Beginning of Summer Friday Discussion

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Fri 5/23


</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>951</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
C. Zambrano
</TD><TD>-1.5 -106</TD><TD>-169</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -119</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>952</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
Z. Duke
</TD><TD>+1.5 -104</TD><TD>+161</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +109</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>953</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
B. Zito
</TD><TD>+1.5 -141</TD><TD>+154</TD><TD>OVER 9 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>954</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
S. Olsen
</TD><TD>-1.5 +131</TD><TD>-162</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>955</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis
</TD><TD>+1.5 -164</TD><TD>+130</TD><TD>OVER 10 +105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:35 PM</TD><TD>956</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
J. Reyes
</TD><TD>-1.5 +154</TD><TD>-138</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -115</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>957</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
J. Suppan
</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-117</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:35 PM</TD><TD>958</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
O. Perez
</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+109</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>959</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
A. Eaton
</TD><TD>+1.5 -178</TD><TD>+106</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>960</TD><TD>Houston Astros
B. Backe
</TD><TD>-1.5 +168</TD><TD>-114</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -109</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>961</TD><TD>New York Mets
OL. Perez
</TD><TD>+1.5 -208</TD><TD>-104</TD><TD>OVER 10 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>06:05 PM</TD><TD>962</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
G. Reynolds
</TD><TD>-1.5 +188</TD><TD>-104</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>963</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
E. Volquez
</TD><TD>-1.5 +131</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 +116</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>964</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
S. Estes
</TD><TD>+1.5 -141</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -126</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>965</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
A. Wainwright
</TD><TD>+1.5 -194</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:40 PM</TD><TD>966</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
D. Lowe
</TD><TD>-1.5 +181</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -114


</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>
Fri 5/23

</TD><TD>967</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
K. Slowey
</TD><TD>+1.5 -145</TD><TD>+145</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>968</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
A. Galarraga
</TD><TD>-1.5 +135</TD><TD>-153</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>969</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
K. Gabbard
</TD><TD>+1.5 -143</TD><TD>+151</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -114</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>970</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona
</TD><TD>-1.5 +133</TD><TD>-159</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +104</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>971</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
E. Bedard
</TD><TD>+1.5 -184</TD><TD>+111</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>972</TD><TD>New York Yankees
A. Pettitte
</TD><TD>-1.5 +174</TD><TD>-119</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -116</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>973</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
Z. Greinke
</TD><TD>+1.5 -149</TD><TD>+144</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>974</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay
</TD><TD>-1.5 +139</TD><TD>-152</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>975</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie
</TD><TD>+1.5 -169</TD><TD>+125</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>976</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
M. Garza
</TD><TD>-1.5 +159</TD><TD>-133</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +100</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>977</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Saunders
</TD><TD>+1.5 -211</TD><TD>+102</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -125</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>978</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd
</TD><TD>-1.5 +191</TD><TD>-110</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +115</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/23</TD><TD>979</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
T. Wakefield
</TD><TD>+1.5 -184</TD><TD>+113</TD><TD>OVER 8 -115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>980</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
R. Harden
</TD><TD>-1.5 +174</TD><TD>-121</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +105</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:cheers:
 
initial thoughts... there are a lot of quality pitching matchups. And as a note with the hot weather, i will no longer be betting on texas, houston, philly unders as I am sick and tired of being burnt by heat carried long balls screwing me over. There comes to be a point where it doesnt matter who the damn ump is. If you hit that shit hard enough, it will leave the field. Going to oberve for a while.

-Beddard against Pettite looks very promising as both should be able to hold each offense and beddard off a gem with no decision. Definitely an ump decision.

-Carmona against gabbard, who really hasnt done too bad lately. I however refuse to play an under involving texas till they cool down regardless of this matchup being in cleveland, High whip and high power offense may EASILY = disaster for fausto, although he is one of my favs to bet. Possible bet on Texas.

