Bailey's Week 17 Picks

[Bailey81]

YTD: 87-78-10 (-9.8 units)

OK. Final week of the regular season and we've got some interesting matchups with games that mean everything and games that mean nothing. Trying to figure out all the scenerios has given me a headache. I've eliminated a few games that I won't play and have tried to narrow the seletions to a few games. Probably get involved in some 2H wagers today as I think we'll have some nice opportunities there depending on how the games are shaping up.

Detroit @ Green Bay
Going over here as I see the Packers leaving this season on a high note at home. Detroit can't stop anyone, and I'm not sure GB's defense will completely stop Detroit. I think if Detroit gets 10-13, we'll get this one.

Play: Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers Over 41.5 (3 units)

Dallas @ Philly
I think we're in for a shootout here in Philly. Important game for both, but could become meaningless for Philly. I think even if that occurs, McNabb and co will continue to play tough. Both teams in the 20s here.

Play: Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles Over 41.5 (4 units)

New England @ Buffalo
Buffalo will play very well today. Tough, windy conditions means throwing the ball will be tough and the kicking game will be uncertain. Field position will be very important. This one comes down to the wire. Too many points for a division rivalry here.

Play: Buffalo Bills +5.5 (3 units)

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
We know the track record for Indy in preseason games when Dungy rests his guys...they don't win. In a game like this, with backup QBs getting significant time, both teams will run the ball alot. Who does that better? The Titans. Who can't really stop the run that well? The Colts. Expect a low scoring one here that the Titans take over down the stretch with ball control and the run game.

Play: Tennessee Titans -3 +105 (3 units)

Washington @ San Francisco
Love the way the 49ers are playing down the stretch. Did I really just write that? Yup. Singletary looks like he's going to get a contract and stay on and everyone can see what he's done with this team. The Redskins had a good game last week, but really don't think they want to be playing in SF, across the country this week in a meaningless game. Like the Niners to play a great game today.

Play: San Francisco 49ers -3 even (4 units)

Play: 3 Team, 10pt Teaser
Dallas +11, Pittsburgh -1.5, Baltimore pk (4 units)

GLA. :cheers:

 

[Bailey81]

Added Play:

New York @ Minnesota
Coughlin will have this team playing tough to the final whistle. Eli gets rested at some point, but David Carr was actually a semi-legit NFL starter and I don't think the Vikings are that good of a team to lay the TD here to the SuperBowl champs, even in this "must-win" home game. Giants keep it close, and I wouldn't be completely surprised with a Giants W.

Play: New York Giants +7 (3 units)

 

[STEED]

gl

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck Bailey

 

[Bailey81]

Steed, Fondy...Thanks.

Can't believe what I'm watching in Buffalo. Expecting the same thing in the 2H.

Play: Buffalo Bills/New England Patriots 2H Under 13.5 (3 units)

 

[Bailey81]

Play: Indianpolis Colts/Tennessee Titans 2H Over 17 (2 units)

I think Sorgi has moved the ball well and Vince Young will be better in the 2H. Lot of defensive starters will be out and I expect we see at least 20 pts in this 2H.

 

[Bailey81]

Horrible line in New Orleans IMO. Carolina had a 14 point swing with the kickoff fumble. They're in control and won't really look to run it up, probably take starters out at some point. New Orleans will continue to play hard, Brees wants the record and they'll get back in this game.

Play: New Orleans Saints 2H -1 (3 units)

 

[Bailey81]

2 more plays:

Arizona TT Over 26 (2 units) - I think they right the ship offensively today. They have to build some momentum heading into the playoffs.

Jacksonville @ Baltimore
Don't know if Jacksonville will score today. But I don't feel comfortable laying dd with the Ravens. So going under here.

Play: Baltimore/Jacksonville Under 37.5 (3 units)

 

[Bailey81]

I didn't touch the Jets/Dolphins game to start, but I like the Jets to pull this out.

Play: New York Jets 2H -1.5 (3 units)

 

[Bailey81]

OK day so far. Disappointed with the 2H effort from the Jets. And I really would've liked to get the W in San Fran instead of the Push. Just going small here tonight on SNF. I think this one will be tight and you can't count out the Broncos for a backdoor cover even if the Chargers are up comfortably in the 4th...not with Cutler chucking it around.

Play: Denver Broncos +7 (2 units)

GL.

 

[Bailey81]

Just have a feeling tonight we see a tight one, not low scoring necessarily, but not a shootout. This game should have a playoff feel since it is basically the first round for both of these teams and I just don't expect more than 50 pts tonight. Not a big play, but a play none the less.

Play: Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers Under 50.5 (2 units)

 

[Bailey81]

Well, I forgot that the Broncos don't play defense. I don't know how I could forget that. But they get the ball to start the 2H and they'll need a score to get back in this game. They'll have to air it out for the rest of the game and SD will run the ball quite a bit with LT and Sproles...and Denver can't stop anyone. Basically hoping to buy out of the game Under with this one. I could get F'ed with the 3 pt middle that exists, but after watching the 1H, I feel this thing sails over.

Play: Denver Broncos/San Diego 2H Over 24 (4 units)

GL.

 

[lungster]

i like the 2H over too, since whoever is down will try to win. also, denver does play no d and sd will score on them at will. but denver will try to score to keep them in the game

 

[lungster]

GG

hit the over early in the 4th

 

[Bailey81]

Thanks Lungster...yeah easy 2H over. Cancelled out the stupid game bets I made on this one.

Today: 8-7-1 (+4.4 units)
YTD: 95-85-11 (-5.4 units)

Could always be better, but OK with a + day today. Just missed on SF. Oh well. I'll be back this week for playoffs. GL to everyone as we wrap up a great regular season.

 

[Free]

I am glad we got that overs!!!! Nice going.....:cheers: I got the side too & a parley......