Baseball Betting Strategies and Philosophies

Thread starter GameHunter
Start date Apr 3, 2015

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#1

<style>  </style> [FONT=&quot]BASEBALL BETTING STRATEGIES AND PHILOSOPHIES:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball, but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting because the gaps between the best and worst teams are much closer than in any other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In the NFL this season, New England, Denver, Seattle and Dallas were all 12-4 (75%) while the worst teams were Tampa and Tennessee at 2-14 (12.5%).[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In the NBA this season, as of March 31st, Golden State is currently 60-13, winning 82.2% of their games while the worst team in the NBA is the New York Knicks at 14-60, winning 18.9% of the time. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In NCAA Basketball this season, Kentucky is a perfect 38-0 so far winning a 100% of its games. Meanwhile, San Jose State was 2-28, winning 6.7% of the time. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In NCAA Football, Ohio State finished 14-1 (93.3%) while Georgia State finished 1-11 (8.3%).[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Meanwhile, the 2014 baseball season was not that much different than any other baseball season. The Angels had the best record in the majors last season at 98-64 (60.5%) while the worst team in the majors was the Diamondbacks at 64-98 (39.5%). These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]While it seems like an obvious point, it is often overlooked that the worst team in baseball still wins at a percentage well in excess of the worst team in any sport. Taking it a step further, based on last season's numbers, the worst team in baseball won almost 2 out of 5 games, which means on average, they will still win at least one game every series. Let's face it, in NCAAB, if you put Kentucky up against San Jose State 100 times this season, Kentucky would probably win 100% of the time. In the NFL, if New England or Seattle played Tampa 10 times, they'd probably win at least 9. In the NBA, if the Warriors played the Knicks 100 times, they’d probably win close to 90% of the time. In college football, if Ohio State faced Georgia State 10 times, they would win all 10 games. It's nothing like that in baseball. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In 2014, the 70-92 Minnesota Twins won the season series over the 90-72 Detroit Tigers 10-9. The 71-91 Red Sox beat the 89-73 Royals 6 out of 7 times. The 73-89 Cubs swept the 96-66 Orioles in a three game series. The Tigers were 5-1 against the 96-66 Orioles but 1-5 against the 83-79 Bluejays. Anyone can beat anyone in baseball![/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#2

<style>  </style> [FONT=&quot]The point can also be further highlighted by looking at starting pitchers. Let say we’re back in March 2014 and I gave you the choice of Groups A or B below and told you that you had to bet one unit on each pitcher in each start for the 2014 season in the group you choose.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]GROUP A:[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jeff Samardzija[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Steven Strasburg[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Matt Cain[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]SonnyGray[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]David Price[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jake Peavy[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Clay Buchholz[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Francisco Liriano[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]GROUP B:[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Henderson Alvarez[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Phil Hughes[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Bud Norris[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Dallas Keuchel[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]TJ House[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jared Cosart[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Alfredo Simon[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jeremy Guthrie[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Almost all people before last season would’ve chosen Group A for sure. In fact, if I asked many people today (in March 2015) to choose Group A or B as the better investment last season (after the fact), I still think many people would choose Group A.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Let’s look at the results:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]GROUP A[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Team Record[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Profitability 1 unit/gm[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jeff Samardzija, 11-22, -17.1 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Steven Strasburg, 19-11, -6.4 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Matt Cain, 5-10, -6.0 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Sonny Gray, 18-15, -4.5 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]David Price, 20-15, -4.1 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jake Peavy, 14-22, -11.7 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Clay Buchholz, 11-17, -9.8 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Francisco Liriano, 14-15, -5.9 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Total 112-127 (46.9%) -65.5 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]GROUP B[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Team Record[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Profitability 1 unit/gm[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Henderson Alvarez, 20-10, +11.7 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Phil Hughes, 20-12, +11.5 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Bud Norris, 20-10, +11.4 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Dallas Keuchel, 17-12, +10.8 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]TJ House, 13-5, +9.6 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jared Cosart, 17-13, +9.3 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Alfredo Simon, 19-13, +8.7 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jeremy Guthrie, 21-14, +7.7 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Total 147-89 (62.3%) +80.7 units[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If you chose Group A, you cost yourself 146.2 units and at $100 per unit, you just lost $14,620. At $1,000 per unit, you may consider filing for bankruptcy after losing $146,200.[/FONT]

