Bahamas Bowl - WIND 29 mph with gusts to 40

I think there was a very similar situation last year where total dropped like 10 points and the ending was super crazy to not only beat the closer but also somehow got a point above the open.
 
I always feel like the number overreacts to these sort of things. Weather and suspensions in particular. I’m going to look at each teams rushing offense and defense.

The Bahamas bowl is an absolute party and one of my favorites. Remember when it was sponsored by Popeyes? I do.

I hope that number keeps dropping and I’ll take the over.
 
Hold me to this. The weather will not be nearly as bad as it’s predicted now. I hope that number keeps dropping. Because the over is going to cash with ease.
 
I hate this game. I have a couple of surefire angles that conflict on this one.
 
Teapot9 said:
I always feel like the number overreacts to these sort of things. Weather and suspensions in particular. I’m going to look at each teams rushing offense and defense.

The Bahamas bowl is an absolute party and one of my favorites. Remember when it was sponsored by Popeyes? I do.

I hope that number keeps dropping and I’ll take the over.
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Im more worried about weather hurting Charlotte more so than total. Both run heavy but bulls on paper anyways look to have a solid run d (not sure how much I buy some these Mac teams numbers tho?) . Just looks like if the ability to pass taken away it wouldn’t bother buffalo much.
 
2daBank said:
Im more worried about weather hurting Charlotte more so than total. Both run heavy but bulls on paper anyways look to have a solid run d (not sure how much I buy some these Mac teams numbers tho?) . Just looks like if the ability to pass taken away it wouldn’t bother buffalo much.
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agree, and Charlotte has given up rushing yards to some inept offenses.
 
bmac said:
agree, and Charlotte has given up rushing yards to some inept offenses.
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I have no doubt buffalo will run all over them, think it in crimsonk thread he points out how big a mismatch bulls run blocking o-line vs Charlotte defense is.

I have a hard time trusting some the Mac teams numbers since they mostly accumulated against other shitty Mac teams. Like buffalo run defense looks fantastic on paper allowing only 2.9 yards per carry this season but is that due to being great or competition level being weak? Hell if I know, it would seem to me charlotte would be the team wind would hurt tho. Don’t think bulls would mind not throwing a pass where think charlotte will need to open run up with the passing game.
 
Rushing for 786 yards in their final 2 games of the year will definitely impact Buffalo's rushing numbers. No doubt about it however, they are strong - see the road game at Miami (Oh) which they only lost due to turnovers, but ran for 309 (6.31) vs what is considered one of the better MAC Ds.

I know that Charlotte has not done so well vs the run, although sometimes that was due to QB run (MTSU, UTEP). UB doesn't run QB.

UB has been held around 200yjust north or south of that number on the ground in several of their games (CM, Akron, Ohio, Temple, Liberty). And Vantrease is attempting 21.5 passes the last 7 games. Reynolds has attempted 22.85 over that same span.

I actually view these teams as pretty even.
 
2daBank said:
I have no doubt buffalo will run all over them, think it in crimsonk thread he points out how big a mismatch bulls run blocking o-line vs Charlotte defense is.

I have a hard time trusting some the Mac teams numbers since they mostly accumulated against other shitty Mac teams. Like buffalo run defense looks fantastic on paper allowing only 2.9 yards per carry this season but is that due to being great or competition level being weak? Hell if I know, it would seem to me charlotte would be the team wind would hurt tho. Don’t think bulls would mind not throwing a pass where think charlotte will need to open run up with the passing game.
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Looking at just MAC vs MAC stats, Buffalo D did benefit from facing the 4 worse MAC run Os (Akron, EM, Mia, BG) and 6 of the worst 7 overall within their 8 game league schedule.
 
s--k said:
Looking at just MAC vs MAC stats, Buffalo D did benefit from facing the 4 worse MAC run Os (Akron, EM, Mia, BG) and 6 of the worst 7 overall within their 8 game league schedule.
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I think I’m just gonna see how low this total can go then hit the over. I see some 51s now, anything under that and I’ll prob spit in the face of weather!! Lol
 
s--k said:
Rushing for 786 yards in their final 2 games of the year will definitely impact Buffalo's rushing numbers. No doubt about it however, they are strong - see the road game at Miami (Oh) which they only lost due to turnovers, but ran for 309 (6.31) vs what is considered one of the better MAC Ds.

