Dodgers Are Determined to Clinch NLCS on Friday Night in Milwaukee
The desperate Brewers host the Dodgers on Friday at 8:39 ET on FS1 for Game 6 of the NLCS. The Brewers need to win or they’ll go home. The Dodgers will send them home.
Game 6: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee
Friday, 8:39 ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML
L.A.’s Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97 ERA) is a reliable piece to help the Dodgers clinch the NLCS. Currently, they lead the series 3-2. The Dodgers have won in Ryu’s last five starts, including on October 13, when Ryu faced off with Milwaukee starter Wade Miley. Ryu has allowed three total runs in his last four starts dating to the regular season. The postseason doesn’t bother Ryu. In 27.1 playoff innings, his ERA is 2.30.
Ryu utilizes a variety of pitches—he throws his most frequent one, the fastball, with only 32 percent frequency. He adds in a cutter, curve, and change-up with combined 60 percent frequency. The southpaw Ryu leans on his fastball especially against left-handed batters, but is significantly more balanced against righties. For instance, he has three different pitches which he throws with between 22 and 28 percent frequency to start off an at-bat against a righty. Ryu loves throwing his fastball to lefties because he can work inside with it, which amps his pitch’s perceived velocity. Against lefties, he throws it 22 percent of the time in the two most left-middle spots of the zone. He uses its moderate glove-side movement to aggressively toy with the batter’s perception of whether the pitch will stay inside or move inside the zone. His fastball is effective against righties, too. Opponents bat .214 against it.
His curve and change-up are also extremely effective. Opponents bat .204 against the former and .169 against the latter. His curveball is elusive and tricky with strong arm-side movement and strong negative vertical movement. Its velocity differential relative to his fastball is also comparatively extreme. It averages 17 fewer mph, which throws batters off-balance. Further evidence of his excellent curveball command is that he is comfortable throwing it to start off batters—which he does with over 20% frequency-- and unpredictably elevating it, although he most frequently keeps it low in the zone. His curveball’s strong and funky movement, its velocity differential, his command with it, its elevation, and balanced pitch sequencing make it his second-favorite whiff pitch. His change-up induces even more whiffs. His change-up has a relatively strong velocity differential compared with his fastball—it’s 10 mph slower. It has strong glove-side movement and he’s even more precise with its location, placing it with 42 percent frequency in the three most lower-right spots in the zone. Its concentration low in the zone combined with its dip and lateral movement toy with the batter’s perception of whether it will be a strike or ball.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A two-strike infield single from Chris Taylor set the tone for a Dodger team that found ways to score in Game 5 without its typical power. <a href="https://t.co/rxUAjISWxq">https://t.co/rxUAjISWxq</a></p>— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) <a href=" ">18. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) has nice numbers on the surface. But he’s benefitted from luck. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.59. Further metrical data indicates even more ominous conclusions about his regular season performance. He benefitted from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite averaging a career high in hard contact. Even if Miley manages to do well on Friday, he hasn’t lasted even six innings since September 4. Even if the Brewers are within striking distance of the Dodgers, there will still a third of the game left to play. Milwaukee’s bullpen continues to be poor and inferior to the Dodgers in this series. In Game 5, the bullpen allowed two runs. In Game 4, the bullpen lost the game in extra innings. The Dodgers bullpen has allowed a third as many runs as Milwaukee’s in the past two games alone, a trend which has been consistent since the series began.
Watch for Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig, who are batting above .300 in the postseason. Justin Turner has been L.A.’s third best hitter. He slugged .580 against southpaws in the regular season. The Brewers need to win, but desperation can just as easily work against them. For example, the Yankees made Boston starter Rick Porcello look as good as he never had before in Yankee Stadium because they needed to win and their batters were too aggressive and too predictable.
The desperate Brewers host the Dodgers on Friday at 8:39 ET on FS1 for Game 6 of the NLCS. The Brewers need to win or they’ll go home. The Dodgers will send them home.
Game 6: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee
Friday, 8:39 ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML
L.A.’s Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97 ERA) is a reliable piece to help the Dodgers clinch the NLCS. Currently, they lead the series 3-2. The Dodgers have won in Ryu’s last five starts, including on October 13, when Ryu faced off with Milwaukee starter Wade Miley. Ryu has allowed three total runs in his last four starts dating to the regular season. The postseason doesn’t bother Ryu. In 27.1 playoff innings, his ERA is 2.30.
Ryu utilizes a variety of pitches—he throws his most frequent one, the fastball, with only 32 percent frequency. He adds in a cutter, curve, and change-up with combined 60 percent frequency. The southpaw Ryu leans on his fastball especially against left-handed batters, but is significantly more balanced against righties. For instance, he has three different pitches which he throws with between 22 and 28 percent frequency to start off an at-bat against a righty. Ryu loves throwing his fastball to lefties because he can work inside with it, which amps his pitch’s perceived velocity. Against lefties, he throws it 22 percent of the time in the two most left-middle spots of the zone. He uses its moderate glove-side movement to aggressively toy with the batter’s perception of whether the pitch will stay inside or move inside the zone. His fastball is effective against righties, too. Opponents bat .214 against it.
His curve and change-up are also extremely effective. Opponents bat .204 against the former and .169 against the latter. His curveball is elusive and tricky with strong arm-side movement and strong negative vertical movement. Its velocity differential relative to his fastball is also comparatively extreme. It averages 17 fewer mph, which throws batters off-balance. Further evidence of his excellent curveball command is that he is comfortable throwing it to start off batters—which he does with over 20% frequency-- and unpredictably elevating it, although he most frequently keeps it low in the zone. His curveball’s strong and funky movement, its velocity differential, his command with it, its elevation, and balanced pitch sequencing make it his second-favorite whiff pitch. His change-up induces even more whiffs. His change-up has a relatively strong velocity differential compared with his fastball—it’s 10 mph slower. It has strong glove-side movement and he’s even more precise with its location, placing it with 42 percent frequency in the three most lower-right spots in the zone. Its concentration low in the zone combined with its dip and lateral movement toy with the batter’s perception of whether it will be a strike or ball.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A two-strike infield single from Chris Taylor set the tone for a Dodger team that found ways to score in Game 5 without its typical power. <a href="https://t.co/rxUAjISWxq">https://t.co/rxUAjISWxq</a></p>— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) <a href=" ">18. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) has nice numbers on the surface. But he’s benefitted from luck. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.59. Further metrical data indicates even more ominous conclusions about his regular season performance. He benefitted from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite averaging a career high in hard contact. Even if Miley manages to do well on Friday, he hasn’t lasted even six innings since September 4. Even if the Brewers are within striking distance of the Dodgers, there will still a third of the game left to play. Milwaukee’s bullpen continues to be poor and inferior to the Dodgers in this series. In Game 5, the bullpen allowed two runs. In Game 4, the bullpen lost the game in extra innings. The Dodgers bullpen has allowed a third as many runs as Milwaukee’s in the past two games alone, a trend which has been consistent since the series began.
Watch for Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig, who are batting above .300 in the postseason. Justin Turner has been L.A.’s third best hitter. He slugged .580 against southpaws in the regular season. The Brewers need to win, but desperation can just as easily work against them. For example, the Yankees made Boston starter Rick Porcello look as good as he never had before in Yankee Stadium because they needed to win and their batters were too aggressive and too predictable.
