Colorado Treads A Rockie Road With Struggling Pitcher Against Baltimore
Baltimore (15-36) at Colorado (23-26)
When: 9:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Orioles First-Half RL
Colorado's Kyle Freeland (2-5, 6.02 ERA) is not the same stud that he was last year. Nobody raised concern after his poor April because he also had a poor April last year. But, whereas his ERA was 2.56 last May, it is 8.20 in this May. As a result, the first-half ML is 3-6-1 in his starts. Bettors may look at the Orioles' record and may want to fade them. But that line of thinking would be ironic because Freeland's win percentage is even lower than Baltimore's and, nevertheless, the Rockies are heavily favored.
Freeland's big problem is to keep command and consistency on a pitch-to-pitch basis. He was so successful last year because he kept the ball on the ground, which is crucial in hitters-friendly Colorado, where batted balls more easily leave the yard. This year, though, he is allowing one more walk and 1.3 more homers per nine innings.
He is making more mistakes with his location. Last year, he left his pitches with 3.44% frequency down the heart of the plate. This year, that number is up to 5.04%. Last year, he also did a better job nailing the borders of the strike zone by throwing inside to righties and to lefties. Because he's leaving his pitches more often in more hittable parts of the zone, his ground ball percentage is down and batters are elevating his stuff more often.
Because of Freeland's mistakes, even teams that rank statistically towards the bottom against left-handed pitchers are succeeding against him. San Francisco, for example, ranks second-to-last in hitting southpaws, but has produced six earned runs in 10 innings (5.40 ERA) so far against Freeland. Baltimore ranks 19th in the category. In particular, watch out for Jonathan Villar, who is 2-for-3 with a walk against Freeland. Trey Mancini should look forward to facing Freeland for the first time. He's batting .346 and slugging .654 against lefties.
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Unlike Freeland, Baltimore's Andrew Cashner (4-2, 4.14 ERA) is a different pitcher for positive reasons. He's striking out 1.3 more batters per nine innings, while allowing fewer walks and the same rate of home runs. His ERA is down 1.15. As a result, he's Baltimore's most profitable starting pitcher. He's yielding +3.90 units overall and as an underdog and +3.33 on the road. Whereas Freeland is being overpriced, Cashner is incessantly being underpriced.
Cashner's major change has been to up his fastball usage by 18 percent from last year's fastball usage. His success with it is evident in its lower opposing BA and slugging rates. He improved its velocity, commands it better for a higher rate of strikes, and more often avoids the middle of the plate while painting the borders of the strike zone.
His slider and change-up will also be effective weapons in Denver. The former yields a .217 opposing BA, the latter .167. His slider carries minimal vertical movement, which makes it harder for the batter to track, and he places it with 59 percent frequency in the bottom-three spots in the strike zone.
His change-up throws hitters off-balance with its unusually high velocity differential relative to his fastball. It shows strong glove-side action and he concentrates its placement along the lowest border of the strike zone. Its solid movement and location combine to make it his favorite whiff-inducing pitch.
Baltimore (15-36) at Colorado (23-26)
When: 9:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Orioles First-Half RL
Colorado's Kyle Freeland (2-5, 6.02 ERA) is not the same stud that he was last year. Nobody raised concern after his poor April because he also had a poor April last year. But, whereas his ERA was 2.56 last May, it is 8.20 in this May. As a result, the first-half ML is 3-6-1 in his starts. Bettors may look at the Orioles' record and may want to fade them. But that line of thinking would be ironic because Freeland's win percentage is even lower than Baltimore's and, nevertheless, the Rockies are heavily favored.
Freeland's big problem is to keep command and consistency on a pitch-to-pitch basis. He was so successful last year because he kept the ball on the ground, which is crucial in hitters-friendly Colorado, where batted balls more easily leave the yard. This year, though, he is allowing one more walk and 1.3 more homers per nine innings.
He is making more mistakes with his location. Last year, he left his pitches with 3.44% frequency down the heart of the plate. This year, that number is up to 5.04%. Last year, he also did a better job nailing the borders of the strike zone by throwing inside to righties and to lefties. Because he's leaving his pitches more often in more hittable parts of the zone, his ground ball percentage is down and batters are elevating his stuff more often.
Because of Freeland's mistakes, even teams that rank statistically towards the bottom against left-handed pitchers are succeeding against him. San Francisco, for example, ranks second-to-last in hitting southpaws, but has produced six earned runs in 10 innings (5.40 ERA) so far against Freeland. Baltimore ranks 19th in the category. In particular, watch out for Jonathan Villar, who is 2-for-3 with a walk against Freeland. Trey Mancini should look forward to facing Freeland for the first time. He's batting .346 and slugging .654 against lefties.
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Unlike Freeland, Baltimore's Andrew Cashner (4-2, 4.14 ERA) is a different pitcher for positive reasons. He's striking out 1.3 more batters per nine innings, while allowing fewer walks and the same rate of home runs. His ERA is down 1.15. As a result, he's Baltimore's most profitable starting pitcher. He's yielding +3.90 units overall and as an underdog and +3.33 on the road. Whereas Freeland is being overpriced, Cashner is incessantly being underpriced.
Cashner's major change has been to up his fastball usage by 18 percent from last year's fastball usage. His success with it is evident in its lower opposing BA and slugging rates. He improved its velocity, commands it better for a higher rate of strikes, and more often avoids the middle of the plate while painting the borders of the strike zone.
His slider and change-up will also be effective weapons in Denver. The former yields a .217 opposing BA, the latter .167. His slider carries minimal vertical movement, which makes it harder for the batter to track, and he places it with 59 percent frequency in the bottom-three spots in the strike zone.
His change-up throws hitters off-balance with its unusually high velocity differential relative to his fastball. It shows strong glove-side action and he concentrates its placement along the lowest border of the strike zone. Its solid movement and location combine to make it his favorite whiff-inducing pitch.