-Doug Davis off the DL? Great story, great guy, but it's fade or no play for me. Cancer treatment has got take a toll on your feel for the big leagues. I dont care if my local covina native, jojo reyes is on the mound. Over may be the right call

-Greinke vs Halladay. Interesting game as it could very well be a 1-2 game or a 5-3 game the way both have been goin at it. Halladay inconsistent, but with the weak royals bats, im less inclined to worry.

-Zambrano vs duke.. Come on. We've all been burnt once or twice betting on the buccos. They get owned by the cubs. Nothing more to say though with that hefty price. Perhaps a little -1 rl action.

-Joe Saunders plus money? What the hell is going on? Yes, they traveled from canada and I am aware that floyd has had a couple no-no scares, but this is the angels. Vladi getting hot again and the team has been a set of road warriors this season. gotta look closer.

-Brandon backe is also a worthy look as he has been a reliable at home as of late with a hot offense as a backing against a medicore to shitty pitcher in eaton,

- Whenever you get the home team against a milwaukee team that is laying juice, you really have to take a close look. Odalis perez has been a bright spot for the nats this season and the milwaukee offensive production is a shadow of what they have at home. Especially with supan who has had flashes of brilliance, but has otherwise proven himself not worthy of being a road fav.

A lot of crap, but hope to get it all squared tomorrow..
 
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Another sloppy day to add to the week. Hands down dumbest play of the week was taking Cle with Laffey . He pitched well but again how many times did I say Mark Buerhle was held back by Guillen in his 1st start just to face Cleveland in these discussion posts??? Anyway point is Cle struggling with Laffey who has pitched well but is not a shutdown SP who can dominant a lineup . Cle despite its stack of RHB struggles to score runs off LH for awhile now and well they are in the midst of a slump to boot where as WSox are smoking..dumb ass play cost me a small fortune funny how my dumb plays always cost me a fortune....My sharpest plays were taking Philly as sort of a wakeup call to my Colorado loss yesterday. Little easy to decipher but they line was set low to entice Houston money . With Oswalt a question mark and the Astros having used its setup guy and closer last 2 games figured the late innings could be dicey . Which it was after a somewhat unexpected large hiccup by Phillies pen...another good read was playing that over however it was so small it was almost not even a blip . Simply figured Oswalt not healthy and the pen thin so good chance Philly could score some runs here while Kendrick is medicore on the road expected a 3 runs 6 inning start and maybe get 7 innings . So was looking for 4 runs from Houston and this worked out well except I didnt trust my read. Last smart play was SD . Both SP had strong success in the past vs opponent . Harang had the upper hand but I liked how well Wol had pitched at Petco except for Zona who was seeing him a 2nd time coupled with Cincy struggling in offense @ LAD , being 2-7 away vs LHSP beating a struggling Lilly early thanks soley to Joey Vottos huge day which if he didnt have the game looks totally different and beating up on Zito the start that got him pulled . Harang was 1-3 away and I think had lost all 3 starts he was road chalk in which makes sense since reds are .350 ish win % on the road ....oh and reds in Game 1s 4-11....so while on paper Harnag was a slight edge really the fact they were opened at about a PK (-105) seemed like the correct number to me and -120 to -130 was to high...of course I washed out with the Under 7 ....

Friday thoughts : Trust my instincts weekend!

Det and Galarraga :

So the Tiger bats have awoken !! Finally ! They have to avenge that sweep at the hand of Minny few weeks back and I think to make matters worse the Twins pen is taxed. Slowely has been serviceable so far on the road but Twinkies lost all 4 of his 2008 starts. The pen comes into play cause it looks like 6 innings is the most we can expect from Slowley as he hasnt even done that in 2008 yet. So more work for Minnys pen who lost in 10 today . Slowley has pitched @ Wsox , vs Tor and @ Col going 5 , 5.2 and 5.2 Outside of Bass who took the L today I think in the past 7 or 8 days every Twin reliever has pitched bewteen 3 and 5 times. Slowley has not allowed alot of hits but 5 hrs in those 3 starts(16hits in 16.1 inn). Last year Slowley allowed a 329 BAA on the road and .324 BAA when pitching every 5th day . Past 2 years 20Hrs allowed in 80.1innings . This year Slowley has allowed the 1st 9 batters just an 0.93 ERA which ballons to nearly 10 ERA the 2nd time around and slightily above 10 the 3rd time.

