B1G week 4

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Wisconsin vs Purdue
Tickets are as low as 16 bucks to watch maybe a shootout?

Rutgers vs Michigan
Tickets are as low as 87 bones to fall asleep?

FAU vs. Illinois
Tickets as low as 4 dollars. Rather buy some funyons than watch this.

Maryland vs Michigan State
Might be a fun game, you can go for 46 bucks

Louisiana Tech vs Nebraska
13 bucks to watch the corn fest

Ohio State vs Notre Dame
446.00 will get you in the door to touchdown Jesus

Iowa vs Penn State
209 to see an interesting game.

Akron vs Indiana
13 bucks to see a game 1 person will maybe care about.

Minnesota vs Northwestern
8 bcuks to watch paint dry
 
HUNT said:
I thought the line would be around 17-20 to be honest, but the more I cap it, I get the line now.
Click to expand...
I'll get my proverbial post in during the games tonight...

That 29.5 opener was ridiculous.

25.5 still a bit stunning.

21/21.5 was my guess that we wud see.

I like Rutgers a lot this year, and coach is damn good.

They'll get into DDs, 10-14 points.

Cap from there imo.

Obviously factor in clock etc.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'll get my proverbial post in during the games tonight...

That 29.5 opener was ridiculous.

25.5 still a bit stunning.

21/21.5 was my guess that we wud see.

I like Rutgers a lot this year, and coach is damn good.

They'll get into DDs, 10-14 points.

Cap from there imo.

Obviously factor in clock etc.
Click to expand...
Rutgers seems tempting to say the least. But we've seen this movie with them several times before. But I do think Schiano is getting them better every year. Maybe they can start covering these types of spreads - think I have to see it first though. I haven't read everything but seems like you've been all over the Michigan Unders so far. Probably a good bet again here.
 
Alright, good evening everyone...


Great week betting in-conference last week, so hopefully can continue to 'see it well'

Lost UM 2h tt]
Lost Nebraska under (BAD BEAT)
Won Maryland ats
Won OSU over
Won Wash tt
Won Purdue live over
Won Duke ats

I never played Rutgers though, and I mentioned that a few times.

Hopefully the last Saturday for a few weeks where I have any obligations, so time to really step things up a notch or two...

Couple of quick-hitters:

-I was surprised at ease UNC had scoring/passing on the Gophers. We'll remember that down the line.
-Perfect opponent for OSU, they needed that to get some continuity going.
-Allar now has a road win under his belt. Don't sleep on this team.
-I believe yards at halftime in Lincoln were 108-58
-Wisconsin is lucky GSU imploded
-That was the game to get Iowa TT, finally.


I didn't attack that MSU-Wash game like I should have. Granted, that line became somewhat inflated and there were circumstances involved, but we had a perfect match up there. Hey, is what it is...

Michigan thoughts...

Really nice first and second drives. The INT on that 2nd drive wasn't on JJ. That was IU transfer running to the wrong part of the field. After that, they almost seemed to press a bit. The fact they only had 44 plays was discouraging. The spread was never in doubt. They were going to need to be up 49 of with under 8 minutes left. That staff is family -- bottom line -- plus the Wolves 3rd and 4th string guys have not played well in 4th quarters.

Michigan was bored here, no doubt, as well. We saw this with many highly ranked teams last Saturday. Exhibition season is over. At least the fans get a Texas game next season instead of these last few years schedules.

Corum looked much better, that is huge. A few changes on OL should get them going more in these next few weeks.


Alright, on to Week #3 in the ole B16

(time sure is flying)

We have a very interesting game in West Lafayette this Friday night! Big game for the Boilers, as they have got outclassed last week hosting Syracuse. That is a really solid Cuse team though. I do not know what to totally think about the Badgers right now. They are a work-in-progress. I would guess they will be wildly inconsistent until the last 4-5 weeks. Nothing I can think of bet-wise here.

