Last Chance Value Picks For Betting Bears vs. Rams
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, October 25, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Allen Robinson
Over/Under 72.5 Yards
Robinson’s Style
Measuring at 6-2 and 220 pounds, Bear wide receiver Allen Robinson is known for his physicality rather than his speed.
With a 4.56 40-yard dash, he’s not going to race past opposing cornerbacks. So, this year, he ranks 88th in average cushion and 96th in average target separation.
Instead, Robinson is going to use his size and strength in order to catch passes at the point of attack.
Jalen Ramsey’s Style
Los Angeles has the perfect antidote for Robinson. His name is Jalen Ramsey and he’s actually a former teammate in Jacksonville. He owes his rise to fame in part due to his success against Robinson in practice.
Ramsey compares to Robinson physically. The former is 6-1 and 209 pounds.
Moreover, Ramsey features characteristically long arms that help him rank in the 99th percentile in catch radius.
Plus, Ramsey has a significant speed advantage over Robinson. The former’s 40-yard dash is 1.5 seconds faster and he rates much higher in both burst and speed scores.
Ramsey’s Success
This physical completeness and these kinds of physical advantages help Ramsey achieve the following statistics: in 2020, he’s allowing a 53.6 percent completion rate and 78.9 opposing passer rating.
Four of the six wide receivers who formed the primary object of Ramsey’s coverage duties failed to accumulate more than 22 receiving yards when covered by Ramsey.
These four receivers include Stefon Diggs who’s the NFL’s fourth-leading wide receiver in terms of yardage.
Ramsey’s two worst performances came against Dallas’ Amari Cooper and San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel.
Cooper was Ramsey’s first match-up of the season. So maybe Ramsey was just off his game. But either way, Cooper possesses a mixture of size and speed that Robinson totally lacks.
Also, Samuel is a different kind of player. He will catch so many of his passes behind the line of scrimmage where he’ll make use of his ability to gain yards after the catch.
In his effort against Ramsey’s Rams, Samuel caught half of his passes behind the line of scrimmage.
The Verdict
Robinson will try to challenge Ramsey past the line of scrimmage and struggle with a usually dominant, physically superior, top-caliber cornerback.
This will be nothing new: when Robinson accrued only 15 yards against the Rams last year, he was mostly covered by Ramsey. When Ramsey covered him, Robinson caught zero passes on two targets.
Just in general, Ramsey has been on-fire since his season opener, allowing all of two yards per target. Robinson won’t change that.
Best Bet: Robinson Under 72.5 Yards (-114) at Bovada
Anthony Miller
Over/Under 28.5 Yards
Where Will Jalen Ramsey Line Up?
The Rams have been struggling defending the slot.
One opposing pass-catcher who illuminated the Rams’ weakness in this area is Buffalo’s Cole Beasley, who had his best game of the season against the Rams before facing the lowly Jets.
So as a result, Ramsey has been lining up in the slot more than ever before.
But when he lines up in the slot is very much a matter of reasoned choice.
He has lined up in the slot primarily against the Eagles, Washington, and 49ers.
The 49ers and Eagles rely on multiple tight ends in the passing game and feature them among their leading receivers.
In particular, San Francisco boasts arguably the best tight end in George Kittle. Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz leads his team in targets.
As for Washington, two of its top three pass-catchers are either a running back or tight end. So it was smart for Ramsey against this team, too, to stay in the slot and not on the perimeter.
But the Bears focus so overwhelmingly on Allen Robinson. He has 30 more targets than any other Chicago pass-catcher.
So the key to stopping Chicago is to stop Robinson. So Ramsey will focus on Robinson.
In The Slot
With Robinson primarily on the perimeter, Chicago will focus on Anthony Miller in the slot.
Miller will contend primarily with Troy Hill.
Hill has provided the primary impetus for L.A.’s worries about the slot especially when Hill allowed 175 receiving yards against Buffalo.
He is a weak link in L.A.’s secondary. He allows a 78.4 completion percentage and a 96.2 passer rating when targeted.Oddsmakers aren’t asking much from Miller — 28 yards is his average per game.
Miller, who plays in the slot for 84.4 percent of his snaps, will have a well above-average game for himself.
