B1G Week 4 Thread...

B.A.R.

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Let's start with some quick takeaways from last week...

1. Oregon looked like Oregon finally -- Running game was humming and Dillon was very efficient -- nice win

2. Michigan 1st team defense was much better overall, and the running game busted out, albeit vs a poor defensive team vs the rush

3. Wisconsin absolutely throttled at home plus an injury to QB1. Maybe HC is just suited to the middle levels of CFB? Still time to build this.

4. Purdue had no shot after all, but especially versus a wounded warrior. Nothing here to take away positive for the Boilers.

5. Nebraska took care of business but that T.O.P is certainly wild. I couldn't figure out the 22-rush attempt's until scouting that box.

6. Illinois is going to be that non-flashy team that wins a lot of games this year. Solid defense and a QB who will not lose you games.

7. The takeaway from the Sparty game is that the penalties continue to pile up. Not good.

8. Minny took care of a bad Nevada team. RB1 looking good in both games since his return. I figure he'll start to receive more carries (14 and 11 so far).

9. Tough loss for Washington in the Apple Cup. They had 450+ yards and no turnovers. Wild to score 19 points! Too many FG's.

10. Iowa gave up 21 points to Troy -- interesting -- Look deeper and we see a punt return and two 60+ yard passes

11. I am not surprised at all that Indiana beat a bad UCLA team. Did I see pure domination? No. Very, very impressive.

12. Northwestern plated EIU. We have an AJ Henning sighting!

13. Maryland with a dd win over the Cavs. Weird game all-around. Virginia did absolutely nothing in the 2nd half, longest drive was their last one playing hurry-up. Nice bounce back Terps.


Michigan and Arkansas State Recap Plus General UM Thoughts via Reno:

The score was 28-3 in the 4th when Michigan went deeper into the reserves and Arky State basically compiled half their yards on the next two drives (139 of 280)...

The first few Michigan drives were interesting on offense and then they found their groove on the ground -- as they should have versus this opponent...

Again, Mullings should be RB1. Yes, Don had some excellent runs, but for your every down back Mullings is a beast. He is Haskins 2.0. Use him correctly...

We're at the point of giving up seeing Edwards used properly. He should be a threat at multiple spots on the field other than up the middle on 1st down. We have seen his explosive nature in the passing game and yet they refuse. So dumbfounded by this.

Loveland was hurt a few times in the middle of the game. Nothing serious, I would hope he is back.

Marlin Klein has had a lot of hype and showed what he can do with Colston out of the game. This guy is fast, really fast for a TE. He'll play on Sundays. I'd love to see him play with Loveland.

Warren never had a pass hit the ground -- 11 for 11 to his team and 3-3 to Arky State. He can throw but goodness does he make mistakes. Orji time, as announced 24 hours ago. This is a whole different dimension. I'd rather we did this vs Arky St so he'd have reps prior to playing a ranked conference foe.

Defensively, much better vs ASU but the fact is these guys need to clean up the little things. I am not a fan of this defensive coaching staff. Wink is exactly what I feared initially -- too aggressive.

Kicking game, FG wise, excellent. Punting, I believe they have made a change.



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Onward...

Friday night, under the lights, in Lincoln should be a fun affair. Two well-coached teams here, spread and total seem on-point. Pure future capping game for myself.

Marshall Marshall Marshall heads into Columbus... this feels like an over game to be honest. I would have this more like 54.5.

The Hoosiers host Charlotte. Heck of a comeback last week by Charlotte. I thought this team would progress a bit better under Biff but they have been underwhelming to me so far this season. Letdown for the Hoosiers after the big win out west? Pretty big number here. I'd look for a slow Hoosier start and then to perhaps jump in on the game.

Maryland hosts Villanova after the big win last week. I'll have to check in with the FCS guys on this one.

Penn State host a reeling Kent State. You already know I like overs in this game -- team total, game whatever. This is a PERFECT spot to win some PSU money from Mr. Peanut after the last outing in Happy Valley cost the alums a few bucks two weeks ago.

UCLA heads into Baton Rouge to continue what should be a torturous season. Yes, this number is much bigger than one would expect -- but sometimes spreads tell the story. Looks like South Bama and then a bye for LSU after this one. No lookahead issues. I'm not sure how to bet this yet, but where there is a will, there is a way!

Rutgers and VPI is an interesting game. While we've won some Rutgers money this year they have shown some leaks at times. I still trust coach more than most. Need to cap the Hokies a bit more but very intrigued by this match.

Very happy to see Northwestern play a real team this week. Sorry Academic Bowl for the oversight. The Huskies limp in after a tough loss to Wazzu. I don't have much of a feel for the Wildcats yet to be honest, so tough to cap this from a lean perspective. That is good though.

Iowa and Minnesota playing in September seems sacrilegious. The Iowa defense is tough as always. Trenches game here, 3 yards and a cloud of turf kind of game. Minnesota has to be able to run the ball somewhat here. We have seen Iowa give up some big plays in the air this year.