Galarraga is impressive in the sense he hasnt pitched many home games and DET has lost just 1 one of his 6 starts. Winning @ Zona , @ Tor and @ Cle losing @ Minny 11-1 despite allowing just 2 earned in 6 innings. Only team to hit him hard was Boston at home which DET won 10-9 to avoid a sweep at home. Somewhat concened with the fact he threw 111 pitches his high (never broke 90 previously) but he also skipped a turn which could be why his command suffered walking 5 in 6 + but allowing just 1 hit(2nd time this year). Twins short up the middle have lost Everett , Punto and Tolbert recently calling up youngster Macri. Casilla should play 2nd and he was a300 hitter in the minors and had a few solid games vs Texas but remains around 220 for his short career. His notes say suspect defense and lack of pop have held him back but he did well vs Texas 5-15 1hr 6 rbi (only 7hrs in the minors 1500abs). Galarraga will stay in the rotation even with Willis back so I hope he doesnt pitch looking over his shoulder. He has allowed a 167 BAA which is 143 on grass 12 hits in 24 innings ! RHB only 109 and LHB 226 which is key with the M&M boys of Minnesota. He was -120 @ minny facing Livan which was clearly off but he did his best to keep it a game. So expected about -170 here on the open which is exactly what we got. With DET streaking I might lay some crazy chalk.....Twins just 4-11 L15 away and as I said some payback for that sweep in Minny here...with game 3 having Twins throw a young LH vs verlander I think they have a good chance of winning the series so that may be a play as well.....although the price might be to hefty to make it worthwhile....

Other thoughts :
Neither ATL or Zona has done much offensively of late vs LHSP. Braves just swept NYM but they face Davis in his cancer return. Thinking possible under but prefer ATL...plus ATL could struggle facing Unit , Owings and Webb after this ...

Suppan as road chalk I dont like especially since Perez has been real solid especially in WASH and they had a day off. Gagne is not available making a bad pen worse and Perez allowed 7 runs 23.2 innings at home so far. Nats are 3-1 SU and 4-0 Under when he starts at home and Milw is 3-3 with SUppan away who has also struggled mostly in his night starts...since winning the first 3 vs LHSP away they have lost 3 of 4...

Think Backe and Houston have some value. Phiily is trending to win games 1s and lose game 2s 13-4 and 5-11 so far ....people will probably dismiss consistentefforts from Backe including a solid one in Texas because he got shelled @ Philly. Eaton has lasted more then 5 innings just once in past 5 or 6 turns and has been serviceable in his past outongs vs Houston including 6 inn 3 runs this year .

Tough one @ Coors as both teams coming off chokes but Met plane ride has to be hell this evening. Reynolds has been solid so far and Perez is really turning teh corner past few outings . Scare point is when Perez pitched @ Coors 3 times he was AWFUL but the other 2 starts he was excellent. So I think its more baout how he was pitching then Colorado itself. COl struggling recently vs LHSP lost hen Sanchez started and then when Misch started didnt do much. Have to think Under 10 here and with COL 5-11 in game 1s if they become something near -120 might have to take NY since they do have some quality LHB which could cause Reynolds trouble. Remember Beltran nd Delgado did at least HR Thursday

Reds now 2-8 away vs LHP simply arent hitting. Volzquez has been great at 7-2 and if I were to lay money with Reds it would be here where Volzquez has been bettter then Harnag so far and Estes despite his 2 efforts isnt as good as Wolf. Just tough tolay road chalk with reds ...maybe under ?

