NFL Week 17 Parlay at (+282) Features High-Scoring Lions and Playoff-Hopeful Packers
Parlay: Bears/Lions over 52 at -110 & Packers -3.5 at +100 at +282 odds with BetOnline
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit
Detroit's Defensive Weakness
I have written in previous articles about the positive turnaround of Detroit's defense.
But even while the Lion defense has improved, Detroit's defense has remained impotent in one respect that's highly relevant to Sunday's game against the Bears.
The Lions struggle to deal with opposing mobile quarterbacks.
Remembering the Buffalo Game
When they faced Buffalo, for example, Josh Allen ran for 78 yards, which was one of his highest rushing outputs in a game all season.
Allen's running does a lot to explain why those teams combined for 53 points.
An interception in the end zone, a Lion fumble, and a missed field goal explain why Buffalo and Detroit did not combine for even more points.
Remembering the Bear Game
One tremendous exception to Detroit's newfound tendency to allow fewer points in a game was the Bear game.
In that game, Bear quarterback Justin Fields amassed an absurd 147 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 13 carries.
Viewed as a runner, his performance against Detroit was his second-best performance of the season.
Largely as a result of his mobility, Chicago amassed 30 points in a game that saw a combined total of 61 points, a total which Buffalo and Detroit could have easily reached largely as a result of Josh Allen's running.
Last Week's Debacle
Detroit's defense gave up 37 points last week. What happened?
From the start of the game onwards, the Lion run defense was shredded.
Carolina amassed 320 rushing yards with two running backs easily exceeding 100 rushing yards.
Even slow-poke quarterback Sam Darnold ran for a touchdown.
The key was Detroit defenders' inability to disengage from blocks.
Panther ball-carriers enjoyed propitious running lanes that also made tackling more difficult for other likewise overwhelmed Lion defenders.
Upshot of Above Analysis
The Panther rush attack's magnificent success against Detroit bodes enormous promise for the Bears, who boast the NFL's top-ranked rush attack.
Chicago averages 179.7 rushing yards per game, which is 13.7 more than any other team.
The Bears will be able to rely on Fields and their ball-carriers.
Bear ball-carriers will be able to rely on their team's run-blockers, just as Panther ball-carriers did.
Chicago has some of the NFL's most successful run-blockers. According to ESPN, the team ranks fifth in team run block win rate.
Chicago Run Defense's Outlook
Since the departure of pass-rusher Robert Quinn, which was followed by that of linebacker Roquan Smith, Chicago's defense regularly allows scoring in the upper 20s and in the 30s and 40s.
Chicago has one of the NFL's most porous run defenses -- for example, Buffalo amassed 254 rushing yards in Chicago's last game.
For Detroit, physical bruiser Jamaal Williams and shiftier fellow running back D'Andre Swift will perform better than usual.
Missing Key Cornerback
But the key for Detroit will be Jared Goff, who has passed for over 300 yards in three of his last four games and whose high yardage outputs contribute significantly to Detroit's repeated ability to score more than 30 points.
Chicago will miss its top cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, to injury.
Detroit is deep at wide receiver, but its top wide receiver is easily Amon-Ra St. Brown, who ranks top-10 in both receptions and receiving yards.
He will have an easy time against the Bears' beleaguered cornerback group.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin
Explaining Green Bay's Week 1 loss
In Week 1, Green Bay lost to Minnesota 23-7.
Should we expect a similar result?
It is important to note that Green Bay was not able to run the ball as much as it wanted to, because the Vikings were able to build a significant lead, forcing the Packers to rely on their pass attack.
We have to ask: why did the Vikings manage to build a significant lead, and will they do so again?
Green Bay's Non-Plan for Justin Jefferson
Minnesota's Week 1 success was primarily predicated on the effectivity of Justin Jefferson, who amassed 184 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Green Bay's defensive struggles in Week 1 are easily fixable because they did not appear to have any sort of plan for Jefferson.
In each of Jefferson's 11 targets, the closest Packer defender was not top Packer cornerback Jaire Alexander.
