Baseball Season Thread...

[B.A.R.]

Hi, new to the forum. I would like to make a thread with some quick thoughts...

Here are my season wagers. I will be adding a few futures as the season progresses...

The outright futures were played January 11th and February 10th....


Philadelphia WS Champs +1800

Milwaukee WS Champs +2000

Baltimore Under 58.5 wins -130

Texas Under 71.5 wins -115

Nolan Arenado Over 35.5 HR's -115


As far as weighting them, Philly is slightly more than Milwaukee at this time. Both RSW's are risking the same amount. The Arenado play is 25% more risk than the RSW's...

Quick season thoughts...

The AL is a three horse race with one other sitting on the edge. I think this is the Yankees year to represent the league. Boston and Houston are quite good and anything can happen. I am hoping that the Yanks stumble a bit early to perhaps get a fair price on their future. The Indians are the 4th team here that I do not believe will challenge in the playoffs (sorry Tip, they are regular season paper champions at this point but you never know).

In the NL, I took the Philly position in hoping they would make that push in FA. The East is going to be a heck of a division as they battle the Braves and have Washington/New York right behind them. That will be the best division to watch all year. I am not big on thee Dodgers or Cardinals and even the Cubs. As always though, value may present itself in the middle of the season. I grabbed a great future on the Indians 2 years ago right before the win streak but alas, they faltered in the playoffs.

As far as the Tigers... yuck. Hopefully the young guys get some experience. They waited to long to trade Fulmer and now his value is nothing until he hopefully recovers fully from the surgery next year. We have one chip left basically with Nicky. They might as well...imo.

The RSW's have been covered enough on the forum. I have a bunch of other leans but I like these the most.

The HR prop is one I feel pretty good about. Obviously, we need good health here. In his 4 full season he has averaged 39.5 per season and he is durable (missed 16 total games the last 4 seasons). He batted near .400 with 5 in Spring Training so he is ready to go, methinks.

I may add a few plays this season to the thread... and an random Tigers notes I may stumble upon.

Good luck all!

 

[Vapster]

GL B.A.R. Though I Took BAL OVER 58.5 +105...
A Couple Rookies, Has Beens, And A Couple 'Never Will Be's...
They Don't Lose 100 This Year...
:bbq:

 

[Vapster]

"New To The Forum" My Ass! :biglaugh:

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah, I saw Vapito. You could well be right! We'll see...

 

[B.A.R.]

"New To The Forum" My Ass! :biglaugh:

Heh... Btw Modelo Especial...very nice.

 

[Vapster]

Thank You! Hellava Expensive At The Sharks Game! $12.50! But It Was My Girls Round...Haha!

 

[B.A.R.]

Brewers and Phillies starting strong.

The Orioles, LOL.

Texas has won a couple.

Arenado still without a HR but he had 3 hits Monday, hopefully that gets him going.

 

[2daBank]

Obviously this a bit reactionary (huge understatement) but balty might not be worse than jays! Clearly the prices this series suggest they are in fact much worse but that Toronto lineup is awful looking, the top of the order littered w guys who have never proven they can get on base at even a replacement level clip. Far as balty goes other than villar, Mancini, and that dumpster fire known as Chris Davis I don’t even know who the rest of them are! Lol.

 

[sirwinzalot]

Good luck this year. Definitely like rangers under season win total. They look to me to be pretty dreadful.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Arenado will break out now that he is out of dome and that great pitching staff. Rays closers throw the ball hard!

I never know who 3/4 of your avatars are but I always laugh

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck this year. Definitely like rangers under season win total. They look to me to be pretty dreadful.

Well, I hope so. I am glad to hear that from a seasoned pro of RSW's...

They are bashing the heck out of Anaheim right now...

Rangers 5-2 the first week #kooky

 

[B.A.R.]

Obviously this a bit reactionary (huge understatement) but balty might not be worse than jays! Clearly the prices this series suggest they are in fact much worse but that Toronto lineup is awful looking, the top of the order littered w guys who have never proven they can get on base at even a replacement level clip. Far as balty goes other than villar, Mancini, and that dumpster fire known as Chris Davis I don’t even know who the rest of them are! Lol.

