causing a lot of the Magic 9 TO's. I think Orlando storms back and challenges the game line, but doesn't come that close in the end.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Yea, GirlieGirl. 2H's are definately fun! Quick action...gotta love it.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

And here comes that Orlando run ...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Mavs continue to shoot lights out. That Terry 3 was sickening. On the other side, Magic continue to miss 2nd half free throws. Very pathetic game right now..

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Tough one with Orlando.

Adding:

Seattle Sonics Basketball 1H +1.5

Expecting a strong start for Seattle tonight. Liking Denver off that B2B with Melo not in full game shape yet.

 

[GirlieGirl]

Caught a nice middle on Wash over 231 and 2nd half under 114!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Caught a nice middle on Wash over 231 and 2nd half under 114!

Nice job, GirlieGirl! I had that full game over small. Scary ending!

money;

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Sonics 1H hits...

Den 2H might be kinda weird. I expect it to only be Denver -3.

 

[pcb525]

i'm getting den -4, ou 107

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

4's about right...

No reason to take any side here, really. No value...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I wont be playing this. I already got Sonics +3 and the ML. Might be worth a shot to play Seattle if the line gets hit up to 5.

 

[pcb525]

I kinda like the over 107

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Clueless on this one, pcb. Denver back to missing ft's again.

 

[GirlieGirl]

Leaning over myself! I have the over 216.

 

[pcb525]

true, my only thinking is that iverson's not going to shoot 30% all night

 

[Capt. Slap]

Believe811...do you have any of her videos?

I/m me - gsob8 lol

the chick in ur avy

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think if it stays close, the over has a shot. I got a funny feeling we'll be seeing subs the last half of the 4th. I think Seattle pulls away in this...

Slap a hoe...LOL nah man, sorry!

 

[pcb525]

and i see the 20% for den and 12% for sea from behind the arch coming up a little. Just some thoughts though

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

and i see the 20% for den and 12% for sea from behind the arch coming up a little. Just some thoughts though

You gotta think Den hits a few 3s but their 2 best 3 ball shooters each have 3 fouls a piece.

 

[GirlieGirl]

Having a good nite so why push it.
Maybe the Clip game will have something!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Having a good nite so why push it.
Maybe the Clip game will have something!

Agreed GirlieGirl. The main thing in this Sea/Den game is there is no value in comparison to the game lines. No reason to play on this one. If I didnt have action already on SEA, I'd prob take SEA 2H very small.

 

[GirlieGirl]

I think the under in the Clip game will be a play!
I have the over 194 for the game. That will leave a HUGE middle!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Clippers should be -1.5

 

[$$$$inmywallett]

will you play it if it is?

 

[$$$$inmywallett]

Clips -2

 

[GirlieGirl]

Clips-2 & 98

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

The Under looks good...I think the game gets back to reality. Clips pull away and both teams cool off. Fouls scare me though...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Bucks 2h -2

Playing this

 

[touc]

do you mean +2?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

wtf...CLippers -2. I'm stressing watching this Sonics game LOL.

 

[GirlieGirl]

Good Nite BeLIEve811. Going to take my Clip over cash and be happy!!


:smiley_aalg: :7_11_4:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Ok, GirlieGirl g'nite. Wish me luck on Seattle!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Clippers get the job done.

3-1 tonight on the half plays, congrats everyone!

 

[GirlieGirl]

Should have played that 2nd half under 98 in the Clip game!
I knew it was a perfect under spot! oh well tomorrow is another day!