How About Some Parlay Action on Baltimore-Boston on ESPN?
The Orioles conclude a three-game home series against Boston on Wednesday at 7:05 ET on ESPN. Big surprise: Boston will win. Let’s parlay that with an „under“ to increase our payout.
Red Sox at Orioles
Wednesday, 7:05 ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Parlay Boston ML & „Under“
Boston’s David Price (11-6, 4.17 ERA) is salivating over Wednesday’s opportunity to lower his ERA. He hasn’t finished the season with an ERA over 4.00 since 2009. Price’s key to a successful season is to perform better against the bad lineups to make up for how poor he is against strong lineups. On the one hand, Priice has conceded 12 runs in two starts (4.1 innings) to the mighty Yankees. On the other hand, Price is 3-0 in three starts against teams who rank in bottom five in slugging against lefties. In those three starts, Price allowed four runs in 20 innings. His best start was a complete game gem against Baltimore, which was nearly a shutout, but for a late two-run homer by current LA Dodger Manny Machado. B’more ranks fifth-to-last in slugging against lefties.
The aging southpaw began his career in 2008 with his fastball as his primary pitch. But over the years he’s lost some velocity, forcing him to make adjustments. This year, his four-seam fastball averages one fewer mile per hour than last year, likewise his sinker and change-up. He compensates for his reduced velocity by mixing his pitches more effectively. Price relies on four different pitches with at least 13% frequency, but not one with more than 34% frequency. His favorite is the sinker, which opponents bat .190 against and which he relies on most in all scenarios.
When pitchers want to be more effective against same-handed batters, they lower the vertical release point of their pitches. When his release points were at their lowest, in 2008 and 2013, Price couldn’t be touched by lefties. But he’s releasing his pitches from greater height in 2018, causing him to perform better against righties and lefties. This means that he matches up well with Baltimore’s righty-heavy lineup. Baltimore’s one meaningful lefty, Chris Davis, has a BA lower than some pitchers. Baltimore’s two leaders in BA, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo, are combined 24-for-109 (.220) against Price. National television hasn’t been kind to the O's. In three ESPN games, they've scored two combined runs.
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Dylan Bundy (6-9, 4.57 ERA) is the greatest hope to a Baltimore team missing its former best player, slugger Manny Machado. Bundy tends to do well against Boston, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00 in three of his four home starts dating to 2017 against Boston. He shut them out over seven or eight innings in two of those starts, including on June 11. Bundy has slumped through his past three starts. He has had two three-start stretches during which he’s surrendered at least three runs in each of those starts. He shut out his next opponent both times. Two of Boston’s three leaders in BA, Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, are, since 2017, 3-for-21 combined against Bundy in Baltimore.
Bundy relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 75% of his arsenal. He usually relies on his fastball in all scenarios, except with two strikes, where he features his slider. To improve the results of his four-seam fastball, he utilizes very similar horizontal and vertical release points between it and his sinker. The four-seamer possesses more vertical movement and less horizontal movement than his sinker. Because both pitches are distinct from each other, batters struggle to adjust their swing when they figure out which pitch approaches them.
Boston’s bullpen advantage will ensure victory. It ranks third in FIP while Baltimore’s ranks 11th-to-last. Overall, Boston has owned Baltimore, winning 10 out of 11 so far. Boston is the most profitable team, yielding +24 units. Baltimore is the least profitable team, yielding -40 units.
The Orioles conclude a three-game home series against Boston on Wednesday at 7:05 ET on ESPN. Big surprise: Boston will win. Let’s parlay that with an „under“ to increase our payout.
Red Sox at Orioles
Wednesday, 7:05 ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Parlay Boston ML & „Under“
Boston’s David Price (11-6, 4.17 ERA) is salivating over Wednesday’s opportunity to lower his ERA. He hasn’t finished the season with an ERA over 4.00 since 2009. Price’s key to a successful season is to perform better against the bad lineups to make up for how poor he is against strong lineups. On the one hand, Priice has conceded 12 runs in two starts (4.1 innings) to the mighty Yankees. On the other hand, Price is 3-0 in three starts against teams who rank in bottom five in slugging against lefties. In those three starts, Price allowed four runs in 20 innings. His best start was a complete game gem against Baltimore, which was nearly a shutout, but for a late two-run homer by current LA Dodger Manny Machado. B’more ranks fifth-to-last in slugging against lefties.
The aging southpaw began his career in 2008 with his fastball as his primary pitch. But over the years he’s lost some velocity, forcing him to make adjustments. This year, his four-seam fastball averages one fewer mile per hour than last year, likewise his sinker and change-up. He compensates for his reduced velocity by mixing his pitches more effectively. Price relies on four different pitches with at least 13% frequency, but not one with more than 34% frequency. His favorite is the sinker, which opponents bat .190 against and which he relies on most in all scenarios.
When pitchers want to be more effective against same-handed batters, they lower the vertical release point of their pitches. When his release points were at their lowest, in 2008 and 2013, Price couldn’t be touched by lefties. But he’s releasing his pitches from greater height in 2018, causing him to perform better against righties and lefties. This means that he matches up well with Baltimore’s righty-heavy lineup. Baltimore’s one meaningful lefty, Chris Davis, has a BA lower than some pitchers. Baltimore’s two leaders in BA, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo, are combined 24-for-109 (.220) against Price. National television hasn’t been kind to the O's. In three ESPN games, they've scored two combined runs.
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Dylan Bundy (6-9, 4.57 ERA) is the greatest hope to a Baltimore team missing its former best player, slugger Manny Machado. Bundy tends to do well against Boston, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00 in three of his four home starts dating to 2017 against Boston. He shut them out over seven or eight innings in two of those starts, including on June 11. Bundy has slumped through his past three starts. He has had two three-start stretches during which he’s surrendered at least three runs in each of those starts. He shut out his next opponent both times. Two of Boston’s three leaders in BA, Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, are, since 2017, 3-for-21 combined against Bundy in Baltimore.
Bundy relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 75% of his arsenal. He usually relies on his fastball in all scenarios, except with two strikes, where he features his slider. To improve the results of his four-seam fastball, he utilizes very similar horizontal and vertical release points between it and his sinker. The four-seamer possesses more vertical movement and less horizontal movement than his sinker. Because both pitches are distinct from each other, batters struggle to adjust their swing when they figure out which pitch approaches them.
Boston’s bullpen advantage will ensure victory. It ranks third in FIP while Baltimore’s ranks 11th-to-last. Overall, Boston has owned Baltimore, winning 10 out of 11 so far. Boston is the most profitable team, yielding +24 units. Baltimore is the least profitable team, yielding -40 units.
That's why I keep going to grad school and engaging in illegal activities with the undergrads lol