Yeah, Baltimore isn't gonna be the 50 win dumpster fire many thought it looks like. I am definitely gonna need them with a few months of of single digit wins this summer to even have a chance.

 

[B.A.R.]

Then again, my Tigers are somehow 5-3 after Opening Day in the D. Weird....

 

[B.A.R.]

Arenado will break out now that he is out of dome and that great pitching staff. Rays closers throw the ball hard!

I never know who 3/4 of your avatars are but I always laugh

Yeah, he should. I am not too worried about that.

This current avatar is of PGA golfer Jason Dufner.

This is his picture when he was at Q school. It is freaking hilarious to look at.

It is amazing to me this guy was married to THIS

View attachment 38768

 

[sirwinzalot]

Hang in there on that rangers under. I believe it will cash.

 

[wvuscott]

Yeah, he should. I am not too worried about that.

This current avatar is of PGA golfer Jason Dufner.

This is his picture when he was at Q school. It is freaking hilarious to look at.

It is amazing to me this guy was married to THIS

View attachment 38768

And here he is visiting school children....lol

 

[B.A.R.]

Hang in there on that rangers under. I believe it will cash.

Patience is definitely a virtue.

They are falling apart right now.

:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

At the quarter season mark lets take a peak at how things are going....


Baltimore is who we thought they were. They are currently on pace for 53.46 wins. I would like to see that be around 50 at the next 40 mark to feel pretty good about it. The -79 run differential definitely is good news moving forward....

As said above, Texas is starting to fall apart a bit. They are still on pace for 72.9 wins but things look much better than they did a few weeks ago.

Milwaukee is 1.5 games behind of the Cubs in the Central (4 losses, have played 4 more games). It is hard to remember that Cubs 1-6 start, isn't it?

Philadelphia is leading the East by 2.5 games and they have an excellent differential of +34 right now. No one else in the division has a positive differential at this point.

Arenado started out so slow but has come back big-time. He is on pace for 42.43 homers right now. You got to like the fact that he usually heats up as season goes on as well.

So, so far so good. No additional futures at this point.

 

[B.A.R.]

Chicago Cubs WS Champs +1700

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Chicago Cubs WS Champs +1700

:angryoldman:

 

[Botanical]

SEMCON in full effect

 

[B.A.R.]

Philadelphia WS Champs +1800

Milwaukee WS Champs +2000

Baltimore Under 58.5 wins -130

Texas Under 71.5 wins -115

Nolan Arenado Over 35.5 HR's -115

Chicago Cubs WS Champs +1700

Well, we are at the all-star break so a good time to assess all of these. I'll go in order...

I figured the Phillies to make another move or two after Reamulto and Harper and they have not. They just an are an average team that may sneak in to a WC spot. They are not winning the division and will have to fight the Nats for the next few months pretty hard just to take 2nd in the division. Their differential has fallen off and that is a key stat imo...

The Brewers have a negative differential right now, which is not too promising. They give up a lot of runs, bottom line. They are definitely not a team I have any faith in for the rest of this year barring a major move.

The Cubs have had a topsy-turvey season, no doubt. They have a pretty darn good differential right now at +55. This will be my hope in the NL for now (shoot me, literally shoot me).

Texas RSW Under is toast. They are six games above .500 and certainly will not finish the season 22-49. I wrote this one off weeks ago. They are a good team and have a +24 as well. Bad bet.

Baltimore bet feels real good right now. They have a very tough schedule coming up and really the next relief isn't till Aug 19-21st when they face the Royals. I'll be shocked if this doesn't cash.

The Arenado bet is very frustrating right now. He had the rough start, got hot and lately has been cold again (wrt homeruns). He sits at 20 and is on pace for just over 36. The Rockies have lost 6 in a row going into the break as well. This one feels like it is going to come down to the wire. I think why I get mad is this is such a HR dream season and now it will be tooth and nail hoping he stays healthy and gets hot in 2h like usual. As long as this cashes with Baltimore, we're playing with house money with the futures.

