NFL Preseason Week 3 Parlay for Saturday's Games
Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans
Saturday, August 28, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville
Forgetting Last Week
One difference between betting on football and betting on other sports like baseball involves form.
When players play every day -- like they do more or less in baseball -- then form is a very valid factor to consider.
But in football, players basically have six days to recuperate, recover, and prepare. With about six days in between games, things easily look very different.
This important difference between sports is easily and unfortunately forgotten by bettors.
Let's take last week's performance for Chicago as an example.
As the score suggests, the Bears played abysmally as they lost 41-15 at home to Buffalo.
Reports from Bear beat writers and others who cover this game tend to act as though Week 2 defined the 2021 Bears up to now and indicated how they would look in Week 3.
We need to step back and take a broader perspective, though.
Changing Effort
Effort is a strong variable especially in preseason play.
That 41-15 loss to Buffalo was not a product of having inferior ability, but of not having enough effort.
Bear defenders were missing tackles, often not being physical enough to wrap up opposing players. They weren't trying hard enough and weren't motivated enough to play well.
In the preseason, professional pride is still a thing. Players and coaches were vociferously displeased with the results of that game.
After being embarrassed -- largely by a former Bear quarterback, no less, Bear players will be angry for this game and will seek a result like Week 1, when they beat Miami 20-13.
This is also being treated as a tune-up for the first week of the regular season. So the idea in this game is to bounce back and develop positive momentum for the regular season.
Cornerbacks
The biggest change for Chicago this week will be apparent on defense where Chicago allowed 41 points last week.
It's worth noting two things regarding the battle in the air: Tennessee won't have threatening enough weapons while Chicago boasts a solid level of depth and quality in its cornerback group.
For the Titans, Julio Jones is dealing with an undisclosed issue that is keeping his work at practice very light.
Meanwhile, AJ Brown is dealing with a knee injury. Surgery on both knees kept him out for much of training camp. On Monday, he was merely present at practice.
Both players are, of course, focused on getting ready for Week 1.
In a week where teams are wanting to have their starters tune up for the regular season, it seems unlikely that we'll see Julio or Brown at all against the Bears.
When healthy, either player could certainly expose a Bear secondary that is not so heavy at the top because it misses the departed Kyle Fuller.
Without having to deal with stars Julio or Brown, Chicago's secondary will look very strong throughout.
Notable Bear cornerbacks include Jaylon Johnson, who was one of the NFL's top rookies last year as he amassed 15 passes defended.
In this preseason, he had an important interception against Tua in Week 1.
In addition to Johnson, there's proven long-time veteran Desmond Trufant.
Kindle Vildor, moreover, benefitted from some unexpected experience at the end of last season. He has been right there with Trufant competition-wise.
Tennessee's Pass Defense
Expect Tennessee to replicate what the Bear pass defense will achieve.
Through two games, the Titans have amazingly allowed a total of 211 passing yards.
I find it hard to imagine how the Bears could change the fortunes of Tennessee's pass defense.
It's been announced that rookie quarterback Justin Fields -- who will not be the Bears' starting quarterback in Week 1 -- will start the game for Chicago and play the first half.
Reportedly, it's likely that he won't have Darnell Mooney to throw to. Moreover, veteran star Allen Robinson may not see the field at all.
Robinson's public comments attest to the lack of significance that he finds in playing in the preseason.
He's been recently dealing with a hamstring issue that should provide more than enough motivation for Nagy to hold him out of Saturday's game.
After all, he is an extremely high-volume pass-catcher for Chicago. The Bears will need him healthy throughout the course of the season.
Without Robinson, the Bear offense is in a lot of trouble because it depends so heavily on him, which is why Robinson is always a candidate to lead the NFL in targets.
In addition to concerns about Fields gaining professional experience and finding guys to throw to, there is the explicitly recognized concern of keeping him upright.
Both problems will get magnified by a Titan secondary that is thriving off of young talent and that, similar to Miami's cornerbacks in Week 1, is capable of making it very hard for Bear wide receivers to get open.
Most notably, former third-rounder, cornerback Elijah Molden led Tennessee in Week 2 with eight tackles, including two for a loss, a pass defended, and a sack.
Molden is proving to be what many people said he was after the NFL Draft: a steal.
Former first-rounder at the same position, Caleb Farley, finally saw action in Week 2 and will see more in Week 3.
The Verdict
A motivated and deep Bear secondary will, along with a successful Titan secondary and the absences or lack of health of all three top-level wide receivers, help keep this game low-scoring.
Given Tennessee's success until now and especially given Chicago's embarrassment last week, I find it reasonable to expect the Bears to feel like they have more to play for in this game.
While I am down on both pass attacks, Fields will be the best quarterback on the field today. He won't have to start playing from so far behind this week. Without this same pressure, he can come closer to his terrific Week 1 stat line (14 of 20, 142 yards and a touchdown).