In fact, a rookie linebacker and an edge-rusher spent more time covering Jefferson than Alexander.
Overall, Green Bay tried to play a lot of zone, which Minnesota's pass attack was able to utilize Jefferson to knife through.
Obvious Solution
Defensively, Green Bay will want to focus on having Alexander follow Jefferson more closely and more devotedly.
Most recently, Alexander was more devoted to limiting Dolphin wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and Eagle wide receiver AJ Brown.
Those are top-level receivers, as measured by their season-long production, and Alexander held Brown to 23 yards on six targets and Waddle to 37 yards on five targets.
After all, Alexander is a former All-Pro selection.
Cold-Weather Kirk
I also don't trust Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins in cold weather.
Because his team plays its home games in a dome, he has generally succeeded in dodging cold-weather games.
But his results in the cold-weather games that he has participated in have been negative.
Last year, he failed to pass for even 100 yards in Chicago in December.
In 2017, he threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions at the Giants in December.
It will be slightly above-freezing in Green Bay as it was in his game last year in Chicago.
More Dangerous Packer Pass Attack
Against a Viking defense marred by a lack of pass rush and soft coverage, Aaron Rodgers will pose much more of a threat than he did in Week 1.
Season-opening struggles have become characteristic for Rodgers.
But this is no season-opener.
He has acclimated to his wide receivers, especially connecting with Christian Watson, whose ascent has given Rodgers more weapons to throw to.
If Watson is healthy enough to play, he would give Rodgers a boost that is anyhow unnecessary against Minnesota's last-ranked pass defense.
Most recently, the Vikings allowed Giant quarterback Daniel Jones to have a rare 300-yard performance.
Packer Ground Game
Green Bay averaged 6.2 YPC in Week 1 against Minnesota but only ran it 18 times.
The Packers will be able to run more frequently. They'll utilize the physicality of bruiser AJ Dillon who will complement fellow running back Aaron Jones.
Green Bay's ability to run the ball opens up the play-action for Rodgers, which has been a strength for him compared to other play types.
Parlay: Bears/Lions over 52 at -110 & Packers -3.5 at +100 at +282 odds with BetOnline
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit
Detroit's Defensive Weakness
I have written in previous articles about the positive turnaround of Detroit's defense.
But even while the Lion defense has improved, Detroit's defense has remained impotent in one respect that's highly relevant to Sunday's game against the Bears.
The Lions struggle to deal with opposing mobile quarterbacks.
Remembering the Buffalo Game
When they faced Buffalo, for example, Josh Allen ran for 78 yards, which was one of his highest rushing outputs in a game all season.
Allen's running does a lot to explain why those teams combined for 53 points.
An interception in the end zone, a Lion fumble, and a missed field goal explain why Buffalo and Detroit did not combine for even more points.
Remembering the Bear Game
One tremendous exception to Detroit's newfound tendency to allow fewer points in a game was the Bear game.
In that game, Bear quarterback Justin Fields amassed an absurd 147 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 13 carries.
Viewed as a runner, his performance against Detroit was his second-best performance of the season.
Largely as a result of his mobility, Chicago amassed 30 points in a game that saw a combined total of 61 points, a total which Buffalo and Detroit could have easily reached largely as a result of Josh Allen's running.
Last Week's Debacle
Detroit's defense gave up 37 points last week. What happened?
From the start of the game onwards, the Lion run defense was shredded.
Carolina amassed 320 rushing yards with two running backs easily exceeding 100 rushing yards.
Even slow-poke quarterback Sam Darnold ran for a touchdown.
The key was Detroit defenders' inability to disengage from blocks.
Panther ball-carriers enjoyed propitious running lanes that also made tackling more difficult for other likewise overwhelmed Lion defenders.
Upshot of Above Analysis
The Panther rush attack's magnificent success against Detroit bodes enormous promise for the Bears, who boast the NFL's top-ranked rush attack.
Chicago averages 179.7 rushing yards per game, which is 13.7 more than any other team.