Illinois has a chance to climb back .500 with a game versus the FAU Owls. I need to cap this more, and frankly don't have any groundbreaking thoughts on this game.

La Tech heads to Nebraska. I'll link some quotes in the next post once back on mobile. I already swore off betting LT with Bachmeier at the helm. On the flip, can you really trust the Huskers right now? Stay far, far away...

I'm going to start a separate OSU-ND thread, I think this big of a game deserves a standalone... already have bet Irish +3.5 fwiw...

Tucker is almost officially gone now... how do they react this week? The secondary is bad as usual, Tua junior should have very good success here. I can already tell you this will be a game that I stalk 'live'. I feel like this is a discount kinda game... Maryland doing their usual September thing... don't forget, a bit of extra rest...

The conference has 4 night games this week. One is HUGE, and another is pretty big. Why have two others? You know bad Northwestern is? Minnesota is a DD favorite. Heck, 38 might be too high here total-wise sans turnovers.

Penn State, whiteout, I expect they will cruise pretty handily. I don't want to lay it, as of now, but that would be my side. Iowa defense will certainly test the young kid, but in the end the Lions are just that much better. This feels like a 2nd half pull away...

The only suspense in Bloomington would be the Zips winning it 'on the field' and bolstering the RSW resumes of several posters here.

High noon in A2 will feature the Wolverines and Scarlet Knights. RU is off to a nice start this year, winning games by 19,17 and 29. Those foes were pretty bad, but they are well-coached and taking care of business. I'll be honest, that interesting performance last week by UM vs BG likely woke them up a bit. I was afraid that would come here, like it did aa few years ago in the same spot vs the Knights. Jim is back, and thankfully so. The rotating coaches wasn't as smooth as they hoped for. There should be a good energy here. Yes, if I had been able to get down on the 29.5/30.5 I would have taken that in a heartbeat. There is no way I lay it with UM even at 24 but I am in no hurry to get to the ticket window on RU either. The totals are adjusting better for Michigan, but we in the event of a 3+ score game, they have let everyone's backups drive down the field late. No bets here.
 
Interesting words from Harbaugh;
"Watching the game and not being on the sideline, I saw it from a different perspective,” Harbaugh said. “Here’s what we could do to make it even better.”

The first thing Harbaugh noted he wants to change is the pressure he believes his team is feeling. Not only are the Wolverines ranked second in the country, but they are the No. 1 scoring defense in the country right now, giving up 16 points in just three games. Harbaugh wants his guys to know he just expects them to win, not blow out every team.

“You watch the game, and (there are) so many so many feelings of ‘Hey, just win. Just win the game. By one point.’ One point is what we’re really after,” Harbaugh said. “And I don’t know if maybe there’s been too much pressure on the players that they have to win by 40 points or 30 points or 25 points. That’s a lot. Making sure that our team knows that the goal is to win the game.”



I took Rutgers +24.5, missed the +30.5 damn it! Knights playing pretty sound right now. On the flip side the BGSU game might be just what the doctor ordered for Wolvs. Last year Knights had a 17-14 halftime lead and were smoked the 2nd half in NJ. Thinking we will see the same methodical wolvs grinding it out and as long as the Knights stay fundamentally sound, keep things in front of them, it should stay around a 2-3 td game. Harbaugh's words just reinforces my belief that it will be closer than 4 td's.

Yeah, Ohio St had a feel good game. Defense was scrambling around early but settled down. WKU gifted a few Buckeye scores. Overall Bucs played good ball ahead of ND. Should be a great game. Took Buckeyes -3 because they have overall superior talent.

Had Washington last week and continuing with Terps -6.5 this wk. Over 500 yds passing from the Huskies, Sparty in a tailspin, I'll bite.

Took a not so confident +14.5 with Iowa. Like the hook and Franklin has a history of playing Hawkeyes close. Penn St playing good ball though.

All four BIG conference games have gone under so far, totals are dropping.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'll get my proverbial post in during the games tonight...

That 29.5 opener was ridiculous.

