The Astros Are Coming! The Astros Are Coming! Boston Is Ready to Take Game 2 of ALCS
Boston hosts Houston on Sunday at 7:09 ET on TBS. The media is trying to steer you away from betting on Boston pitcher David Price. Don’t fall for it.
Game 2: Houston at Boston
Sunday, 7:09 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML
There’s a lot of media clamor about Boston pitcher David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA). After a couple bad starts to end the season and a rough outing against the Yankees, we’re supposed to believe that the Apocalypse has arrived for Price. When considering to put a pitcher on fade alert, I need more than just a couple bad outings. I looked at Price’s velocity, pitch movement, and horizontal and vertical release points, and it’s apparent that he isn’t suffering from injury or mechanical difficulties. Everything is normal with him, he’s simply experiencing a rough patch. It’s hard to penalize him for two tough outings against a Yankees squad that typically hits him hard anyways and a mediocre one against a Baltimore team that he even got the win against. Houston provides an excellent opportunity for Price to bounce back because Price is familiar with Houston’s lineup and has garnered consistent success against it. In two regular season starts against Houston, Price achieved a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Price’s FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was 0.95 in the start in Boston and 3.49 in Houston. In the start in Boston, Price allowed a hard contact and line drive rate beneath his season average. That start was in September, only five weeks ago. Nothing has changed with Price since then.
The betting numbers and stats are all for Price today. He yields +12.3 units. Boston is 13-4 in his home starts, yielding +8 units, and is 11-3 in his last 14 starts. Two of those losses came against the Yanks. In 189 career at-bats, Houston hitters are batting .233 against him. Top hitter Jose Altuve has only one extra-base hit against him in 26 tries. Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Marwin Gonzalez are combined 10-for-51 (.196) against him. The Astros do poorly against southpaws, yielding -7.1 units against them. Based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a lineup’s slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, Houston is the seventh-most overachieving team against Price’s favorite pitches, the sinker, cutter, and change-up, from lefties, and so is due for statistical regression.
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Boston batters are up for the challenge presented by Houston starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. In four games against the Yanks in the ALDS, Boston batters produced 27 runs—nearly seven per game. Cole has allowed three homers to Boston in two starts, so Boston will get its share of runs against him. Houston’s bullpen is formidable on paper, but its relievers actually have a terrible history against Boston’s elite lineup. Ryan Pressly, for instance, has allowed three runs in 1.1 innings. Another important member of Houston’s bullpen, Collin McHugh, allowed two runs in 2.1 innings. The list goes on. In at least five at-bats, Boston has eight guys who are batting at least .280 in the postseason. A number of them—even besides the obvious candidates, superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez— have accrued solid numbers against Houston pitching. Andrew Benintendi, for instance, is slugging .567 against the Astros. Xander Bogaerts is slugging .778 against them.
The Red Sox bullpen is top-10 in terms of ERA and will hold down the fort after Price and the lineup procure the lead. Craig Kimbrel, for instance, is widely viewed as an elite closer.
Boston hosts Houston on Sunday at 7:09 ET on TBS. The media is trying to steer you away from betting on Boston pitcher David Price. Don’t fall for it.
Game 2: Houston at Boston
Sunday, 7:09 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML
There’s a lot of media clamor about Boston pitcher David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA). After a couple bad starts to end the season and a rough outing against the Yankees, we’re supposed to believe that the Apocalypse has arrived for Price. When considering to put a pitcher on fade alert, I need more than just a couple bad outings. I looked at Price’s velocity, pitch movement, and horizontal and vertical release points, and it’s apparent that he isn’t suffering from injury or mechanical difficulties. Everything is normal with him, he’s simply experiencing a rough patch. It’s hard to penalize him for two tough outings against a Yankees squad that typically hits him hard anyways and a mediocre one against a Baltimore team that he even got the win against. Houston provides an excellent opportunity for Price to bounce back because Price is familiar with Houston’s lineup and has garnered consistent success against it. In two regular season starts against Houston, Price achieved a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Price’s FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was 0.95 in the start in Boston and 3.49 in Houston. In the start in Boston, Price allowed a hard contact and line drive rate beneath his season average. That start was in September, only five weeks ago. Nothing has changed with Price since then.
The betting numbers and stats are all for Price today. He yields +12.3 units. Boston is 13-4 in his home starts, yielding +8 units, and is 11-3 in his last 14 starts. Two of those losses came against the Yanks. In 189 career at-bats, Houston hitters are batting .233 against him. Top hitter Jose Altuve has only one extra-base hit against him in 26 tries. Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Marwin Gonzalez are combined 10-for-51 (.196) against him. The Astros do poorly against southpaws, yielding -7.1 units against them. Based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a lineup’s slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, Houston is the seventh-most overachieving team against Price’s favorite pitches, the sinker, cutter, and change-up, from lefties, and so is due for statistical regression.
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Boston batters are up for the challenge presented by Houston starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. In four games against the Yanks in the ALDS, Boston batters produced 27 runs—nearly seven per game. Cole has allowed three homers to Boston in two starts, so Boston will get its share of runs against him. Houston’s bullpen is formidable on paper, but its relievers actually have a terrible history against Boston’s elite lineup. Ryan Pressly, for instance, has allowed three runs in 1.1 innings. Another important member of Houston’s bullpen, Collin McHugh, allowed two runs in 2.1 innings. The list goes on. In at least five at-bats, Boston has eight guys who are batting at least .280 in the postseason. A number of them—even besides the obvious candidates, superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez— have accrued solid numbers against Houston pitching. Andrew Benintendi, for instance, is slugging .567 against the Astros. Xander Bogaerts is slugging .778 against them.
The Red Sox bullpen is top-10 in terms of ERA and will hold down the fort after Price and the lineup procure the lead. Craig Kimbrel, for instance, is widely viewed as an elite closer.