I am waiting on numbers for two other futures. I may or not see them....we'll see...

Enjoy the AS-Break everyone.

 

[brewers888]

Your Milwaukee bet might as well be Baltimore to win it all. The Brewers season ended when they let Derek Johnson the best pitching coach in baseball leave over the offseason to take the pitching coach job in Cincy. Think I'm kidding look up the Brewers team ERA in 2018 and now this season and do the same with Cincy.

The NL Central is trash and you are throwing away money on a Chicago futures bet as well. Good luck the rest of the season and I hope your Brewers bet somehow cashes even if I can't see it happening.

 

[B.A.R.]

Your Milwaukee bet might as well be Baltimore to win it all. The Brewers season ended when they let Derek Johnson the best pitching coach in baseball leave over the offseason to take the pitching coach job in Cincy. Think I'm kidding look up the Brewers team ERA in 2018 and now this season and do the same with Cincy.

The NL Central is trash and you are throwing away money on a Chicago futures bet as well. Good luck the rest of the season and I hope your Brewers bet somehow cashes even if I can't see it happening.

Yeah, I feel ya. Trust me, I've noticed Cincy. I liked my Cubs bet when I made it and still think it's not dead. With than bring said, need Arenado more than anything to sneak out a profit if I don't touch any more futures.

 

[B.A.R.]

Arenado with a torrid two weeks (8 homers in last 15 days) has breathed life into that bet. Hopefully he can keep it going this week.

 

[B.A.R.]

The Rangers bet is still dead. The next 14 games will basically decide it with Angels and White Sox series. If they somehow pull of like a 5-9(doubtful) then maybe it has the slightest life but this fade started way too late.

 

[B.A.R.]

Orioles bet will be fine. I have an Astros future too I don't think I posted but otherwise hoping 2/3 prop bets then basically have no bad damage overall on the season... Baseball becoming like CFB as far as futures are concerned ... Not to that level but close

 

[B.A.R.]

Arenado with a torrid two weeks (8 homers in last 15 days) has breathed life into that bet. Hopefully he can keep it going this week.

And that bet cashed last night I guess. I see that after he got another tonight. Huge.

 

[B.A.R.]

I don't see Texas going 3-19 to finish so that's dead. Now, the Orioles can finish like 13-10 and beat me. It is very possible. They play the likes of the aforementioned Texas, Toronto, Seattle...4 with my Tigers and the only ones versus decent teams are 3 and 3 with the Doyers and BoSox. Boston is almost out of it so that's scary. This is gonna be tight. I really need to lose that Rangers bet on the sweep and hopefully the Dodgers grab all 3 games. I'm not confident with this. It looked like they would barely hit 50-52 as of mid July.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

B.A.R

I see my Rangers going 10-12 over the last 22 games, the kids will be playing & Gallo will play the last 12 games

 

[B.A.R.]

B.A.R

I see my Rangers going 10-12 over the last 22 games, the kids will be playing & Gallo will play the last 12 games

That seems about right. Hopefully they sweep the O's!

 

[brewers888]

Good thing for you that the Brewers are going to get hot and win the World Series.

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright, need a few more Orioles losses. Luckily my Tigers split with them this season.

 

[Inspekdah]

Snell’s first game back after almost 2 months? Vs a lefty lineup maybe he has success?

 

[tuck321]

Unsure but possible, Last year on 6+ about a ERA of .9. Unbeatable. This year horrible in 3 games. It would not surprise me to see him revert. Will look at the ump

 

[GWarner27]

Snell’s first game back after almost 2 months? Vs a lefty lineup maybe he has success?

only three L in the lineup tonight and two are very scary with the third being pretty decent as well

 

[B.A.R.]

Thank you Toronto the last few nights!

 

[PaintCrew]

Baltimore RSW unders are the gift that keeps on giving....nice hit B.A.R. I had U59.5 for as much as I could with the local and wanted more so hit Arizona -15.5 against the O's. Nice to have them freeroll the main futures again this year.

And go `Stros