Count on Varsity Performance from Boston vs JV-led Houston
Houston hosts Boston on Thursday at 8:09 ET on TBS for Game 5 of the ALCS. Houston’s starter is a big name, but Boston’s elite lineup will prevail against him.
Game 5: Thursday, 8:09 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Boston
Houston’s Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) is at a disadvantage pitching at home, where he yields -18.3 units, compared to +10.3 units on the road. He’s also in a bad spot as the favored pitcher and he’s worse at night. In both scenarios, he’s yielding -10 units.
There is logic behind these betting stats. Verlander’s career ERA is 3.15 in the daytime, but 3.53 at night. Verlander could be worse at night for a variety of reasons, ranging from circadian rhythm—which effectively means his idiosyncratic physiological readiness to perform well—to matters of routine, eyesight under artificial as opposed to natural light, and personal preference. Moreover, Verlander is worse in Houston. HIs ERA is .70 higher at home than away. Home and away are often misinterpreted by bettors. There isn’t really a „12th man“ like in football or distractions like when a basketball player attempts free throws. The pitcher is focused on the batter and so is the batter on the pitcher. Instead, the significance of a venue is measured by its dimensions and how a pitcher’s style may be compatible with those dimensions. Houston’s ballpark is not suited for Verlander because its dimensions allow, statistically speaking, an extremely high number of fly balls to become home runs that, based on their weak contact, in an average-sized ballpark should not have been home runs. Verlander is a fly ball pitcher meaning that he likes to elevate his pitches to generate fly ball outs. In six of his last seven regular season starts, he didn’t induce ground balls at a rate of 30% or higher. So, he’s a bad fit for Houston’s ballpark because he’ll concede more fly balls which increases the risk that he’ll allow a homer. This season, he allowed 10 more homers at home than away.
Match-up wise, Verlander should be expected to struggle against Boston. Verlander’s favorite pitch is his fastball. He throws it with 61 percent frequency, so even when he struggles he still leans on it. He relies above all on its velocity. It averages 96 mph. Boston ranks fifth in slugging against the high-velo (94-99 mph) fastball. Of the six Red Sox batters who have faced Verlander at least 10 times, three of them—Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, and Eduardo Nunez-- are batting at least .300. Top slugger J.D. Martinez is already 2-for-3 against him.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rise & shine! <br><br>We have to do it all again! <a href="https://t.co/6Ma09AcElY">pic.twitter.com/6Ma09AcElY</a></p>— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) <a href=" ">17. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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The damage doesn’t end with Verlander. Boston has achieved seven runs in its past two games against Houston relievers. Besides Moreland, Holt, Nunez, and Martinez, watch for Rafael Devers, who is 5-for-11 in the postseason. As a lefty, his slugging rate was .117 higher against right-handed pitchers in the regular season.
If Boston goes up 3-1 in the series, then it likely won’t utilize the ailing ace Chris Sale. Instead, it could rely on David Price or Eduardo Rodriguez. Price would look to bounce back from his Game 2 effort. In the regular season, he yielded a 0.95 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in his last start against Houston. Rodriguez is fresh and pitched one shutout inning against Houston in Boston’s Game 3 win. If Sale goes, bettors won’t get as much betting value from the MLB odds board, but they would benefit from leaning on one of baseball’s best pitchers. Sale has won his last eight decisions. In 118 at-bats against Sale, Houston batters have struck out almost six times as often as they’ve managed an extra-base hit. They’re hitting .237 against him and the number is that high because Sale was clearly unhealthy when he last faced them.
Houston hosts Boston on Thursday at 8:09 ET on TBS for Game 5 of the ALCS. Houston’s starter is a big name, but Boston’s elite lineup will prevail against him.
Game 5: Thursday, 8:09 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Boston
Houston’s Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) is at a disadvantage pitching at home, where he yields -18.3 units, compared to +10.3 units on the road. He’s also in a bad spot as the favored pitcher and he’s worse at night. In both scenarios, he’s yielding -10 units.
There is logic behind these betting stats. Verlander’s career ERA is 3.15 in the daytime, but 3.53 at night. Verlander could be worse at night for a variety of reasons, ranging from circadian rhythm—which effectively means his idiosyncratic physiological readiness to perform well—to matters of routine, eyesight under artificial as opposed to natural light, and personal preference. Moreover, Verlander is worse in Houston. HIs ERA is .70 higher at home than away. Home and away are often misinterpreted by bettors. There isn’t really a „12th man“ like in football or distractions like when a basketball player attempts free throws. The pitcher is focused on the batter and so is the batter on the pitcher. Instead, the significance of a venue is measured by its dimensions and how a pitcher’s style may be compatible with those dimensions. Houston’s ballpark is not suited for Verlander because its dimensions allow, statistically speaking, an extremely high number of fly balls to become home runs that, based on their weak contact, in an average-sized ballpark should not have been home runs. Verlander is a fly ball pitcher meaning that he likes to elevate his pitches to generate fly ball outs. In six of his last seven regular season starts, he didn’t induce ground balls at a rate of 30% or higher. So, he’s a bad fit for Houston’s ballpark because he’ll concede more fly balls which increases the risk that he’ll allow a homer. This season, he allowed 10 more homers at home than away.
Match-up wise, Verlander should be expected to struggle against Boston. Verlander’s favorite pitch is his fastball. He throws it with 61 percent frequency, so even when he struggles he still leans on it. He relies above all on its velocity. It averages 96 mph. Boston ranks fifth in slugging against the high-velo (94-99 mph) fastball. Of the six Red Sox batters who have faced Verlander at least 10 times, three of them—Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, and Eduardo Nunez-- are batting at least .300. Top slugger J.D. Martinez is already 2-for-3 against him.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rise & shine! <br><br>We have to do it all again! <a href="https://t.co/6Ma09AcElY">pic.twitter.com/6Ma09AcElY</a></p>— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) <a href=" ">17. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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The damage doesn’t end with Verlander. Boston has achieved seven runs in its past two games against Houston relievers. Besides Moreland, Holt, Nunez, and Martinez, watch for Rafael Devers, who is 5-for-11 in the postseason. As a lefty, his slugging rate was .117 higher against right-handed pitchers in the regular season.
If Boston goes up 3-1 in the series, then it likely won’t utilize the ailing ace Chris Sale. Instead, it could rely on David Price or Eduardo Rodriguez. Price would look to bounce back from his Game 2 effort. In the regular season, he yielded a 0.95 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in his last start against Houston. Rodriguez is fresh and pitched one shutout inning against Houston in Boston’s Game 3 win. If Sale goes, bettors won’t get as much betting value from the MLB odds board, but they would benefit from leaning on one of baseball’s best pitchers. Sale has won his last eight decisions. In 118 at-bats against Sale, Houston batters have struck out almost six times as often as they’ve managed an extra-base hit. They’re hitting .237 against him and the number is that high because Sale was clearly unhealthy when he last faced them.