Best Bet: Miller Over 28.5 Yards (-106) at Bovada
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, October 25, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Allen Robinson
Over/Under 72.5 Yards
Robinson’s Style
Measuring at 6-2 and 220 pounds, Bear wide receiver Allen Robinson is known for his physicality rather than his speed.
With a 4.56 40-yard dash, he’s not going to race past opposing cornerbacks. So, this year, he ranks 88th in average cushion and 96th in average target separation.
Instead, Robinson is going to use his size and strength in order to catch passes at the point of attack.
Jalen Ramsey’s Style
Los Angeles has the perfect antidote for Robinson. His name is Jalen Ramsey and he’s actually a former teammate in Jacksonville. He owes his rise to fame in part due to his success against Robinson in practice.
Ramsey compares to Robinson physically. The former is 6-1 and 209 pounds.
Moreover, Ramsey features characteristically long arms that help him rank in the 99th percentile in catch radius.
Plus, Ramsey has a significant speed advantage over Robinson. The former’s 40-yard dash is 1.5 seconds faster and he rates much higher in both burst and speed scores.
Ramsey’s Success
This physical completeness and these kinds of physical advantages help Ramsey achieve the following statistics: in 2020, he’s allowing a 53.6 percent completion rate and 78.9 opposing passer rating.
Four of the six wide receivers who formed the primary object of Ramsey’s coverage duties failed to accumulate more than 22 receiving yards when covered by Ramsey.
These four receivers include Stefon Diggs who’s the NFL’s fourth-leading wide receiver in terms of yardage.
Ramsey’s two worst performances came against Dallas’ Amari Cooper and San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel.
Cooper was Ramsey’s first match-up of the season. So maybe Ramsey was just off his game. But either way, Cooper possesses a mixture of size and speed that Robinson totally lacks.
Also, Samuel is a different kind of player. He will catch so many of his passes behind the line of scrimmage where he’ll make use of his ability to gain yards after the catch.
In his effort against Ramsey’s Rams, Samuel caught half of his passes behind the line of scrimmage.
The Verdict
Robinson will try to challenge Ramsey past the line of scrimmage and struggle with a usually dominant, physically superior, top-caliber cornerback.
This will be nothing new: when Robinson accrued only 15 yards against the Rams last year, he was mostly covered by Ramsey. When Ramsey covered him, Robinson caught zero passes on two targets.
Just in general, Ramsey has been on-fire since his season opener, allowing all of two yards per target. Robinson won’t change that.
Best Bet: Robinson Under 72.5 Yards (-114) at Bovada
Anthony Miller
Over/Under 28.5 Yards
Where Will Jalen Ramsey Line Up?
The Rams have been struggling defending the slot.
One opposing pass-catcher who illuminated the Rams’ weakness in this area is Buffalo’s Cole Beasley, who had his best game of the season against the Rams before facing the lowly Jets.
So as a result, Ramsey has been lining up in the slot more than ever before.
But when he lines up in the slot is very much a matter of reasoned choice.
He has lined up in the slot primarily against the Eagles, Washington, and 49ers.
The 49ers and Eagles rely on multiple tight ends in the passing game and feature them among their leading receivers.
In particular, San Francisco boasts arguably the best tight end in George Kittle. Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz leads his team in targets.
As for Washington, two of its top three pass-catchers are either a running back or tight end. So it was smart for Ramsey against this team, too, to stay in the slot and not on the perimeter.
But the Bears focus so overwhelmingly on Allen Robinson. He has 30 more targets than any other Chicago pass-catcher.
So the key to stopping Chicago is to stop Robinson. So Ramsey will focus on Robinson.
In The Slot
With Robinson primarily on the perimeter, Chicago will focus on Anthony Miller in the slot.
Miller will contend primarily with Troy Hill.
Hill has provided the primary impetus for L.A.’s worries about the slot especially when Hill allowed 175 receiving yards against Buffalo.
He is a weak link in L.A.’s secondary. He allows a 78.4 completion percentage and a 96.2 passer rating when targeted.Oddsmakers aren’t asking much from Miller — 28 yards is his average per game.
Miller, who plays in the slot for 84.4 percent of his snaps, will have a well above-average game for himself.
Best Bet: Miller Over 28.5 Yards (-106) at Bovada
