Baseball Betting Situations

[RambleOn]

<table style="width: 361pt; border-collapse: collapse;" x:str="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="481"><tbody><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl22" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; width: 48pt; height: 14.1pt; background-color: maroon;" height="18" width="64">

System 1​

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Home Favorite Pitcher under 4.00​

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</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">Bet ON Home Favorites if the pitcher has an ERA of less than 4.00</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">and has a differential of at least 2.00 lower than his opponent.</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl26" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">50-19 ATS until the all-star break</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">
</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl22" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; height: 14.1pt; background-color: maroon;" height="18">System 2</td><td class="xl23" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: black;">

Pitcher with ERA and WHIP of 2.00+​

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</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">Bet ON any Team with a pitcher that has an ERA and a WHIP that</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">are both more than 2.00 better than his opponent.</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl26" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">91-44 ATS until the all-star break</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">
</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">Note:</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">For above systems the pitchers must have at least 3 starts to </td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">qualify and the systems begin at the end of first 4 weeks</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">
</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl23" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; background-color: black;">

When both System 1 and System 2 agree​

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</td><td class="xl26" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">46-18 ATS</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">
</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl22" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; height: 14.1pt; background-color: maroon;" height="18">System 3</td><td class="xl23" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: black;">

Home Favorite if Lost Last 3​

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</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">Bet ON any Home team that is Favored if they lost their last 3</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">home games as a favorite. -110 or higher qualifies</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl26" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">29-10 ATS until the all-star break</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">
</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl22" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; height: 14.1pt; background-color: maroon;" height="18">System 4</td><td class="xl23" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: black;">

Totals After 3 Straight Losses​

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</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">Bet ON any Teams game TOTAL after 3 straight losses in the</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">opposite direction.</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl26" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">16-7 ATS game 1</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;"> 5-1 ATS game 2 until the all-star break</td></tr><tr style="height: 14.1pt;" height="18"><td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); height: 14.1pt; background-color: white;" height="18">
</td><td class="xl27" style="border: medium none rgb(224, 223, 227); background-color: white;">From Statfox Team Report for teams with totals of 57% or more</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[RambleOn]

Found these elsewhere, thought I would share....

 

[Blue_Chip]

that's a concise presentation... i wanted to post something similar, but the info is everywhere so it would be cluttered and difficult to follow

thx for this, ramble

 

[Blue_Chip]

systems 1 & 2 are hitting at 72% but it makes me wonder the actual +/-

if the stat line reads that way (2.00 diff b/w SP's), you have to figure the fave would carry a ridiculously high price

 

[RambleOn]

System 3 seems like a winner to me....going to look into playign that one. 75% is nothing to scoff at - and it would seem like you'd get a pretty decent price on a team that had lost their last 3 as a fave at home....

 

[Blue_Chip]

agree, system 3 looks like the fave would carry a smaller price tag and would also show that Vegas still thinks enough of the team to favor them

 

[RetroVK]

<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR title="Post 800792" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Blue_Chip</TD><TD class=alt2>agree, system 3 looks like the fave would carry a smaller price tag and would also show that Vegas still thinks enough of the team to favor them</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>Today 03:09 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 800788" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>RambleOn</TD><TD class=alt2>System 3 seems like a winner to me....going to look into playign that one. 75% is nothing to scoff at - and it would seem like you'd get a pretty decent price on a team that had lost their last 3 as a fave at home....</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

the three of us are thinking similarly. the first system and the second system have to hit at an incredible rate just to break even.

third system looks far more interesting.

 

[SteveMoneydog]

i kept track of system1 before and after the all-star break last year.

i noticed 3 very important things:
- don't play these games religiously! seriously, only tail it if odds are at least higher than -250 and don't try the rl instead
- don't play it during interleague. the interleague record is terrible
- be cautious if teams are on a losing streak or they play double-headers

until the all-star break the system went 46-13 for +18.5 units for me. after the allstar break: 45-20 +8.5 units.

you might notic that i have a different record, that's because i stood away from 22 games when the odds were terrible or teams were on losing streaks. 12 games after the all-star break and 10 before and i would have went 5-7 after and 4-6 before the all-star break.

the average odds of the games i played were not that bad. sometimes you even have to play homedogs.

i recommend to use this system to sort out games and don't play it religiously. use it in addition to your "traditional" capping.


hope that helps.

 

[Blue_Chip]

only tail it if odds are at least higher than -250

:new_shocked:

but +18 units pre all star break is good stuff

 

[SteveMoneydog]

:new_shocked:

but +18 units pre all star break is good stuff

i wouldn't overvalue the units the system made cause its only the record of one single season. i don't think the system will hit 73% every season. that's why i said it's a good way to sort out games or look for pitching advantages and value in odds.

 

[RetroVK]

dang it ... saw your post and assumed i would get a drbob writeup.

nice to see someone who fiddled with this last year. thanks steve.

 

[SteveMoneydog]

dang it ... saw your post and assumed i would get a drbob writeup.

nice to see someone who fiddled with this last year. thanks steve.

:tiphat:hey, no problem!

bol to everyone this season! :cheers:

 

[Preussen]

Those who fall too much in love with system 3 may want to consider that 39 games is not exactly a big sample size. I'm not saying the system isn't good (I have no way to judge this) but it will be interesting to see how it fares over a longer period of time.