Handicapping baseball is from a macro picture the same as any other handicap. The more information you have the better, but information is only historical and relying on data or stats alone imo will only get you so far. It is the interpretation and the analysis of the data that is the key. In any wager you are trying to forecast or project the future, whereas stats only assess what has occurred (past). So your job as a handicapper is to take that information and stats, but also use the eye test to try and project and predict what will occur.
Imo no one stat is a magic bullet, you have to take in all of the data and situational factors to arrive at a conclusion. It's part art/part science, part stats/intuition/situational driven.
Then you have to take all of that and figure out a price (whether it is moneyline price or totals or what have you).
I think the best way to handicap baseball is to look at the stats, but know the teams, how they are built, how the players perform. Then attempt to visualize or walk-through what you see happening in the contest based on your eye-test/profile of the teams and players, and based on the data in what has happened in the past knowing that the past is not a predictor of the future.
Given all of that in baseball all of the things to look for are:
Batter/hitter matchups
Current performances of teams and players
Weather (temp, wind, forecast of rain etc)
Groundball/flyball profile of starting pitchers
Strikeout/walk/hits type profile of starter - also how deep do they usually go in the game
Bullpens of teams and who is available and who is not for the game
Umpires (don't rely on this too heavily, but it certainly is a factor that can get you to your answer)
Travel situation for teams, importance of certain games of teams
projecting starting lineups ahead of time (I can tell you I know the Royals very well, so a lot of times I already know what the lineup will look like in advance of the lineup being announced, which can gain you line value)
Helps to build a profile of each team so you know strengths and weaknesses of each team and how they perform in certain situational situations (types of pitchers they struggle with or do well off of)
Pitcher splits (home/road day/night) etc.
Another thing is to look at start times, sometimes with start times there are factors like shadows which can impact totals or a side.
So many things to factor, again just have to think through everything involving each game see if you can arrive at a conclusion which will lead you to be convicted something will occur which is better than market odds.
I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting, but you have to take all of that into account and try to find something that stands out which is a distinguishing factor on how you see the game playing out. Sometimes the situational is so strong you throw everything out. Sometimes current performance of teams and players is so strong you throw the data out. Sometimes the data in a certain aspect is so strong you throw other things out. Sometimes there is a nugget of data that is so strong you run with it. Sometimes it is a combination of things. You have to take all of that and be convicted that something is of value or some factor is likely to play out which will result in a higher probability of said price.