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#3

<style>  </style> [FONT=&quot]To put things into perspective, try and think about the potential biggest one game baseball mismatch for this upcoming season. How about the Diamondbacks with their 5[SUP]th[/SUP] starter at the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the mound? I make the line between -270 to -350 but for arguments sake, I will go with -350. How big of a mismatch is it really? We see some really big mismatches in other sports. In the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament, Kentucky was -35 against Hampton. I doubt there was a money line on it but it might have been close to -60,000. In CFB, Ohio State would be close to a 45 point favorite over say Georgia State, which would easily be -16,000 on the moneyline if you could find such a line. The Patriots would be approximately 17 point favorites at home against Tennessee which would give a moneyline around -2000. So is the biggest mismatch of the baseball season really that much of a mismatch when you compare it to other sports? On March 19, 2015, Georgia State upset Baylor in the NCAA Tournament as a 9.5 point dog. The moneyline was approximately -550. That victory by Georgia State was a greater upset (and really wasn’t that shocking) than any upset you will see in the major leagues this season. That should put things into perspective.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]To sum it up, too many baseball bettors shy away from dogs like they can't win when it is clear that any given underdog can beat any favorite on any given day at a rate unlike any other sport. Until people get comfortable in baseball playing underdogs on a regular basis and seeking out value, there is no chance to win betting baseball in the long run.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]WINNING PERCENTAGE IS NOT SO IMPORTANT IN BASEBALL HANDICAPPING.[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball and to me that just further explains to me that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. I would go so far as to say that if any average baseball handicapper had a gun to his head and was asked to hit 60% over the course of the season, he probably could. Simply, if a baseball bettor took every favorite of -200 or greater, he would probably hit 60%. The problem is even if you played all favorites with the average bet being a favorite of -200, at 60%, over the course of 100 plays at $100 each, you would lose $2,000. At an average of -200, a handicapper would need to hit 67% to even show a negligible profit. Don't forget, the best team in baseball last season only hit at a 60.5% clip. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Taken a step further, a handicapper playing an average of -150 could hit 60%, but at 60% (about equal to the best team in baseball) he would only breakeven. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Conversely, a handicapper playing an average of +110 would only need to hit at a rate of 47.7% to breakeven. So I ask you, who is the better baseball handicapper, the 60% capper playing an average of -150 or the 48% capper playing at an average of +110? Obviously, the answer is the 48% capper as he shows a profit while the 60% capper above breakeven. The point I am driving home is winning percentage in baseball is less significant than other factors. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]For those of you who followed me at previously, you are aware I play more games than almost any other handicapper. Lord knows there were countless haters who would state that I played too many games and couldn't be successful. I respect they are entitled to their opinion, but based upon my baseball model, in 2007, I won +0.12 units per game played, so my overall profit increased by an average of 0.12 units with each game I played. That is not to say I should bet every game, but based upon my handicapping techniques, the more games that fit my personal criteria, the more profitable I was. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I played 1,172 games in 2007 and finished with a record of 626-546 (53.4%) and made a profit of +140.86 units. Let's say this season I play 1000 games at an average of +110 (slightly higher than last year). Here is what I can expect if you assume that I flat bet every game at the same amount: [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Win % Unit Profit [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]47.7% Even [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]48% +8 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]49% +29 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]50% +50 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]51% +71 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]52% +92 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]53% +113 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]54% +134 units [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I won't use anything above a 54% winning percentage because it just won't happen. In 2007, I hit over 53.4% and as such, had an outstanding season. Even if I don't reach that standard, at 50%, I will still make a handsome profit. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#4

<style>  </style> [FONT=&amp]HANDICAPPING GAMES.[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]The key to handicapping baseball is searching for value in relation to the line. It’s very similar to a horse race. Let say I give you a racing form for a 10 horse race today at Belmont Park and the only thing I delete from the racing form is the odds of each horse. After evaluating all ten horses, you will have a perception in your mind of which horse you think has the best chance to win and you will probably be able to rate the horses in your mind from most likely to least likely to win the race. Let’s say you like the #1 horse the best, the #2 horse second best and the #3 horse third best. Does this mean you should bet the #1 horse? ABSOLUTELY NOT! You need to evaluate your perceptions in relation to the betting line. Now let’s fill in the final factor in my fictitious horse race. The odds on the #1 horse is even money, the odds on the #2 horse is 2-1 and the odds on the #3 horse is 20-1. Now there’s no doubt that the #1 horse is the most likely to win the race, however in this analysis, you would be a fool to not bet the #3 horse. Based upon these odds, the #1 horse would have to win this race one out of every two times for you to breakeven. The #2 horse would have to win the race one out of every three times for you to breakeven while the #3 horse would only need to win the race one out of 21 times for you to breakeven. In my example, if you believe the #3 horse is the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best horse in the race, then the horse you should bet on in this example is the #3 at 20-1 odds even though you feel the #1 is the most likely to win the race. [/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]Similarly, a bet in baseball should not necessarily be a bet on who you think will win, but rather who you think will outperform the odds and provides the best value. The most common error I see in many baseball bettors is they first choose who they think will win rather than evaluating the line. How often have we all heard someone say something along the lines of, “I love the Tigers tomorrow with Verlander and I am going to make a huge bet on them” before a line is even posted? What I am trying to state here is that there is no way to love any team until you know what the line is. [/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]Take for example opening full day with the Dodgers hosting the Padres. It will be Clayton Kershaw against James Shields. There is no way to say which team I like because I didn’t know the line. Depending on the line, I could INVEST in the Dodgers in certain circumstances or the Padres in others so it is clear my wager is not based upon who I think will necessarily win the game, but rather who based upon my handicapping, provides the best value. Said in a different way, I am shooting to determine which team I think linemakers and the general public are undervaluing based upon my techniques of handicapping. If the Dodgers open up at -140 in this game, I would play the Dodgers. If the Dodgers open up at -225, I would invest in the Padres. The line should determine whom you bet and not your opinion on a team with no consideration of the line.[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]When handicapping each game, I like to think to myself, if these two teams played 100 times under the same fact pattern, based upon my research, how many time (what %) do I think each team would win, particularly, how many time will the underdog win. Here are the win percentages that an underdog would need to win in order to breakeven at a particular underdog line: [/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]%Win Breakeven Line [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]50% Even [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]48% +109 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]46% +118 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]44% +127 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]42% +138 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]40% +150 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]38% +163 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]36% +178 [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]34% +194[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]32% +212 [/FONT]

