Beaver Blitz Friday (6-22-07)

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
as much as I find it scary following some of these value plays, I gotta stick with it til' it's time not to...



All-Out Blitz ( 24 - 19 ) ( 55.8% ) +4.7 units

Line Value ( 5 - 4 ) ( 55.5% ) +1.4 units


ATS ( 20 - 19 ) ( 51.2 ) -3.4 units

Totals ( 4 - 0 ) ( 100% ) +8.1 units




tonight:

connecticut.gif
Connecticut +9.5 @ Indiana


( 1.5 units )

The Connecticut Sun have not been looking good at all. They have lots of talent and they have all been doing well putting up points, but they have also found ways to lose. They are 3-3 on the road this season, but none of their 3 losses were by more than 4 pts... one even went into overtime. So there's no doubt that Connecticut has the ability to stay close in this one and maybe even try for an upset (as funny as that may sound), but what worries me is the ability Indiana has to dominate at home. So I'll take the value as small and play it for a unit and a half... on the sun.




washington.gif
Washington +2.5 @ Houston


( 3.5 units )

So Houston won it's first game... who gives a crap. The way I see it, Tina Thompson has been averaging about 19 pts a game and that hasn't helped them at all. Snow had a 20+ game against the Sparks, but the Sparks are really looking downhill right now. The Mystic, on the other hand, are looking up at things. They are coming off a big win against the Mercury scoring over 100 pts... that should be motivation enough to come into Houston and beat a team with REAL problems.




that's it for now... I'm leaning Seattle and NY right now as non-value plays, but I'm starting to learn not to play those non-value plays anymore and I have also been burned too many times betting on Seattle and against SA... so they'll probably end up no plays anyway...


may be back with a couple of the other value plays... depending on how things look...



gl to everyone tonight.
 
screw it.. gonna go ahead and throw in another value play...


Detroit @ Phoenix +4
phoenix.gif


( 2 units )

This will be Detroits' 3rd straight road game with the fourth straight coming next game against Sacramento. Phoenix is coming off a game where they scored 100+ pts and still lost to a crap Washington team. I hate going against Detroit, but it seems I'm doing it once again. I'm hoping Phoenix is a little more prepared against Detroit than they were against Washington.
 
going to throw a total out that caught my eye for my last play...



sacramento.gif
Sacramento @ Los Angeles OVER 139
losangeles.gif


( 2.5 units )


Both of these teams had a bad offensive outing in their last games. Sacramento scored 54 against Chicago and LA scored 64 against Houston. They can both be solid teams on defense, but the last time these two teams met earlier this season in Sacramento, it was an 88-85 game. I know Holdsclaw is no longer with the team, but she only had 16 pts in that game. Mabika and Spencer both had more than she did. This may not be another 88-85 game, but I do see this one going over 140.



that's it... that's enough for today.

:shake:
 
that's it for now... I'm leaning Seattle and NY right now as non-value plays, but I'm starting to learn not to play those non-value plays anymore and I have also been burned too many times betting on Seattle and against SA... so they'll probably end up no plays anyway...

GL tonight. I was leaning the same way with NY, but I don't want to mess with Becky Hammon's return to the Garden. She was everything to that team for years. I'm sure the fans will give her a nice welcome back and she'll have a big game. The over may be the right call with that one.
 
not sure about phoenix if Pondexter is out again. they beat detroit twice last year thanks to some unreal games by Pondexter, she scored 27 in the first and 35 in the second game. not sure if they can get it done without her and even if she goes she will obviously not be 100%. prolly lay off that one myself...... gl with your card Blitz
 
yup.. 3-1, but unfortunately I lost the big one again...




updated:


All-Out Blitz ( 27 - 20 ) ( 57.4% ) +6.6 units

Line Value ( 7 - 5 ) ( 58.33% ) +1.05 units

ATS ( 22 - 20 ) ( 52.3 ) -3.75 units


Totals ( 5 - 0 ) ( 100% ) +10.35 units
 
I got no value off the spreads today... still looking at totals...

I was ready to jump on the total for Detroit going Under since they scored over 80 yesterday as did Sacramento... I'm sure this one will be sloppy, but at a 138 line, I think I may pass... well see..

I also think Detroit should be up for this one after they struggled the entire game against Phoenix.. Sacramento should be in depression mode after losing to LA, but not sure if I will play it... My gut was leaning to NY and SEA yesterday and I'm sure glad I did not play those... lol.. I don't want to make the same mistake here....


here is my calculated lines for today...


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=12 width=516 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>My Line

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>Actual

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>San Antonio

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>2

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>1.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>No Value

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>Connecticut

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>-2

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>-1.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>( .5 pt )

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>Washington

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>6.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>5.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>No Value

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>Chicago

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>-6.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>-5.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>( 1 pt )

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>Detroit

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>1.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>2.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>No Value

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>Sacramento

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>-1.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>-2.5

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="25%" height=0>( 1 pt )

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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