BEARS-SAINTS- BEARS D Cant stop Division

[Sammy Meatballs]

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg id=nfl-team-schedule cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1><TD></TD><TD>at Indianapolis</TD><TD>W 29-13</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>NBC</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 2</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 14</TD><TD>at Carolina</TD><TD>L 17-20</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 3</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 21</TD><TD>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>L 24-27</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 4</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 28</TD><TD>Philadelphia</TD><TD>W 24-20</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>NBC</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 5</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 5</TD><TD>at Detroit</TD><TD>W 34-7</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 6</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 12</TD><TD>at Atlanta</TD><TD>L 20-22</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 7</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 19</TD><TD>Minnesota</TD><TD>W 48-41</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 8</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>bye</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 2</TD><TD>Detroit</TD><TD>W 27-23</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 9</TD><TD>Tennessee</TD><TD>L 14-21</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 11</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 16</TD><TD>at Green Bay</TD><TD>L 3-37</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 12</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 23</TD><TD>at St. Louis</TD><TD>W 27-3</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 13</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 30</TD><TD>at Minnesota</TD><TD>L 14-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>NBC</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 14</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 7</TD><TD>Jacksonville</TD><TD>W 23-10</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


I was looking over these stats and have watched Chicago play. I noticed one certain trend that could not be overlooked? Is the Chicago D really good ? How good are they?

What I found is that it is proven that they have allowed the most points in divisional games- Their Defense was really exposed and played their Worst 4 games of the year vs their own Division-

THeir most points given up on D were to 4 games in their Division--

41 Given up to Minnesotta
37 Given up to Green Bay
34 Given up to Minnesota
27 Given up to Tampa BAY
23 Given up to Detroit-

Then they gave up to non Division teams-

10 to Jags
3 to St Louis
13 to Indy
20 To carolina
20 to eagles
22 to Atlanta
21 to Tennesse


This is interesting to me and would suggest that perhaps teams that dont know Chicago dont know how to exploit their weakness vs the PASS???

The divisional games all the Qb's threw for a high number of completions vs the Bears--

Detroit threw for 28 completions vs them- is that even possible?
Tampa had 38 completions vs them-- Griese spread them out--
Aaron Rodgers had 23 nice completions vs them-
Frerotte had 25 completions vs them in Chicago--

The funny thing is they give up more completions at home games also-

It would seem reasonable to me that other teams dont adjust to the Bears weakness here and are not able to exploit them. Perhaps also they dont which linebackers cant cover and which formations the bears cannot stop ie 3 or 4 receiver set, dump off passes--

The key to New Orleans will be if they know the bear D well enough to exploit them right of the bat, they can beat the Bears easily.

Brees road splits are pretty average and he throws int's. He is also not the greatest outdoor cold weather QB- They played a few years back and bears beat them. However if they abandon the run all game pretty much and spread them out, I cannot see Bears having much energy to rush the QB in the 3rd and 4th qtr--

Then another factor is whether the weather will be good for spread attacks and the winds do not affect passing-

So it really depends on the Saints ability to exploit the Bears coverage and force their linebackers into covering Reggie Bush and Campbell and on receivers.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

This game sort of reminds of a situation a few years back where everyone thought Ohio State had the best Defense in the NATION before they played Florida-

After that game it was clear that ohio state D was only good cause it played in the BIG 10 and could not match the Gators speed and attack style.

The teams that the Bears have lost to so far have just spread them out and threw the ball many many times in the game. Running plays into their hands, they are BIG and STRONG but lack overall team speed in certain areas.

 

[CrimsonK]

Sammy,

Great thread. I was interested in getting involved with the saints TT OVER, which i was hoping for 21. I checked the greek and found something strange. The line is -3 and the total 45, so I was expecting a 21 Saints and 24 Bears TT's. They have Saints at 21.5 and Bears at 23.5, which falls in line with the 45, but indicates a 2 point spread. I know that Saints -3 is -115 but I'm a bit surprised seeing the TT's where they are. Am I looking too far into this or are they tipping their hand with these TT's?

 

[Tide High]

know what they opened the TTs at? possible they got hit hard on one of the other (saints over or Chi under)

 

[O-State]

I think Brian Greise put 450 up on these fools

 

[CrimsonK]

know what they opened the TTs at? possible they got hit hard on one of the other (saints over or Chi under)

No, I'm not sure on the openers but I would think that if one TT was being hit hard it may have some impact on the actual game spread/total would it not? I just can't remeber seeing anything like this, though I'm sure it may be more common than I think, I just miss it usually..

 

[Tide High]

yeah that was just a thought that popped into my head. i never play TT so i have no clue

 

[CrimsonK]

yeah that was just a thought that popped into my head. i never play TT so i have no clue

You certainly may be right, I'm not so sure either.. I just find it odd and it may be an additional angle to consider, may be nothing but I say "leave no stone un-turned"

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

A concern for me is that it seems road teams in these Thursday night and prime time tilts are just basically falling apart---

They appear to have no energy and just really dont show up on defense. It seems very hard to win a game at this point in the season on the road- Home teams are really kicking ass at this point in the season--

A lot is being talked out New Orleans but how about Chicago and Forte and Orton throwing on Orleans and scoring? You must factor that in also.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

New Orleans D is very weak on road--

Allowed the following totals points-- 29, 34, 30, 23, 34, 20

This is not a great unit, this concerns me with this team, their offense may be good but thier D is not good.

 

[O-State]

This might sound weird but I think the NO defense is underrated.

They held Turner under 100 both games this year. They stopped Peterson.

Rush D is underrated, pass D is the question in my opinion Sammy

What does CHI do, run the ball first.

@ TB the NO defense played well enough to win, they were very good. Bree's lost that game and he is a different qb on the road have to factor that in too.

The Saints are a streaky team and seem to be playing better as of late starting @ KC, then beat GB, should of beaten TB, and then beat ATL

------The Bears offense is not as good as the opponents New Orleans has been playing factor that in

I look at Bears schedule and it is MUCH weaker

I see Minney twice, DET twice, St. Louis, Jax

The divisions are night and day

CAR, TB, ATL are tuff

 

[SportsNut]

CAR, TB, ATL are tuff

Bears know they are 0-3 losing 3 close games earlier in the season to the above 3 before Orton was hurt and the defense decimated with injuries

 

[ISU74]

Nice work digging into the stats sammy! I think the big difference between New Orleans and the Carolina, TB, Minnesota games are the ability of play-action offense from those teams. Without much threat of a running game I dont see NO having the same success throwing the ball.

 

[3rd & Long]

Nice work digging into the stats sammy! I think the big difference between New Orleans and the Carolina, TB, Minnesota games are the ability of play-action offense from those teams. Without much threat of a running game I dont see NO having the same success throwing the ball.

How can you say the Saints have no threat of a running game?
Pierre Thomas has been outstanding, and even Bush was running it up the middle last week.

 

[ISU74]

How can you say the Saints have no threat of a running game?
Pierre Thomas has been outstanding, and even Bush was running it up the middle last week.

Saints rank 27th in the league in rushing and dont have great running numbers this year on the grass. I just dont see them running the ball effectevly enough to play action and get the home run. I think they will still pass and get yards but not in chunks which I think will lead to FG attempts more thanTDs.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

ISu 74 brilliant signature and so true, the man with experience will always take from the man with the money--

Call it the theory of TAKE FROM THE WILLING