Lowe seems to be in a funk and since his World Series win vs them hasnt done very well vs them losing 4 of 5 starts. I like getting an ace like Wainright here as a dog although he did get roughed up vs TB. maybe the extra days rest does him well but have to look into that

Carmona really in a groove right now and while Gabbard has been solid his inability to go deep into games could cost texas as there pen is struggling and worked alot in Minny...Love Cle this series with Carmona , Lee and CC vs Gabbard , Feldman and the youngster Mathis who was shelled @ Minny.....

Thinking Under 8.5 @ Yankee Stadium...Bedard has been real solid @ Yankee Stadium and vs NYY in general since 06 . While Pettitte had some bad luck vs NYM and has pitched fairly well in 2 of 3 .....Last 13 times Sea played @ NY starting in 06 they scored 2 ,4 Ponson started , 3 ,15 Kei Igawa sighting , 1 , 0 , 3 , 7 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 1 ,2 . Yanks won 9 of 13 twice losing 3-2 and some so-so names SP Ponson, Rasner (2) , DeSalvo , Hughes , etc....Under 14-5 L19 meetings and even @ Safeco they Ms score 2,2,3..
Also Seattle just 2-10 last 12 away winning in extras @ texas in sweep game and winning vs Carmona @ Cle when the scored was tied to start the 9th and Ms scored 5 times ! Yanks L9 games scored 2 or 1 run in 7 of them and 4 in another....

Jays continue to struggle with the bats and Grienke has pitchedjust as well as Halladay probably better. Although Greinke has been roughed up a bit last 2 despite decent outings and wins. KC off the sweep @ boston while Tor avoided one vs LAA. Thinking that jays have only a slightly better then50% chance of winning here making +150ish interesting especially since LH have given him some trouble 259 all 5hrs allowed while Grienke better at night and Halladay in the day....if the total sees 7 an over may be in order because Halladay and Grienke have basically been 3 run guy slately ...

Wsox are streaking , Floyd is pitching well especially at home , and they face another LHP to which they are something like 10-4 verse so far . Saunders has been solid as could be especially at night but wonder how Tor to Chi works out and seems like an under LAA didnt hit much @ Toronto......

Interesting game in Oak as harden looked real good before he was hurt and @ ATL he looked real sharp again. Boston is on fire but did have to fly out West after a day game today while Oak was home with a day off. Wake has been okay so far but thrid time Bos seeing Oak so far they couldnt solve him....Wake gettiing 4 runs or less of supports is
0-3 this yr
5-12 last year
2-11 in 2006

7-26 last 3 years when Boston scores 4 or less .....worse he is 3-18 away when he gets 4 runs or less and two of those wins came indoors where he excels the lone start Boston won was 4-1 @ Balt in 2006 vs Rodrigo Lopez.....

:cheers:
 
BetCrimes probably has some DATA on this but for the most part SUMMER is here and the past 3 days have produced alot of OFFENSE which to me signals the END of this crazy UNDER run ....so look to play overs and be careful of unders.....
 
True Blue, Joe Saunders has been battling the flu, he was supposed to start Thursday but was pushed Friday. Just the info.

Gavin Floyd at home (21.2 IP) .101 BAA.
Righties hit him at a .158 clip only.

They welcomed back Chone Figgins to the lineup (11 stolen bases if I recall), and put Erick Aybar on the DL. Not sure what to think, he is their leadoff man but do they need a game or two to readjust, to oil up the machine? In a road/road switch.

White Sox on a roll, home and stay at home.

You are right about Jo-Jo Reyes not being the guy to trust. Look at this.

http://www.macon.com/163/story/355053.html
ATLANTA --
Jo-Jo Reyes, fighting a blister on his left index finger and an overall case of the blahs, felt miserable before managing to pitch out of a bases-loaded jam with no outs in the second inning.

"That pumped me up a little bit," Reyes said after he and four Atlanta relievers played a successful game of damage control, leading the Braves to a 5-2 win over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday.

