Ball State vs. Buffalo: MAC Championship Game Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Ball State Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bulls
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Buffalo’s Schedule & Common Opponents
Buffalo is 5-0, but has benefitted from a paper-thin schedule.
In total, Buffalo’s opponents have six victories.
The Bulls faced two 0-6 teams, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, a one-win team in Akron, and more respectable Miami of Ohio and Kent State squads.
Ball State and Buffalo have had two common opponents: Northern Illinois and Miami of Ohio.
Whereas Buffalo beat Northern Illinois by 19, the Cardinals only beat Northern Illinois by six.
But the score is deceiving for Buffalo. Northern Illinois out-gained Buffalo in total yards.
Moreover, the Huskies controlled this game. They dominated time of possession, accruing 37 minutes to Buffalo’s 22.
What happened was simply that the Huskies gave the game away by committing turnovers.
Miami of Ohio, it is true, beat Ball State but lost to Buffalo.
That loss to Miami of Ohio really isn’t telling, though. Offensively, the Cardinals scored enough (31 points) to win.
Defensively, they lost through the air. They held Miami of Ohio to 3.2 YPC, which is a low average, but could not contain its passing attack.
This result is not telling because Buffalo wants to beat defenses on the ground, not through the air.
Buffalo Offense vs. Ball State Defense
There is no doubt that Buffalo will accrue rushing yards. After all, the Bulls own the fifth-highest run-play percentage in the nation. Only triple-option teams rank ahead of them in this category.
So the question is: how efficiently can the Bulls run the ball?
In terms of run defense, Ball State is actually one of the top MAC teams. It ranks fourth in the conference in opposing rushing yards per game.
For example, Ball State had to face Toledo, which features one of the conference’s top running backs in Bryant Koback.
Against the Cardinals, Koback had by far his worst rushing performance of the season in terms of rushing yards and rushing YPC..
Buffalo’s inability to dominate on the ground will have dire consequences for its rush-heavy offense.
Quarterback Kyle Vantrease is not supposed to do much for Buffalo’s offense.
In each of his past three games, he’s barely completed half of his pass attempts and he’s failed to reach 150 yards passing.
Ball State Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Defensively, Buffalo surrendered its highest output on the season in its game against Kent State.
Against this Bull defense, Kent State was able to score a lot from the beginning of the end to the game.
In particular, Kent State succeeded through the air with quarterback Dustin Crum.
Drew Plitt, Ball State’s quarterback, can replicate this success.
Plitt ranks among the conference’s leaders in efficiency as he’s completing 66.3 percent of his passes. Plitt also ranks second in the conference in passing yards.
He is a consistently accurate quarterback who will make great use of his wide receivers.
Justin Hall is the team’s top wide receiver. While Plitt’s deep ball may not be as developed as his shorter- and intermediate-yardage passing game, Hall ably accrues a lot of yards after the catch.
With his speed and with the way in which he plays bigger than he is, Hall is a big-play threat. He connected with Plitt for the longest play of Ball State’s season, 66 yards.
He’s also dangerous running the ball as well. He averages a team-high 7.3 YPC.
His explosiveness creates a positive contrast with the multitude of strong and physical Ball State runners, like Tye Evans, who average over four YPC.
Ball State has the personnel to execute a solidly balanced offense especially against a Buffalo run defense that ranks middle-of-the-road nationally.
The Verdict
Overrated Buffalo will want to rely heavily on its running game. But being one-dimensionality won’t be a good thing against one of the conference’s top run defenses.
On offense, expect a balanced Ball State attack that mixes speed with physicality on the ground and that features the accurate Drew Plitt in the passing game.
Best Bet: Cardinals +13.5 at -108 with Heritage
Ball State Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bulls
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Buffalo’s Schedule & Common Opponents
Buffalo is 5-0, but has benefitted from a paper-thin schedule.
In total, Buffalo’s opponents have six victories.
The Bulls faced two 0-6 teams, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, a one-win team in Akron, and more respectable Miami of Ohio and Kent State squads.
Ball State and Buffalo have had two common opponents: Northern Illinois and Miami of Ohio.
Whereas Buffalo beat Northern Illinois by 19, the Cardinals only beat Northern Illinois by six.
But the score is deceiving for Buffalo. Northern Illinois out-gained Buffalo in total yards.
Moreover, the Huskies controlled this game. They dominated time of possession, accruing 37 minutes to Buffalo’s 22.
What happened was simply that the Huskies gave the game away by committing turnovers.
Miami of Ohio, it is true, beat Ball State but lost to Buffalo.
That loss to Miami of Ohio really isn’t telling, though. Offensively, the Cardinals scored enough (31 points) to win.
Defensively, they lost through the air. They held Miami of Ohio to 3.2 YPC, which is a low average, but could not contain its passing attack.
This result is not telling because Buffalo wants to beat defenses on the ground, not through the air.
Buffalo Offense vs. Ball State Defense
There is no doubt that Buffalo will accrue rushing yards. After all, the Bulls own the fifth-highest run-play percentage in the nation. Only triple-option teams rank ahead of them in this category.
So the question is: how efficiently can the Bulls run the ball?
In terms of run defense, Ball State is actually one of the top MAC teams. It ranks fourth in the conference in opposing rushing yards per game.
For example, Ball State had to face Toledo, which features one of the conference’s top running backs in Bryant Koback.
Against the Cardinals, Koback had by far his worst rushing performance of the season in terms of rushing yards and rushing YPC..
Buffalo’s inability to dominate on the ground will have dire consequences for its rush-heavy offense.
Quarterback Kyle Vantrease is not supposed to do much for Buffalo’s offense.
In each of his past three games, he’s barely completed half of his pass attempts and he’s failed to reach 150 yards passing.
Ball State Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Defensively, Buffalo surrendered its highest output on the season in its game against Kent State.
Against this Bull defense, Kent State was able to score a lot from the beginning of the end to the game.
In particular, Kent State succeeded through the air with quarterback Dustin Crum.
Drew Plitt, Ball State’s quarterback, can replicate this success.
Plitt ranks among the conference’s leaders in efficiency as he’s completing 66.3 percent of his passes. Plitt also ranks second in the conference in passing yards.
He is a consistently accurate quarterback who will make great use of his wide receivers.
Justin Hall is the team’s top wide receiver. While Plitt’s deep ball may not be as developed as his shorter- and intermediate-yardage passing game, Hall ably accrues a lot of yards after the catch.
With his speed and with the way in which he plays bigger than he is, Hall is a big-play threat. He connected with Plitt for the longest play of Ball State’s season, 66 yards.
He’s also dangerous running the ball as well. He averages a team-high 7.3 YPC.
His explosiveness creates a positive contrast with the multitude of strong and physical Ball State runners, like Tye Evans, who average over four YPC.
Ball State has the personnel to execute a solidly balanced offense especially against a Buffalo run defense that ranks middle-of-the-road nationally.
The Verdict
Overrated Buffalo will want to rely heavily on its running game. But being one-dimensionality won’t be a good thing against one of the conference’s top run defenses.
On offense, expect a balanced Ball State attack that mixes speed with physicality on the ground and that features the accurate Drew Plitt in the passing game.
Best Bet: Cardinals +13.5 at -108 with Heritage
