Today's Plays Include a (+280) MLB Parlay
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Jordan Lyles
Baltimore starter Jordan Lyles brings a 4.05 ERA into tonight's contest.
This ERA may seem far from an impressive commentary on his season, but it is as high as it is primarily because of two bad starts against division rivals.
He allowed six earned runs in Yankee Stadium and, in his season opener and first start with his new team, five earned runs in Tampa Bay.
In his other starts -- against the Yankees (again), in Oakland, against Boston, and against Kansas City -- he allowed no more than two earned runs in as many as 7.1 innings.
His pitching repertoire shows nice variety. He does not throw a pitch as often as 30 percent of the time.
Lyles' pitches stand out primarily for their strong movement.
In particular, his slider has 6.7 more inches of horizontal movement than the average slider.
The elusiveness of this pitch, its higher spin rate, and its velocity differential relative to his fastball make it a strong whiff pitch.
Lyles vs. Tiger Batters
Primarily, Lyles throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and sinker.
His fastball is his favorite pitch overall -- he throws it with 29.3 percent frequency
But his slider is his favorite pitch for right-handed batters followed by his fastball and sinker.
Followed by his changeup, Lyles' fastball is his favorite pitch to throw to left-handed batters.
I like Lyles tonight because the Tigers rank 29thin slugging under .300 against his four favorite pitches from righties.
Detroit batters are ice-cold. In 12 May games, they scored more than three runs once. They were shut out three times and mostly scored two runs.
Team BA leader Austin Meadows is still crashing back to earth. His slugging rate in May is .222.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Oriole Batters
Eduardo Rodriguez gets a soft test after pitching at the Twins, at the Dodgers, and most recently at Houston.
I like Rodriguez tonight because he is a lefty and the Orioles rank dead-last in slugging .301 against lefties.
Given these struggles, the "under" is 11-1-1 in Baltimore games where its opposing starting pitcher is left-handed.
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Nick Pivetta
Boston starter Nick Pivetta has an awful ERA, but this ERA is deceptive because it is a season-long statistic.
His ERA indicates that he has pitched awfully at times this season, but it doesn't reflect his current form.
Right now, Pivetta enjoys strong form. In his most recent starts, he yielded a 0.82 FIP at Baltimore and a 0.96 ERA against the White Sox.
Pivetta's favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws just over half the time.
Opponents are batting .184 and slugging .265 against this pitch as they struggle, among other things, with its nice spin rate.
But Pivetta has developed a curveball, which, based on percentiles, has an excellently high spin rate.
Its spin makes it harder for opposing batters to track.
He can distribute this pitch throughout the different parts of the strike zone, although pitchers typically locate curveballs low.
Moreover, this pitch keeps hitters off balance in two ways.
One, he'll often pair a low curveball with a high fastball such that the batter changes his eye level in sequential pitches.
Two, this pitch averages about 16 fewer mph than his fastball, which means that batters will deal with radical shifts in pitch velocity.
Pivetta vs. Ranger Batters
I like Pivetta tonight because the Rangers rank dead-last, by far, in slugging .268 against the fastball, curveball, and slider from righties.
These three pitches make up almost 98 percent of Pivetta's arsenal, so Pivetta's success with them will be decisive tonight.
Dane Dunning vs. Red Sox Batters
Ranger starter Dane Dunning is coming off two great starts: he allowed one run in 7.2 innings against the Braves before allowing one earned run in six innings in Yankee Stadium.
Dunning primarily throws a sinker, slider, and changeup.
I like him to succeed tonight because the Red Sox rank 25thin slugging .301 against these three pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Tigers/Orioles Under 7.5 at -103 & Red Sox/Rangers Under 8 at -108 at +280 odds with Heritage
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Jordan Lyles
Baltimore starter Jordan Lyles brings a 4.05 ERA into tonight's contest.
This ERA may seem far from an impressive commentary on his season, but it is as high as it is primarily because of two bad starts against division rivals.
He allowed six earned runs in Yankee Stadium and, in his season opener and first start with his new team, five earned runs in Tampa Bay.
In his other starts -- against the Yankees (again), in Oakland, against Boston, and against Kansas City -- he allowed no more than two earned runs in as many as 7.1 innings.
His pitching repertoire shows nice variety. He does not throw a pitch as often as 30 percent of the time.
Lyles' pitches stand out primarily for their strong movement.
In particular, his slider has 6.7 more inches of horizontal movement than the average slider.
The elusiveness of this pitch, its higher spin rate, and its velocity differential relative to his fastball make it a strong whiff pitch.
Lyles vs. Tiger Batters
Primarily, Lyles throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and sinker.
His fastball is his favorite pitch overall -- he throws it with 29.3 percent frequency
But his slider is his favorite pitch for right-handed batters followed by his fastball and sinker.
Followed by his changeup, Lyles' fastball is his favorite pitch to throw to left-handed batters.
I like Lyles tonight because the Tigers rank 29thin slugging under .300 against his four favorite pitches from righties.
Detroit batters are ice-cold. In 12 May games, they scored more than three runs once. They were shut out three times and mostly scored two runs.
Team BA leader Austin Meadows is still crashing back to earth. His slugging rate in May is .222.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Oriole Batters
Eduardo Rodriguez gets a soft test after pitching at the Twins, at the Dodgers, and most recently at Houston.
I like Rodriguez tonight because he is a lefty and the Orioles rank dead-last in slugging .301 against lefties.
Given these struggles, the "under" is 11-1-1 in Baltimore games where its opposing starting pitcher is left-handed.
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Nick Pivetta
Boston starter Nick Pivetta has an awful ERA, but this ERA is deceptive because it is a season-long statistic.
His ERA indicates that he has pitched awfully at times this season, but it doesn't reflect his current form.
Right now, Pivetta enjoys strong form. In his most recent starts, he yielded a 0.82 FIP at Baltimore and a 0.96 ERA against the White Sox.
Pivetta's favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws just over half the time.
Opponents are batting .184 and slugging .265 against this pitch as they struggle, among other things, with its nice spin rate.
But Pivetta has developed a curveball, which, based on percentiles, has an excellently high spin rate.
Its spin makes it harder for opposing batters to track.
He can distribute this pitch throughout the different parts of the strike zone, although pitchers typically locate curveballs low.
Moreover, this pitch keeps hitters off balance in two ways.
One, he'll often pair a low curveball with a high fastball such that the batter changes his eye level in sequential pitches.
Two, this pitch averages about 16 fewer mph than his fastball, which means that batters will deal with radical shifts in pitch velocity.
Pivetta vs. Ranger Batters
I like Pivetta tonight because the Rangers rank dead-last, by far, in slugging .268 against the fastball, curveball, and slider from righties.
These three pitches make up almost 98 percent of Pivetta's arsenal, so Pivetta's success with them will be decisive tonight.
Dane Dunning vs. Red Sox Batters
Ranger starter Dane Dunning is coming off two great starts: he allowed one run in 7.2 innings against the Braves before allowing one earned run in six innings in Yankee Stadium.
Dunning primarily throws a sinker, slider, and changeup.
I like him to succeed tonight because the Red Sox rank 25thin slugging .301 against these three pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Tigers/Orioles Under 7.5 at -103 & Red Sox/Rangers Under 8 at -108 at +280 odds with Heritage