The A's had at least one baserunner in every inning, but they left runners stranded at third base in the second, sixth, seventh and eighth. The A's were 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position, leaving them 4-for-40 in their final six games of a nine-game road trip.
Click to expand...

Now, was it his pitching that got him out of it or A's inability to get the clutch hits, which was evident throughout the trip?

He is also fighting blisters. Also, look at this.

Reyes sports a 2.77 home ERA after 2 starts (13.5 IP) but hasn't gone deep in either of them and allows .327 BAA.

On the flip side, Arizona is on a serious decline.

The Snakes opened the season sitting at 18-7, faced a lot of NL opposition, but are 10-12 since, 5-7 last 12 and 1-4 last 5.

In their last 5 games they have scored 3, 4, 3, 3 and 4 runs.

Doug Davis is coming off the DL. Not sure what to think there. Over is out of the question IMO. I can only ride this hot Braves streak or lay off the game. since I won't back Reyes, I'm sure a lot of backers will (I did take Atlanta last night against Johan, maybe a letdown following the Mets series as well?)...

it's likely a no play for me.

Galarraga has pitched well, Detroit off 3 wins (against Seattle though, my Mariners are rock bottom of the AL, nice huh), Slowey is far from 2007 edition, Minnesota 7-12 on the road. The price shows it though.

Tigers (limited AB) are 7 for 18 off Slowey, .389. May not be as important, but he has been letting in runs consistently. 3 ER in each of his starts, lasting 3.1 innings, 5.0, 5.2 (twice).

Odalis Perez has a steady hand at home, so looking at Washington here as home dogs.

His numbers are much better at home compared to his road starts where he has been tagged for 11 hits in both of his last 2 road starts.

At home, he has kept bats in check, sports 2.66 ERA, 23.2 IP, .209 BAA.

Oddly enough, the Brewers can't hit him.

12 for 65, .185 BA.


Yankees with Pettitte at home, Andy has been shelled so far at home (5.01 ERA, 3 losses, .297 BAA), Mets, CLE, DET, TB

All teams better than SEA right now.

SEA is 35 for 115 off him though, .304 BA.

Ichiro 10 for 23 (.435)
Ibanez 5 for 12 (.417)

Bedard 2008.
1-1, 6.00 road ERA.

Yankees only 46 for 202 (.228) off him.


What to do? Skip.

Anyways, I'm sure you guys have more in depth stuff, these are just some notes as I started capping the card.


GL today.
 
adding:

Ryan Church got in to pinch hit last night, keep an eye on him (whether he is in or out of the lineup), he suffered a mild concussion 2 days earlier.

Alou still out.

Mets have taken the lead in games 1, 3 and 4 in Atlanta and lost all of them. Just a thought.
 
Since the start of interleague play, Unders have come out on top in 1 day out of 7 in AL rules games.

Prior to IL play, Unders had come out on top in 14 of the previous 21 days (+ 3 ties = only for 4 days did Overs come out on top).

The totals worm is definitely starting to turn, those stat corrections towards more overall balanced numbers should be on their way.
 
Yanks under 8.5 - two anemic offenses, two good SP's. Also like Sea.

OAK - give me Harden all day at -121, don't care if it's against the Red Sox. Wakefield will get hit around a little tonight.

STL - pure gut. I'll take Wainwright. Lowe is a gas can this year.

ATL RL - gonna ride the 20-5 home record. Reyes has pitched well at home.
 
Zambrano makes a habit of letting the pirates hit him, his #'s vs pirates aren't to good.

Atlanta has been $$ at home & a fade on the road.

I have 4 games with leans to the UNDERS but need to see the umps, the games are CINCCI/SD , KC/TOR, BALT/NYY , & LAA/CWS.
 
The over in Atlanta fading Doug Davis coming back looks pretty good to me, also like the value on Volquez pitching in SD in NL.