I know that Charlotte has not done so well vs the run, although sometimes that was due to QB run (MTSU, UTEP). UB doesn't run QB.

UB has been held around 200yjust north or south of that number on the ground in several of their games (CM, Akron, Ohio, Temple, Liberty). And Vantrease is attempting 21.5 passes the last 7 games. Reynolds has attempted 22.85 over that same span.

I actually view these teams as pretty even.
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I leaned charlotte before the forecast, this actually helps push me back that direction. I just can’t wrap my head around Mac laying 6.5.
 
according to ESPNs efficiency ratings, Charlotte defense is by far the worst unit in the game
 
Charlotte's D numbers were quite bad the first 6 games (4 of those 6 teams are bowl teams). Their second half season D numbers are much better...but the opponents are worse (2 bowl teams out of 6 games where 49ers were 1-1 SU both as dogs)
 
Copying this from a Charlotte FB message board:

In the first half of the season (from Gardner Webb through the FIU loss), those numbers are 231.8 rushing, 180.2 passing, and 41 points per game.

In the second half of the season (from the WKU loss through ODU), those numbers are 149.8 rushing, 216.5 passing, and 24 points per game.

forums.ninernation.net

Bahamas Bowl 2019

I’m not sure about the rankings, but as far as the raw defensive stats: For the season we gave up 190.8 yards rushing, 198.3 yards passing, and 32.5 points per game. Without Clemson, those numbers fall to 186.8 rushing, 195.4 passing, and 30.7 points per game. Not as big of a difference as I...
forums.ninernation.net forums.ninernation.net
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That same message board is saying Charlotte sold nearly 1000 tickets, Buffalo sold 200. Uncomfirmed, some user who is with the team posted.
 
s--k said:
That same message board is saying Charlotte sold nearly 1000 tickets, Buffalo sold 200. Uncomfirmed, some user who is with the team posted.
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Even if this were true, that’s not giving a decided advantage to Charlotte. We’re talking about 1,000 fans, not 10,000.
 
jedi ninja said:
Even if this were true, that’s not giving a decided advantage to Charlotte. We’re talking about 1,000 fans, not 10,000.
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I agree. Fans of either team in the stands is not going to impact the play on the field. I kind of find those numbers hard to believe myself, maybe travel was too expensive and honestly, Buffalo doesn't have many football fans willing to spend big money to travel. For Charlotte fans, it's a first time thing, so I can get their enthusiasm.

Sometimes ticket sales can be translated to fan interest and sometimes fan interest can be translated to team interest. Personally I think both teams will be motivated to play and try to win.
 
s--k said:
I agree. Fans of either team in the stands is not going to impact the play on the field. I kind of find those numbers hard to believe myself, maybe travel was too expensive and honestly, Buffalo doesn't have many football fans willing to spend big money to travel. For Charlotte fans, it's a first time thing, so I can get their enthusiasm.

Sometimes ticket sales can be translated to fan interest and sometimes fan interest can be translated to team interest. Personally I think both teams will be motivated to play and try to win.
Click to expand...

Yeah, around the holidays not many people are footing the bill to watch UB play a game in the Bahamas. We have a pro football team here, so there isn’t much interest in UB outside of the college kids themselves, and that stadium is a ghost town almost every game anyway...and those are home games. Ain’t no college kids spending that kinda money, one week from Christmas, to watch UB play football in the Bahamas Bowl against a C-USA team.

Now when UB first made a bowl game 5-7 years ago, and played it 90 minutes away in Toronto, there were thousands upon thousands of fans who made that short, and basically free (outside of gas money) trek.
 
Biggest impact from weather could impact the FG kicking game, or decisions to kick or go for it! Buffalo is notoriously sub-par FG kicking team anyway.
 
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