25.5 still a bit stunning.

21/21.5 was my guess that we wud see.

I like Rutgers a lot this year, and coach is damn good.

They'll get into DDs, 10-14 points.

Cap from there imo.

Obviously factor in clock etc.
Click to expand...
I believe that going into the BG game Michigan games were averaging 117.5 plays. Now they’re averaging 112. That means the BG game had 101 plays, the lowest number I can ever recall seeing. I had a lot riding on BG +28 and +40.5, so I’m not complaining.
 
HUNT said:
I thought the line would be around 17-20 to be honest, but the more I cap it, I get the line now.
Click to expand...
I think the challenge is that, given Rutgers' offense, UM can just about name their score on the defensive side (i'm not as confident as BAR that they'll get 10-14). 35-7 feels completely possible but so does 24-6. Suppose if I have to take a side, I'll take the 24' but under feels better than either side - not that there's much of a living to be made playing unders in the mid-40s in CFB...
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I think the challenge is that, given Rutgers' offense, UM can just about name their score on the defensive side (i'm not as confident as BAR that they'll get 10-14). 35-7 feels completely possible but so does 24-6. Suppose if I have to take a side, I'll take the 24' but under feels better than either side - not that there's much of a living to be made playing unders in the mid-40s in CFB...
Click to expand...
This year, with the right teams, their certainly can be a living made on unders.

Pickiness helps.

It's there though, or at least was for a few weeks.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I think the challenge is that, given Rutgers' offense, UM can just about name their score on the defensive side (i'm not as confident as BAR that they'll get 10-14). 35-7 feels completely possible but so does 24-6. Suppose if I have to take a side, I'll take the 24' but under feels better than either side - not that there's much of a living to be made playing unders in the mid-40s in CFB...
Click to expand...
You can make a living doing that in Iowa.
 
B.A.R. said:
This year, with the right teams, their certainly can be a living made on unders.

Pickiness helps.

It's there though, or at least was for a few weeks.
Click to expand...
It's still there

I think it's all across football, not just college though

Last night, both NFL games closed at 39. Seems like a philosophical difference.
 
Also it's not like we have to play unders and hope to watch paint dry for 3 hours

Playing dogs is actually pretty fun
 
B.A.R. said:
This year, with the right teams, their certainly can be a living made on unders.

Pickiness helps.

It's there though, or at least was for a few weeks.
Click to expand...
Oh, absolutely, I prefer unders conceptually. At least so far this season, I seem to have done better with higher numbers where books hadn't yet accounted for just how downgraded some of the previously good offenses are at this point (Vols, tOSU, Okie St, Miss St) and those numbers necessarily are way higher than mid-40s.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Oh, absolutely, I prefer unders conceptually. At least so far this season, I seem to have done better with higher numbers where books hadn't yet accounted for just how downgraded some of the previously good offenses are at this point (Vols, tOSU, Okie St, Miss St) and those numbers necessarily are way higher than mid-40s.
Click to expand...
Very nice.
 
Michigan injury updates:

Not much here, that is concrete.

They have been letting 75% of the secondary sit out for the most part versus the exhibition schedule. The best CB in America has played a few downs, and that is it. The bigger concern is Rod Moore. The reports have been differing for a month now. Hopefully he is ready in the next week or two. Everything I have gathered is this is a rest vs surgery situation. Shall see. He's an All-American candidate, and much needed for the meat of the schedule. No clue on Paige, I believe his rest has been precautionary.

Rumor today is one of the DL(Graham) might be out 2-3 weeks.
 
Reading a lot tonight...

Seems the UM team is excited to play this game. The OL wants to make a statement, apparently. This is a solid defense to do that too.

Hopefully...

I definitely think they are "cleaner" than they have been without JH.

Homecoming (they haven't went anywhere, but apparently it is).

Rumors that they are getting healthier on offense as well (few receivers haven't played plus a certain frosh RB).

Last home game before the NU and Minny trips.

