Ball State vs. Penn State College Football Week 2 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Ball State Cardinals vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
Evaluating Penn State's Situation
It might seem like an easy decision to fade Penn State on Saturday because the Nittany Lions seem to find themselves in a classic sandwich spot.
It is common for teams to lack motivation when preparing for and playing a low-profile team in between two games against higher-profile teams.
Coming off a big road win at fellow Big Ten competitor Wisconsin, Penn State, it may be said, will have a let-down and will not get up for Ball State, especially with another higher-profile team in Auburn on deck.
One may counter that this year's version of Auburn is not worth looking ahead to. History tells us, in any case, that the validity of this counter is irrelevant and that, in fact, the Nittany Lions are not positioned in a letdown spot, a sandwich spot, or a lookahead spot.
In 2019, for example, Penn State more than tripled the spread at Michigan State despite having played ranked Michigan and having ranked Minnesota on deck.
In 2018, the Nittany Lions crushed Illinois 63-24 even though highly ranked Ohio State was the next opponent.
Under James Franklin, there is no historical basis for fading Penn State in this "sandwich" situation.
Actually, this is a great spot for the Penn State offense. James Franklin is notorious for being a bully when his squad takes on low-level teams.
Under Franklin, Penn State loves to run up the score. In 2019, examples include 79-7 vs. Idaho and 59-0 vs. Maryland.
Despite having long sealed the win against Idaho, for example, Penn State's second-highest quarter was the fourth.
This prolific success against lower-profile teams extends to recent MAC squads. In 2019, the Nittany Lions crushed Buffalo 45-13. In 2018, they rocked Kent State 63-10 after running up the score against Pitt and before running up the score against Illinois.
My claim is that Ball State becomes Penn State's next MAC victim. Based on the history that I've outlined, it makes sense to either bet on Penn State or to bet the "over."
I contend that the situation rather calls for the "over."
Last week, in its win against Wisconsin, Penn State's defense was on the field for an absurd 42 minutes and 51 seconds. Wisconsin ran 96 plays on the PSU defense.
Especially since the Badgers are characteristically a physical Big Ten squad, that length of time and number of plays must cause some damage -- specifically to Nittany Lion defenders -- that is difficult to recover from.
Ball State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
I like the "over" also because Ball State's offense can do enough scoring to jeopardize Penn State's chances of covering the large spread.
The most obvious reason is two-time All-Mac first-teamer at wide receiver Justin Hall,
Hall is versatile because he's dangerous on the ground, for which reason he's well-reputed and experienced also as a running back and and as a kick returner.
He is quick and he'll use that quickness to turn short passes into big gains or to stretch the field vertically.
The primary deep threat on Ball State is actually Yo'Heinz Tyler, who steadily improves in every season while benefitting from the attention that defenses perforce devote to Hall.
These guys have a veteran in Drew Plitt throwing to them. Plitt will have plenty of time to throw behind his experienced, relatively large (by MAC standards) offensive line consisting in longstanding veterans.
This group contends with a Nittany Lion pass rush that sorely misses the injured Adisa Isaac after suffering significant turnover -- including last year's team sack leader Shaka Toney -- in its front seven in the offseason.
Penn State Has Passing Weapons, Too
Last week, Ball State allowed 367 passing yards to FCS school Western Illinois.
This performance would be easy to shrug off if it did not help confirm preexisting concerns surrounding the Cardinal secondary.
These concerns stem from the departure of former All-MAC cornerback Antonio Phillips.
Especially without him, the Cardinals lack the top-level ability in the secondary to contain speedster Jahan Dotson. They lack guys who can make plays or react quickly enough to the ball in the air.
Quarterback Sean Clifford had a huge second half against Wisconsin -- one that totaled over 200 passing yards -- largely because of his ability to find Dotson who repeatedly got behind the Badger secondary.
Quick scores are great for an "over" and, with the chemistry between Clifford and the deep threat Dotson, the PSU pass attack can accomplish plenty of these.
