Bailey's Bases - April 11

[Bailey81]

Yesterday: 3-1 (+2.6 units)
YTD: 10-5 (+6.64 units) <!-- / message -->

Great day of sports today. Lotta baseball, Masters and the BU Terriers skating for the National Championship tonight vs. Miami (OH). Two early MLB games for me.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
The Pirates got a much needed day off yesterday with the rain out and get to have their ace toe the rubber today. Maholm is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in 34 innings vs Cincy in his last 5 starts. He gave up 1 ER in 6 2/3 in his opening day start and looked pretty sharp. For the Reds, Cueto comes off a good spring that saw him go 1-1 with an ERA of only 1.57 in 5 appearances. He's got pretty nasty stuff but struggled with his consistency last year. Another year of maturity should only help. The Reds are expecting good things from him this year and it starts today. Just a really nice pitching matchup here in Cincy.
Play: Pirates/Reds Under 9 -125 (2 units)

Toronto @ Cleveland
Matchup of each team's #1s after a very late game that was delayed 4 hours and took over 7 hours to complete. I think we see a tired effort from both teams in this one and a bounce back for Cliff Lee who got rocked in his first start. Cleveland is hitting .219 as a team and I don't see that improving all that much today vs Halladay. Roy did give up 5 ERs in his first start vs the Tigers but against a struggling, tired offense, I expect a much sharper effort. Just need one of these guys to be dominant today against tired offenses and I think we stay under.
Play: BlueJays/Indians Under 8 -125 (2 units)

Be back later with a couple more.

GLA.

 

[RetroVK]

Best of luck bailey , nice reasoning.

 

[Bailey81]

Thanks VK.

Not great starts to the early games, with runs in both first innings.

Got a few more for the afternoon/evening.

New York @ Florida
Marlins are certainly the hot team right now and it's tough to go against them at home, but I think I'm getting a nice price on the Mets here. Livan Hernandez faces his old team in South Florida and should enjoy pitching in Miami. He had a solid spring with a 2.25 ERA in 6 appearances, and he's got a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts against the Marlins in Florida. He really seems to like pitching there. The Marlins Ricky Nolasco will have a good year IMO, but his numbers vs the Mets aren't great (2-5 with a 6.27 ERA in 11 appearances and was 1-2 with a 3.82 ERA last year vs Mets in 5 starts). He's coming off his first start where he gave up 5 ERs in 6 innings to the Nationals. I think the Mets will do enough today to stop the Marlins streak.
Play: Mets +130 (1 unit)

New York @ Kansas City
CC will not lay two eggs in a row. Factor in KC's offensive struggles...they've scored only 7 runs this year (1.75 runs/game) and they're hitting .194 as a team with 41 Ks in 4 games!! They continued their struggles last night vs LHP Pettite and they get another LHP today in CC. The Yanks have won 2 in a row after dropping their first two. The offense is doing enough. They face Horacio Ramirez who came out of the bullpen last year for KC and the White Sox. He was 1-4 with a 4.34 ERA in 32 appearance. This spring, things weren't too good either for Ramirez...25 earned runs and 44 hits in 25 innings. Despite my thoughts that KC will be a decent team this year, they're not ready yet. Yanks should push their streak to 3 in a row tonight behind a great effort from their ace.
Play: Yankess RL -125 (2 units)

Seattle @ Oakland
King Felix was certainly sharp in his first start (1 run, 5 hits in 8 innings against the Twins). He's 4-2 with a 2.41 ERA in six starts at Oakland, with complete games in his last two. Maybe Seattle has a little momentum after last night's W and can build on that. Oakland sends out rookie Josh Outman, who makes only his 5th career start. Outman started four times last season, going 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA overall. He has a 5.40 ERA this spring in 7 appearances. Nothing stellar. Good price here today.
Play: Mariners -113 (2 units)

 

[ManchesterUk]

Nice to read your thoughts Bails,GL pal

 

[Riceman]

Bailey - I like the way you think - G.L.

 

[Bailey81]

Thanks ManU.

Appreciate it Rice.

What a way to start the day. Both early games capped pretty well IMO and we end up with 6 runs in the 9th in Cincinnati and 3 runs in the 9th in Cleveland. Frustrating.

 

[Riceman]

I was on with you on both of those earthqakes in the 9th. Can't remember the last time I won one in that fashion in the 9th. Chin up - We be on the right side of one of those soon. I demand it. :angry:

 

[Dmoney416]

Ridiculous beats there, particularly with Toronto as the bases were empty with two down. Rebound in the nightcap Bailey.

 

[Bailey81]

Rice, DMoney...Thanks. It happens. We can only hope it evens out over the course of the year. Moving on.

Philadelphia @ Colorado
Taking the Phils here and Myers in Colorado. Kind of a gut play here as I think Myers turns in a nice performance. He did give up 3 HRs in his first start vs Atlanta but seemed to think he threw well and made 3 mistakes which he said they hit out of the park. He's had success in Colorado. He's 6-0 with a 3.19 ERA in seven games - six starts - lifetime versus the Rockies. The Phils offense has got to get going and it's not the easiest matchup vs DeLaRosa who finished last year at Coors very strong, going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA. But he did struggle vs this same Phillies team in last year's lone start against them, yielding 7 runs, 4 hits, and 3 BBs in 3 1/3 innings.
Play: Phillies -101 (1 unit)

Chicago @ Milwaukee
Zambrano looks to follow up a good opening day start with another one at Miller Park, where he returs to the site of last year's no hitter. He's won his last 3 vs the Brewers with a 2.08 ERA. Last year he was 1-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three starts overall, allowing one run in 21 innings. Milwaukee's offense has struggled to get going, scoring less than 4 runs/game. The Brewers counter with Dave Bush who's average at best and has struggled against the Cubs...since 2006, Bush is 1-7 with a 5.05 ERA vs Chicago. But he faces an offense that has scored 5 runs/game but that's with an 11 spot vs Houston. Cubs offense isn't exactly hot right now and I think we're looking at a 3-2, 4-3 type of game.
Play: Cubs/Brewers Under 8.5 even (1 unit)

GLA.

 

[scarf31]

Great writeups Bailey. Sick mooses on the 2 early starts, hope you get it back tonight. On the Phils with you. Only thing that worries me about that under is Bush's numbers against the Cubbies. Leaning toward the Cubs instead of the over, but good luck my friend.

 

[Bailey81]

Great writeups Bailey. Sick mooses on the 2 early starts, hope you get it back tonight. On the Phils with you. Only thing that worries me about that under is Bush's numbers against the Cubbies. Leaning toward the Cubs instead of the over, but good luck my friend.

Thanks. Hope the Phils get it done for us. I hear you Scarf about Bush. His numbers aren't great vs Chicago, but it seems like the Cubs O hasn't gotten things going yet. We'll see. Hoping to turn things around after a tough early start.

 

[Bailey81]

Congratulations to the Boston Universit Terriers...2009 NCAA Hockey Champions!!!!

I guess any + day is a good day, but boy what a swing with those two early games. a 9 unit swing in the wrong direction with two big 9th innings. Ouch.
Saturday: 4-3 +0.3 units
YTD: 14-8 (+6.94 units)