Noon game is good. Jim loves noon games and I'd say, without the use of numbers, that overall they perform at their best in that slot.
 
No additional reads on Sparty -- everything is still about Tugger + the next coach. I can't find any quality info.

Back tomorrow night and hopefully have some better thoughts...

Questions UM or betting related, Pop em, I'll be here 10pm till 2am tomorrow.
 
As of now, it seems like the big stars in UMs secondary are back.

Graham out s few weeks..that's big for the rush defense.
 
No bets on the UM game.

Total seems properly adjusted.

I'll go with 34-13, sneaking OVER this time, probably late.
 
UM should have covered all of their games to date. Bad turnovers, failing to score inside the 10, etc.

Jim is back and I think they’ll want to see JJ have a good game versus sneak out a 2 score win. 30 seemed bold but maybe that’s where this thing is going. I don’t see Rutgers consistently moving the ball. I’ll probably play a correlated parlay with the favorite and the over but the opposite will likely happen.
 
Inspekdah said:
UM should have covered all of their games to date. Bad turnovers, failing to score inside the 10, etc.

Jim is back and I think they’ll want to see JJ have a good game versus sneak out a 2 score win. 30 seemed bold but maybe that’s where this thing is going. I don’t see Rutgers consistently moving the ball. I’ll probably play a correlated parlay with the favorite and the over but the opposite will likely happen.
Click to expand...
Secondary having health will be big.
 
V.K. said:
Interesting words from Harbaugh;
"Watching the game and not being on the sideline, I saw it from a different perspective,” Harbaugh said. “Here’s what we could do to make it even better.”

The first thing Harbaugh noted he wants to change is the pressure he believes his team is feeling. Not only are the Wolverines ranked second in the country, but they are the No. 1 scoring defense in the country right now, giving up 16 points in just three games. Harbaugh wants his guys to know he just expects them to win, not blow out every team.

“You watch the game, and (there are) so many so many feelings of ‘Hey, just win. Just win the game. By one point.’ One point is what we’re really after,” Harbaugh said. “And I don’t know if maybe there’s been too much pressure on the players that they have to win by 40 points or 30 points or 25 points. That’s a lot. Making sure that our team knows that the goal is to win the game.”



I took Rutgers +24.5, missed the +30.5 damn it! Knights playing pretty sound right now. On the flip side the BGSU game might be just what the doctor ordered for Wolvs. Last year Knights had a 17-14 halftime lead and were smoked the 2nd half in NJ. Thinking we will see the same methodical wolvs grinding it out and as long as the Knights stay fundamentally sound, keep things in front of them, it should stay around a 2-3 td game. Harbaugh's words just reinforces my belief that it will be closer than 4 td's.

Yeah, Ohio St had a feel good game. Defense was scrambling around early but settled down. WKU gifted a few Buckeye scores. Overall Bucs played good ball ahead of ND. Should be a great game. Took Buckeyes -3 because they have overall superior talent.

Had Washington last week and continuing with Terps -6.5 this wk. Over 500 yds passing from the Huskies, Sparty in a tailspin, I'll bite.

Took a not so confident +14.5 with Iowa. Like the hook and Franklin has a history of playing Hawkeyes close. Penn St playing good ball though.

All four BIG conference games have gone under so far, totals are dropping.
Click to expand...
Adrian Claiborne playing for SGU?
 
@B.A.R. Capping and rivalries aside, who you rooting for in OSU-ND game in terms of Michigan’s playoff hopes? Obviously get in undefeated, but 1-loss UM may need some help.
 
Tin&Lint said:
@B.A.R. Capping and rivalries aside, who you rooting for in OSU-ND game in terms of Michigan’s playoff hopes? Obviously get in undefeated, but 1-loss UM may need some help.
Click to expand...
Only one big ten team gets in, imo.

I still think it comes down to a tiebreaker for the East.

As far as today, my money is on ND, so that's my rooting interest.

Otherwise, I would always want OSU undefeated for "The Game".
 
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