Best Bet: Parlay Bears ML at -130 & Under 36.5 at -110 at +238 odds with BetOnline
Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans
Saturday, August 28, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville
Forgetting Last Week
One difference between betting on football and betting on other sports like baseball involves form.
When players play every day -- like they do more or less in baseball -- then form is a very valid factor to consider.
But in football, players basically have six days to recuperate, recover, and prepare. With about six days in between games, things easily look very different.
This important difference between sports is easily and unfortunately forgotten by bettors.
Let's take last week's performance for Chicago as an example.
As the score suggests, the Bears played abysmally as they lost 41-15 at home to Buffalo.
Reports from Bear beat writers and others who cover this game tend to act as though Week 2 defined the 2021 Bears up to now and indicated how they would look in Week 3.
We need to step back and take a broader perspective, though.
Changing Effort
Effort is a strong variable especially in preseason play.
That 41-15 loss to Buffalo was not a product of having inferior ability, but of not having enough effort.
Bear defenders were missing tackles, often not being physical enough to wrap up opposing players. They weren't trying hard enough and weren't motivated enough to play well.
In the preseason, professional pride is still a thing. Players and coaches were vociferously displeased with the results of that game.
After being embarrassed -- largely by a former Bear quarterback, no less, Bear players will be angry for this game and will seek a result like Week 1, when they beat Miami 20-13.
This is also being treated as a tune-up for the first week of the regular season. So the idea in this game is to bounce back and develop positive momentum for the regular season.
Cornerbacks
The biggest change for Chicago this week will be apparent on defense where Chicago allowed 41 points last week.
It's worth noting two things regarding the battle in the air: Tennessee won't have threatening enough weapons while Chicago boasts a solid level of depth and quality in its cornerback group.
For the Titans, Julio Jones is dealing with an undisclosed issue that is keeping his work at practice very light.
Meanwhile, AJ Brown is dealing with a knee injury. Surgery on both knees kept him out for much of training camp. On Monday, he was merely present at practice.
Both players are, of course, focused on getting ready for Week 1.
In a week where teams are wanting to have their starters tune up for the regular season, it seems unlikely that we'll see Julio or Brown at all against the Bears.
When healthy, either player could certainly expose a Bear secondary that is not so heavy at the top because it misses the departed Kyle Fuller.
Without having to deal with stars Julio or Brown, Chicago's secondary will look very strong throughout.
Notable Bear cornerbacks include Jaylon Johnson, who was one of the NFL's top rookies last year as he amassed 15 passes defended.
In this preseason, he had an important interception against Tua in Week 1.
In addition to Johnson, there's proven long-time veteran Desmond Trufant.
Kindle Vildor, moreover, benefitted from some unexpected experience at the end of last season. He has been right there with Trufant competition-wise.
Tennessee's Pass Defense
Expect Tennessee to replicate what the Bear pass defense will achieve.
Through two games, the Titans have amazingly allowed a total of 211 passing yards.
I find it hard to imagine how the Bears could change the fortunes of Tennessee's pass defense.
It's been announced that rookie quarterback Justin Fields -- who will not be the Bears' starting quarterback in Week 1 -- will start the game for Chicago and play the first half.
Reportedly, it's likely that he won't have Darnell Mooney to throw to. Moreover, veteran star Allen Robinson may not see the field at all.
Robinson's public comments attest to the lack of significance that he finds in playing in the preseason.
He's been recently dealing with a hamstring issue that should provide more than enough motivation for Nagy to hold him out of Saturday's game.
After all, he is an extremely high-volume pass-catcher for Chicago. The Bears will need him healthy throughout the course of the season.
Without Robinson, the Bear offense is in a lot of trouble because it depends so heavily on him, which is why Robinson is always a candidate to lead the NFL in targets.
In addition to concerns about Fields gaining professional experience and finding guys to throw to, there is the explicitly recognized concern of keeping him upright.
Both problems will get magnified by a Titan secondary that is thriving off of young talent and that, similar to Miami's cornerbacks in Week 1, is capable of making it very hard for Bear wide receivers to get open.
Most notably, former third-rounder, cornerback Elijah Molden led Tennessee in Week 2 with eight tackles, including two for a loss, a pass defended, and a sack.
Molden is proving to be what many people said he was after the NFL Draft: a steal.
Former first-rounder at the same position, Caleb Farley, finally saw action in Week 2 and will see more in Week 3.
The Verdict
A motivated and deep Bear secondary will, along with a successful Titan secondary and the absences or lack of health of all three top-level wide receivers, help keep this game low-scoring.
Given Tennessee's success until now and especially given Chicago's embarrassment last week, I find it reasonable to expect the Bears to feel like they have more to play for in this game.
While I am down on both pass attacks, Fields will be the best quarterback on the field today. He won't have to start playing from so far behind this week. Without this same pressure, he can come closer to his terrific Week 1 stat line (14 of 20, 142 yards and a touchdown).
Best Bet: Parlay Bears ML at -130 & Under 36.5 at -110 at +238 odds with BetOnline