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#5

<style>  </style> [FONT=&quot]I highlighted the 40% mark, because that is the line where a team in this situation would have to perform at the level of the worst team in major leagues over the course of the season. When I break down each game, if I feel a team will perform better than the line, then it is worth an investment. For example, if on opening day, I believe the Padres have better than a 1 in 3 chance of winning in my mind, if I can get reasonable value better than +200 (say, maybe +165 or higher) then I am buying. Set in non-arithmetic terms, if I think there are factors that linemakers and typical gamblers are not factoring into the line of a particular game that I think are relevant to one side, it will often mean I believe that team will outperform the line and I will invest in them. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I have read a lot of gibberish that write-ups are tripe and just ways a poster tries to convince a reader on why to play a certain side. I view it differently. When I write games up, the write-ups were basically the relevant statistics, which I saw as reasons why the side I was supporting was undervalued with respect to the line. It's not necessarily the reasons why one team will win the game, but analytical reasons why I believed the team I was betting provided better value than was seen by linemakers and the general public.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Here is an example of an old writeup:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]OAKLAND +106 (L) (1.75 UNITS) - Bazooka Joe Blanton has gone from my fade list to buy list in less than 3 weeks. He has really turned things around and in his last 5 starts tossing 34 innings and allowing 29 hits, 9 runs, 1 home run and a 25:3 K:BB ratio. Last outing against the Angels on the road was a gem as after allowing 2 first inning runs he followed with 7 scoreless innings. He had a lot of movement on his pitches and was hitting his spots. Meanwhile, Horacio Ramirez might be 8-5 this season but the numbers are not impressive. In his last 9 starts he has thrown 49 innings and allowed 69 hits, 42 runs, 8 home runs and had a 24:21 K:BB ratio. The Mariners have really begun to free fall and even after yesterday's football like 14-7 win, they are 2-13 in their last 15 games. Their bullpen, which has been their strong point most of the season, has abandoned them and we should see the pen early today. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Simply stated, in this game, the things I wrote about were reasons why at +106, the A's were a solid investment in my opinion. The information included factors which I thought were relevant but not the typical information which may have been factored into the line by linemakers or the betting public and why that day the A's provided value in comparison to the line. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I am not going to get deep into my baseball handicapping techniques because it really isn't an exact science for which there is a recipe. I rely heavily on SABERMETRICS, lefty-righty matchups, ballpark trends and configurations as they relate to individual pitching styles, current form of pitchers, base running and fielding attributes, bullpen use, pitcher-hitter matchups, weather, umpires, home/road trends, managing styles, ground ball, fly ball pitching and hitting trends, injury reports, hot and cold streaks and anything else I can get my hands on. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I have no set formula for my handicapping and each day I am not sure where my research and thoughts will lead me. I like looking deep into the numbers and for angles that I think give me a better advantage than the current line. I have certain mental notes that I want to look closely at as the season progresses and I have notes on just about every pitcher and angles to look for. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#6