The Bears will be able to rely on Fields and their ball-carriers.
Bear ball-carriers will be able to rely on their team's run-blockers, just as Panther ball-carriers did.
Chicago has some of the NFL's most successful run-blockers. According to ESPN, the team ranks fifth in team run block win rate.
Chicago Run Defense's Outlook
Since the departure of pass-rusher Robert Quinn, which was followed by that of linebacker Roquan Smith, Chicago's defense regularly allows scoring in the upper 20s and in the 30s and 40s.
Chicago has one of the NFL's most porous run defenses -- for example, Buffalo amassed 254 rushing yards in Chicago's last game.
For Detroit, physical bruiser Jamaal Williams and shiftier fellow running back D'Andre Swift will perform better than usual.
Missing Key Cornerback
But the key for Detroit will be Jared Goff, who has passed for over 300 yards in three of his last four games and whose high yardage outputs contribute significantly to Detroit's repeated ability to score more than 30 points.
Chicago will miss its top cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, to injury.
Detroit is deep at wide receiver, but its top wide receiver is easily Amon-Ra St. Brown, who ranks top-10 in both receptions and receiving yards.
He will have an easy time against the Bears' beleaguered cornerback group.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin
Explaining Green Bay's Week 1 loss
In Week 1, Green Bay lost to Minnesota 23-7.
Should we expect a similar result?
It is important to note that Green Bay was not able to run the ball as much as it wanted to, because the Vikings were able to build a significant lead, forcing the Packers to rely on their pass attack.
We have to ask: why did the Vikings manage to build a significant lead, and will they do so again?
Green Bay's Non-Plan for Justin Jefferson
Minnesota's Week 1 success was primarily predicated on the effectivity of Justin Jefferson, who amassed 184 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Green Bay's defensive struggles in Week 1 are easily fixable because they did not appear to have any sort of plan for Jefferson.
In each of Jefferson's 11 targets, the closest Packer defender was not top Packer cornerback Jaire Alexander.
In fact, a rookie linebacker and an edge-rusher spent more time covering Jefferson than Alexander.
Overall, Green Bay tried to play a lot of zone, which Minnesota's pass attack was able to utilize Jefferson to knife through.
Obvious Solution
Defensively, Green Bay will want to focus on having Alexander follow Jefferson more closely and more devotedly.
Most recently, Alexander was more devoted to limiting Dolphin wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and Eagle wide receiver AJ Brown.
Those are top-level receivers, as measured by their season-long production, and Alexander held Brown to 23 yards on six targets and Waddle to 37 yards on five targets.
After all, Alexander is a former All-Pro selection.
Cold-Weather Kirk
I also don't trust Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins in cold weather.
Because his team plays its home games in a dome, he has generally succeeded in dodging cold-weather games.
But his results in the cold-weather games that he has participated in have been negative.
Last year, he failed to pass for even 100 yards in Chicago in December.
In 2017, he threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions at the Giants in December.
It will be slightly above-freezing in Green Bay as it was in his game last year in Chicago.
More Dangerous Packer Pass Attack
Against a Viking defense marred by a lack of pass rush and soft coverage, Aaron Rodgers will pose much more of a threat than he did in Week 1.
Season-opening struggles have become characteristic for Rodgers.
But this is no season-opener.
He has acclimated to his wide receivers, especially connecting with Christian Watson, whose ascent has given Rodgers more weapons to throw to.
If Watson is healthy enough to play, he would give Rodgers a boost that is anyhow unnecessary against Minnesota's last-ranked pass defense.
Most recently, the Vikings allowed Giant quarterback Daniel Jones to have a rare 300-yard performance.
Packer Ground Game
Green Bay averaged 6.2 YPC in Week 1 against Minnesota but only ran it 18 times.
The Packers will be able to run more frequently. They'll utilize the physicality of bruiser AJ Dillon who will complement fellow running back Aaron Jones.
Green Bay's ability to run the ball opens up the play-action for Rodgers, which has been a strength for him compared to other play types.