Bedard, Garza, and Wakefield in the AL look tasty
 
Good stuff fellas . Havent really dug any deeper just sort of peaked in to see where the lines had moved.....interested in what you guys see though....:cheers:
 
Think Floyd and Chi are one of my plays though. LAA basically took 2 of 3 because Tor while they hit better in the series didnt get key hits. LAA won with 5 hits then 4 hits and lost by 1 run getting 7 hits . Part of the key was only 16 hits but 7 XHBs . Looking at the 1st series LAA won when CHI started LHPs and lost when they started RHP. So all year LAA 21-19 vs RHP and 7-2 vs LHP. Where WSox have won 10 of 14 when a LH starts(16-16 vs RHP). Of course winners of 8 straight and seemingly being overlooked. I mean most of actually saw and foolishy I might add value in Cle with Laffey last evening when he was favored. Sure if the line was -150 maybe I see the value but why would we lay -110 on the road with a young SP who hadnt made any road starts vs a CLE team struggling to hit losers of 5 straight?? Just seems like a smiliar scenario here . LAA has managed to win but they havent hit l10 games shows 10 runs twice but the others 4 or less ...4 runs (2x) 3runs (4x) and 2 and 1 run games...Last 8 games seven times as a team they were below 250 and 3 below 200.....last 8 games just twice topped 600OPS barely 620 ish otherwise 575 or below...WSox 7-2-1(tie 3-3 vs Balt)Last 10 at home spanning the past 3 series since NYY left town Balt , Minny and Cle all struggling offenses...enter another struggling offense...LAA....Sox 6-1 UND when facing a LHSP and 4-3 compared to 6-1 away...losses were 2-1 to Greg Smith , loss 5-1 to Burres and lost 2-5 to DTrain who started and didnt last batters due to injury and Lopez came in to squash a rally . Wsox have some dead weight in there lineup as most guys hovering around 200 but Juan Uribe was doing next to nothing . Since Alexei Ramirez took over for him at 2nd base the youngster is 7-22 ( two doubles and a HR)and Sox have won all 6... 3 regulars AJ , Quentin and Dye around 300 with Crede at 275 the other half is hanging around 200....Thome , Konerko , Swisher , Cabrera some real solid vets with good resumes ...Ramirez also near 200 but as I said last 6 games 7-22 since becoming a starter....Sox pen hasnt pitchd much but Linebrink and Jenks have been used often of late but been dominant 8.2 inn 0 runs 0 bb 10 Ks but the plus is they had a decent amount of rest so far pitching in 21 and 22 of the 46 games...which is around pace for 75 appearances but beware Linebrink has pitched 3 straight days now aftre 2 days off but ridiculous pitch counts 10, 5 and 9 in fact he hast thrown more then 15 since 5/8 when he tossed 23 in 1 inning...10 pitches or less in 7 of 9 appearnces...Last week 7 games for LAA they have just 2 players above 240 Garrett and Kotchman with Vlad at 190 but 2 big Hrs the other day in Toronto......Figgins has returned with Aybar on teh DL now I believe. Jenks is ine availablity wise and he to is keeping the pitch counts way down 4-28 last 20 + pitch inning. lst 9 appearances 10 or less pitches 7 times with 16 as the high so these guys havent labored. SP matchup seems even but Saunders did skip Thursday as he was battlin the flu. On 6 days rest he had had some issues last year high BAA that didnt hurt his ERA and this year 12 bbs to 8 Ks compared to 3bbs and 13Ks in the same 4 starts and longer outings on normal rest 29 to 24 innings with 3 road starts coming at 6 or less since opening day @ Minny...

Little sidepoint is CHI is good at making pitches labor by working counts so if his command slips abit with the extra day that could also be a negative for Saunders here on top of the flu and the Sox 10-4 record vs LHP which actually does not carry a hefty AVG or runs scored ....
 
Floyd on weeks rest always a little concerning butthink all his starts where 6 or 7 days rest . Which he allowed 7 hits in 21 + innings and some of that could have ben due to pitching in the heavy rain vs NYY and at night 153 baa 17 hits in 32 innings ! Saunders also great night and road splits....
 