<style>  </style> [FONT=&quot]Another thing I look to do is analyze the home plate umpires after the first game of a series (in the first game of the series they aren't announced until about 30 minutes before the game but after the first game, just look who the first base umpire was the day before, as he will be behind the plate the next day) and figure out their style and trends in relation to the starting pitchers trends. There are all kinds of umpire statistics readily available and many umpires will show generous strike zones or stingy strike zones. A stingy umpire matched with a pitcher with control issues or a pitcher that likes to nibble the corners can be a recipe for disaster while a generous umpire can be a recipe for success.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]My philosophy is similar to counting cards in blackjack. All you are looking to do is swing the percentages in your favor. A good card counter swings the advantage towards himself and instead of the house having a 51/49 or 52/48 advantage, the professional card counter swings the odds to somewhere around 52/48 in his favor. By doing so, the card counter wins thousands of dollars over time, however over the course of any one hand or group of hands, he can easily lose. That is exactly what I am trying to do in baseball. With that being said, I am not the guy to follow over a short period of time as that would be no different than following me over a few random hands of blackjack.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I incorporate countless other factors into my handicapping which would take hours and hours to try and explain and it might not even make total sense. Regardless of the factors you utilize as a handicapper, look for factors that are relevant to you which make you feel a team is being undervalued by the general public and linemakers. In your mind, never say, I love the Tigers tomorrow without knowing the line. If you love the Tigers that day, love them because you feel there are factors important to you that provide value in your investment in relation to the line and not just because you think the Tigers will win because if you are handicapping correctly, there is a price at which you could bet the other team When you look for value instead of just who will win, you will become a much better baseball handicapper.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The fact that I won the last five consecutive season previous to 2013 didn’t matter and in 2013, I actually showed a very small loss. Last season I bounced back with a solid regular season of 717-645, +49.39 units on an average play of 1.3 units per game. However, past results do not guarantee future results and I obviously will not automatically win every year or in particular, this year. Just like many of the most successful teams in professional sports, a good handicapper can have a down year. Inexplicably, my performance in Spring Training this season was not good to put it mildly but Spring Training is a completely different beast than regular season betting. Spring training is simply about looking for lineup advantages when teams sit regulars and doesn’t involve the normal factors of handicapping a regular season game. After great success in Spring Training the past few years, this spring was bad! I am confident coming into the season, but I also need to learn from my mistakes. Three years ago I was up over +80 units (averaging 1.5 units per game) at the All-Star break and ended up giving almost ¾’s of it back the second half the season. In previous years, I have struggled the first month or two and then came on strong as the season progressed. Last season I was on fire early but hit a cold streak in mid-May. Over the last 6 years, I have profited approximately +300 units. Baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management and constant analysis and research. Getting lazy and cutting corners does not work. I am not asking anyone to tail me but am just sharing my advice. I have no interest in hearing someone whine if they follow me and lose. I owe you nothing and I post for fun. When it isn’t fun anymore, I will stop posting. There are better handicappers out there but I have had quite a nice run myself over the past 6+ years on the internet and I am proud to post this at cappingthegame.com, as some of those great handicappers pop into this forum and I learn from them on a regular basis. I urge people to sign up for the free posting forum. I wish everyone the best of luck this upcoming season.[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

Hesnotmypres

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#7

Thanks very informative

Paulie The Vig

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#8

Good Read Game and much success this upcoming season.:cheers3:

S

Schrute

Assistant _ Regional Mod

Apr 3, 2015

#9

always a great read

VANGIO

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#10

Awesome read...GL this season

madshooter

Nascar Connoisseur

Apr 3, 2015

#11

awesome read, great info

Coolslaw1

Pretty much a regular

Apr 3, 2015

#12

Will be keeping an eye on bases this year as well. Thank you sir for your always welcomed insight.

T

tipyerbartender1

Guest

Apr 3, 2015

#13

Good stuff, GH. I especially liked how you worked TJ House in there.

Fondybadger

CTG Partner

Apr 3, 2015

#14

Very solid breakdown as always.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner

Staff member

Apr 3, 2015

#15

+1 to all posts

T

tipyerbartender1

Guest

Apr 3, 2015

#16

B.A.R. said:
+1 to all posts

Even the part about TJ House?

bloodhound

Sniffing out wins

Apr 3, 2015

#17

Thanks for posting GH

BOL on the season

:cheers:

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim

Apr 3, 2015

#18

Good work as always GH wish you the best on the upcoming season.

rome4

Pretty much a regular

Apr 5, 2015

#19

Thanks Game all the best this season.

Spartaneers

Pretty much a regular

Apr 5, 2015

#20

good stuff. GL

eggman

Pretty much a regular

Apr 5, 2015

#21

Great stuff, thanks for sharing.

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member

Apr 5, 2015

#22

Same concept I have. BOL.

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular

Apr 5, 2015

#23

:shake:

GL this season sir...

Engineer

Pretty much a regular

Apr 5, 2015

#24

thanks for posting. Best of luck to you

tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost

Apr 5, 2015

#25

No fair. Giving reasoning! The world may end soon. BOL

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