BC
- Thread starter tuck321
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phoso1
Guest
I had the over last nite ....scared the shit out of me 1st 5.......I guess under 1st HALF and over the game.....JUST DO IT !!
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
tuck, seems to me Anaheim totals largely run in bunches.
Going backwards, from latest to furtherest away -
6-0 to Over
4-1 to Under
6-1 to Over
5-0 to Under
3-0 to Over
3-0 to Under
7-2 to Over
4-2 to Under....
They started the season -
11-3-1 to Under
7-1 to Over
12-3-1 to Under
7-2-1 to Over
....
and on and on...absolutely no alternating sequences at all, basically bunching (they've had just 2 limited sequences of alternating totals, and the majority of those results were Unders. When Overs predominate, they come thick & fast). Since thats the case here, my observation - without considering the real time game stats/facts - is if you're going to back an Angels Under, you ideally want to make sure they're not in *Over-block* mode, and the time to back an Over is when they are (with the adjoiner that their present Over run is, at 6 straight, their longest unbroken sequence of such results this season).
Thats how I approach all my total considerations - before looking at the specific player stats, I try and get a handle on a team's 'signature', and then find out where they are presently relative to that signature. Anaheims signature is basically to bunch.
Going backwards, from latest to furtherest away -
6-0 to Over
4-1 to Under
6-1 to Over
5-0 to Under
3-0 to Over
3-0 to Under
7-2 to Over
4-2 to Under....
They started the season -
11-3-1 to Under
7-1 to Over
12-3-1 to Under
7-2-1 to Over
....
and on and on...absolutely no alternating sequences at all, basically bunching (they've had just 2 limited sequences of alternating totals, and the majority of those results were Unders. When Overs predominate, they come thick & fast). Since thats the case here, my observation - without considering the real time game stats/facts - is if you're going to back an Angels Under, you ideally want to make sure they're not in *Over-block* mode, and the time to back an Over is when they are (with the adjoiner that their present Over run is, at 6 straight, their longest unbroken sequence of such results this season).
Thats how I approach all my total considerations - before looking at the specific player stats, I try and get a handle on a team's 'signature', and then find out where they are presently relative to that signature. Anaheims signature is basically to bunch.
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BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Pretty much. Obviously there's no guarantee of a repeat under tomorrow should one occur tonight, but from my POV whenever the Under occurs that breaks up their present Over run, the next Under to follow it shouldn't be long in coming, at all.
Trueblue
Pretty much a regular
Here's some info I pulled together for tomorrow. I kind of like the under BC, due to the trends and the historical under inclination head to head between these two teams..
Saunders
2.7 Day ERA
4.63 Home ERA 1.68 WHIP
1.53 WHIP versus Lefties versus sub 1 ERA Righties
5.4 ERA Career vs <st1:City><st1
lace>Oakland</st1lace></st1:City>, 3.65 on the year with 2 starts.
<o> </o>
<st1:City><st1lace>Toronto</st1lace></st1:City> plays the Halos abnormally well and considering it an outlier, Saunders has given up 2,1,3,4,2 in his last 5 starts. His last 5 game inflated home ERA could be due to his bout against hitting teams like <st1:City><st1lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> and <st1:City><st1lace>Boston</st1lace></st1:City>. His ERA has also been creeping up as the year goes along.
Blanton
4.56 Day ERA
5.27 Away ERA 1.36 WHIP
Career 3.69 Head to head with Halos, 3.44 on the year with 3 starts.
1.33 ERA versus Lefties Sub 1 ERA Righties
<o> </o>
After having a great June and a terrible July, Blanton’s ERA seems to coming down a little. Still can’t discount the road pitching woes.
Let me know what you guys think.
Saunders
2.7 Day ERA
4.63 Home ERA 1.68 WHIP
1.53 WHIP versus Lefties versus sub 1 ERA Righties
5.4 ERA Career vs <st1:City><st1
lace>Oakland</st1lace></st1:City>, 3.65 on the year with 2 starts.<o
> </o><st1:City><st1
lace>Toronto</st1lace></st1:City> plays the Halos abnormally well and considering it an outlier, Saunders has given up 2,1,3,4,2 in his last 5 starts. His last 5 game inflated home ERA could be due to his bout against hitting teams like <st1:City><st1lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> and <st1:City><st1lace>Boston</st1lace></st1:City>. His ERA has also been creeping up as the year goes along.Blanton
4.56 Day ERA
5.27 Away ERA 1.36 WHIP
Career 3.69 Head to head with Halos, 3.44 on the year with 3 starts.