Playing Texas for a unit. Carmona 0-2 at home to Texas. Texas 6-4 last 10 on the road to Cleveland 7-3 at home. Texas with 75 runs last 10 to Cleveland 23. Texas at Cleveland 5-5 last 10. Gabbard 6-4 last 10 away to Carmona 7-3 at home. Texas 19-14 at night to Cleveland 16-15. Texas 13-7 last 20 to Cleveland 10-10. Current form --.
 
i agree nut.. after looking at the condition of saunders, i'd think that his stuff is off a little bit. The travel from Toronto to Chitown is also concerning or the team. Figgins is a good boost in the angels offense though.. I think saunders is going to pitch a nice 1-3 er game or just get lit up and leave in the 4th. I'd have to lean to the sox who are in some what of an offensive rhythm.
 
Just curious if anyone uses Sports Insights and would mind cutting and pasting the main screen. Gave up my subscription after using it for awhile curious to see if it was influencing my decisions. Anyway if someone could post it great ...

That Cle vs texas game is tough. My best feel is that Carmona past 2 season on 6 days rest (1 start this yr shutout vs KC) 42.1 inn (6 starts) 33hits 13 runs / er 17bb 30 K... Gabbard struggles vs RHB 298 BAA and 13 bbs to 9 ks in 27.2 innings...He allows a 250 BAA against first look and only 2 runs scored off him in inning #3 so fat this year ( so just 2 runs all season allowed in innings 1 to 3) but what happens is the adjustments 2nd and 3rd time through .318 and then 290...Cle had 8 runs in 10 + innings in 2 starts at the jake...hate laying price with slumping lineup but might do it with an under...:cheers:
 
tuck321 said:
Playing Texas for a unit. Carmona 0-2 at home to Texas. Texas 6-4 last 10 on the road to Cleveland 7-3 at home. Texas with 75 runs last 10 to Cleveland 23. Texas at Cleveland 5-5 last 10. Gabbard 6-4 last 10 away to Carmona 7-3 at home. Texas 19-14 at night to Cleveland 16-15. Texas 13-7 last 20 to Cleveland 10-10. Current form --.
Click to expand...


Great start for Texas ...On cle -160 but at least passed on the under ...3 runs for Cle is a weeks worth...:cheers:
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Since the start of interleague play, Unders have come out on top in 1 day out of 7 in AL rules games.

Prior to IL play, Unders had come out on top in 14 of the previous 21 days (+ 3 ties = only for 4 days did Overs come out on top).

The totals worm is definitely starting to turn, those stat corrections towards more overall balanced numbers should be on their way.
Click to expand...


Pass the word the OVERS are coming !!!!!:cheers:
 
Floyd fucked up...

Los Angeles - Top of 5th SCORE
Gavin Floyd pitching for Chicago LAA CHW
G Anderson struck out swinging. 0 0
T Hunter homered to left center. 1 0
C Kotchman fouled out to first. 1 0
M Napoli walked. 1 0
R Quinlan singled to left, M Napoli to second. 1 0
S Rodriguez walked, M Napoli to third, R Quinlan to second. 1 0
M Izturis hit by pitch, M Napoli scored, R Quinlan to third, S Rodriguez to second. 2 0
G Matthews hit by pitch, R Quinlan scored, S Rodriguez to third, M Izturis to second. 3 0
V Guerrero grounded into fielder's choice to third, G Matthews out at second. 3 0

game over.
 
Killed myself with that Chi game just dont understand how I get so sloppy and wind up so unbalanced ...so havy on WSox and nearly nothing out of Houston ML...
 
M Izturis hit by pitch, M Napoli scored, R Quinlan to third, S Rodriguez to second. 2 0
G Matthews hit by pitch, R Quinlan scored, S Rodriguez to third, M Izturis to second. 3 0
Click to expand...


Can't say I've ever seen consecutive batters HBPs for runs.
 
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