Best Bet: Over 55.5 at -108 with Heritage
Ball State Cardinals vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
Evaluating Penn State's Situation
It might seem like an easy decision to fade Penn State on Saturday because the Nittany Lions seem to find themselves in a classic sandwich spot.
It is common for teams to lack motivation when preparing for and playing a low-profile team in between two games against higher-profile teams.
Coming off a big road win at fellow Big Ten competitor Wisconsin, Penn State, it may be said, will have a let-down and will not get up for Ball State, especially with another higher-profile team in Auburn on deck.
One may counter that this year's version of Auburn is not worth looking ahead to. History tells us, in any case, that the validity of this counter is irrelevant and that, in fact, the Nittany Lions are not positioned in a letdown spot, a sandwich spot, or a lookahead spot.
In 2019, for example, Penn State more than tripled the spread at Michigan State despite having played ranked Michigan and having ranked Minnesota on deck.
In 2018, the Nittany Lions crushed Illinois 63-24 even though highly ranked Ohio State was the next opponent.
Under James Franklin, there is no historical basis for fading Penn State in this "sandwich" situation.
Actually, this is a great spot for the Penn State offense. James Franklin is notorious for being a bully when his squad takes on low-level teams.
Under Franklin, Penn State loves to run up the score. In 2019, examples include 79-7 vs. Idaho and 59-0 vs. Maryland.
Despite having long sealed the win against Idaho, for example, Penn State's second-highest quarter was the fourth.
This prolific success against lower-profile teams extends to recent MAC squads. In 2019, the Nittany Lions crushed Buffalo 45-13. In 2018, they rocked Kent State 63-10 after running up the score against Pitt and before running up the score against Illinois.
My claim is that Ball State becomes Penn State's next MAC victim. Based on the history that I've outlined, it makes sense to either bet on Penn State or to bet the "over."
I contend that the situation rather calls for the "over."
Last week, in its win against Wisconsin, Penn State's defense was on the field for an absurd 42 minutes and 51 seconds. Wisconsin ran 96 plays on the PSU defense.
Especially since the Badgers are characteristically a physical Big Ten squad, that length of time and number of plays must cause some damage -- specifically to Nittany Lion defenders -- that is difficult to recover from.
Ball State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
I like the "over" also because Ball State's offense can do enough scoring to jeopardize Penn State's chances of covering the large spread.
The most obvious reason is two-time All-Mac first-teamer at wide receiver Justin Hall,
Hall is versatile because he's dangerous on the ground, for which reason he's well-reputed and experienced also as a running back and and as a kick returner.
He is quick and he'll use that quickness to turn short passes into big gains or to stretch the field vertically.
The primary deep threat on Ball State is actually Yo'Heinz Tyler, who steadily improves in every season while benefitting from the attention that defenses perforce devote to Hall.
These guys have a veteran in Drew Plitt throwing to them. Plitt will have plenty of time to throw behind his experienced, relatively large (by MAC standards) offensive line consisting in longstanding veterans.
This group contends with a Nittany Lion pass rush that sorely misses the injured Adisa Isaac after suffering significant turnover -- including last year's team sack leader Shaka Toney -- in its front seven in the offseason.
Penn State Has Passing Weapons, Too
Last week, Ball State allowed 367 passing yards to FCS school Western Illinois.
This performance would be easy to shrug off if it did not help confirm preexisting concerns surrounding the Cardinal secondary.
These concerns stem from the departure of former All-MAC cornerback Antonio Phillips.
Especially without him, the Cardinals lack the top-level ability in the secondary to contain speedster Jahan Dotson. They lack guys who can make plays or react quickly enough to the ball in the air.
Quarterback Sean Clifford had a huge second half against Wisconsin -- one that totaled over 200 passing yards -- largely because of his ability to find Dotson who repeatedly got behind the Badger secondary.
Quick scores are great for an "over" and, with the chemistry between Clifford and the deep threat Dotson, the PSU pass attack can accomplish plenty of these.
Best Bet: Over 55.5 at -108 with Heritage
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