1.33 ERA versus Lefties Sub 1 ERA Righties
<o
> </o>After having a great June and a terrible July, Blanton’s ERA seems to coming down a little. Still can’t discount the road pitching woes.
Let me know what you guys think.
Trueblue
Pretty much a regular
some other jumbled thoughts.
Speier will be rested for tomorrow. I dont expect Saunders to go more then 5 maybe 6. I saw him last week against Tex and he wasn't too shabby. As long as Shields doesn't fuck shit up, I like the Athletic's runs to be limited.
Oliver pitched 2 solid innings for about 25 pitches. I don't know how much they will use him if at all.
Angel's relief has been fairly sketchy after all-star break. Franky has blown 3 saves since with a higher then normal ERA.
My main worry is Fat Blanton. His last Angels stadium start, he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. A's relief hasn't been the sharpest lately either.
It's hot in LA. Fucking hot. The stadium should be in the mid to high 90's with no wind. technically, the ball should carry farther, but will it equate to more runs?
Speier will be rested for tomorrow. I dont expect Saunders to go more then 5 maybe 6. I saw him last week against Tex and he wasn't too shabby. As long as Shields doesn't fuck shit up, I like the Athletic's runs to be limited.
Oliver pitched 2 solid innings for about 25 pitches. I don't know how much they will use him if at all.
Angel's relief has been fairly sketchy after all-star break. Franky has blown 3 saves since with a higher then normal ERA.
My main worry is Fat Blanton. His last Angels stadium start, he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. A's relief hasn't been the sharpest lately either.
It's hot in LA. Fucking hot. The stadium should be in the mid to high 90's with no wind. technically, the ball should carry farther, but will it equate to more runs?
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
tuck,
the weather's been brutal out here. in this heat, with even a tad of humidity, the ball carries...for the dodgers or angels...kinda like it would in the normal (fair condition) day game here.
a good example was the HR nelson cruz hit a few days back. typically, that's warning track at best.
but the reason i'm answering is the weather's finally changing. today was jsut about as hot, regardless of what you read. however the temp's supposed to drop 10-12 degrees on wednesday...jsut in time for the kids to go back to school.
haven't looked at wednesday's matchup...but regardless of that, it looks like the weather's finally gonna get back to normal...i hope. and if that temp drop is accompanied by any moisture in the air at night (not rain, but moisture off the coast), then unders will come back into play.
the weather's been brutal out here. in this heat, with even a tad of humidity, the ball carries...for the dodgers or angels...kinda like it would in the normal (fair condition) day game here.
a good example was the HR nelson cruz hit a few days back. typically, that's warning track at best.
but the reason i'm answering is the weather's finally changing. today was jsut about as hot, regardless of what you read. however the temp's supposed to drop 10-12 degrees on wednesday...jsut in time for the kids to go back to school.
haven't looked at wednesday's matchup...but regardless of that, it looks like the weather's finally gonna get back to normal...i hope. and if that temp drop is accompanied by any moisture in the air at night (not rain, but moisture off the coast), then unders will come back into play.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
well what do you know - hope you cashed, tuck
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
True - the problem is each team has the opposite record bias for game 1s at a venue dependent situation. CLE is Unders, Angels Overs, and Cleveland managed most of that record when their bats were ice cold, which isnt the case anymore. My preconception is this series will be a 2 Under/1 over set.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
tuck, we're back to under weather in LA/Anaheim. temp's way down, and there's moisture in the air at night.
no clue what's going on tonight, as football's on my mind...but tribe/halos will play a lot of unders here, especially when it's not their 4th or 4th SPs on the mound.
anyways, the weather is definitely back to normal conditions here.
no clue what's going on tonight, as football's on my mind...but tribe/halos will play a lot of unders here, especially when it's not their 4th or 4th SPs on the mound.
anyways, the weather is definitely back to normal conditions here.
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