Michigan State at Boston College is probably the game of the week in the conference for me. We'll know a lot more about MSU after this game. Chiles is fun, but prone to some risky play. The trenches are still a question mark for me with MSU, although both have performed solid so far. BC with a tough game in the SEC last week -- obviously have one of our favorite players to watch in Castellanos. Fun game here. My initial lean here is an over. I see 20's both ways for sure.

Purdue tries to come back from that ambush and traveling to Corvalis isn't exactly the recipe for success. Meanwhile, the Beavers got whacked pretty good as well. Does this line seem a bit low? Maybe I am off in my capping of each team.

Michigan and USC thoughts to come in a post of it's own mid-week...
 
Nebraska D had their worst outing of the season, which wasn't all that surprising to me. Obv letdown spot for them after the Colorado game. UNI is very well coached, and they have a few pretty good players, especially their RB. We didn't tackle worth a shit all night, which kept them in manageable down and distance situations that they did a good job of picking up, especially in the first half. D stiffened when they needed too though. Nebraska did whatever they wanted on offense all night. Some interesting play calls kept the score from being higher than it was. Rhule basically said we do some stuff just so future opponents have to practice it.

Should be another raucous crowd in Lincoln on Friday night. I like the good guys to cover here. Think we win something like 31-14 or so.
 
Few early leans:
Kent St +49 vs PSU, I like PSU long term but no way they waste much energy here likely a 35+ point win but under 7 TD's (DK)
UCLA/LSU over 56.5 LSU an over machine
Iowa -2.5 vs Minny, think Iowa will grind out at least a 6 point W
 
Few early leans:
Kent St +49 vs PSU, I like PSU long term but no way they waste much energy here likely a 35+ point win but under 7 TD's (DK)
UCLA/LSU over 56.5 LSU an over machine
Iowa -2.5 vs Minny, think Iowa will grind out at least a 6 point W
Just noticed this, and locking this in:
Kent State over 0.5 TD's +205 on DK
 
Little prop play for you all.

Dowdell over 48.5 rush yards. He's clearly the number 1 RB right now. In the only game that mattered, he got well over half the RB carries and went 17 for 74. Neal for Kansas, a similar player, went 14 for 101 against the Illini.
I'm here for THIS
 
USC and UM thoughts in full tomorrow late night...

One tidbit... I'd lean towards Loveland NOT playing, as of now. Bummer.

But, shall see.
 
Nebraska D had their worst outing of the season, which wasn't all that surprising to me. Obv letdown spot for them after the Colorado game. UNI is very well coached, and they have a few pretty good players, especially their RB. We didn't tackle worth a shit all night, which kept them in manageable down and distance situations that they did a good job of picking up, especially in the first half. D stiffened when they needed too though. Nebraska did whatever they wanted on offense all night. Some interesting play calls kept the score from being higher than it was. Rhule basically said we do some stuff just so future opponents have to practice it.

Should be another raucous crowd in Lincoln on Friday night. I like the good guys to cover here. Think we win something like 31-14 or so.
huskers look better on the oline this year with by and large the same players. Don't see that very often. could say same thing for iowa - ran for 200 on iowa state. shoot how does minnesota cover this spread.

usc d looked massively improved vs lsu. think they may be a playoff team.
 
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huskers look better on the oline this year with by and large the same players. Don't see that very often. could say same thing for iowa - ran for 200 on iowa state. shoot how does minnesota cover this spread.

usc d looked massively improved vs lsu. think they may be a playoff team.
Agree on USC. Much more inclined to play under than a side in that game. Think it could be a pretty ugly game to watch.
 
Going with USC.
Orgi at QB not gonna do it in my mind.
Now if Wolv's would slide Warren in as, say, wr or rb with Orgi at qb and mix it up to keep USC honest and guessing........naw, they wouldn't.

Rutgers as a dog looks good.
 
Little prop play for you all.

Dowdell over 48.5 rush yards. He's clearly the number 1 RB right now. In the only game that mattered, he got well over half the RB carries and went 17 for 74. Neal for Kansas, a similar player, went 14 for 101 against the Illini.
I'd say (conservatively) that if he gets 10 carries he'll get over that number. He probably won't even need that many. Grimes really screwed up not giving Neal more than 14 carries.
 
Bad content this week, my apologies -- just a really busy week work and life --

Saw on Wednesday via a solid source that Loveland likely was out (no update since)

The recruiting site guys say he has a chance, we'll see .

My issue with UM is Wink. He simply is too aggressive for my liking. This is the type of QB that could have some huge plays due to the aggressive blitzing nature. The talent is there on the UM first team defense, to be a top 10 D in the country. I simply do not think the style or the coaching lives up to that.

I do think reading enough of the tea leaves and coach-speak we see Mullings earlier and more often. Ideally he carries 18+ times and Edwards 12-13 times. If that happens, more than likely this is a UM win.

Must succeed in the running game.

Let's look back at LSU vs USC...

LSU offense:

1st drive, methodically down the field, 13 plays and over 7 minutes to be SOD at the 3 yard line

2nd drive, 8 more plays for 31 yards before a punt

3rd drive, 9 plays for a TD

4th drive, 47 yards and kicked a FG

HALFTIME

5th drive, first 3 and out

6th drive, 7 plays for a TD

7th drive, 5 plays for 23 and a punt

8th drive, went backwards to punt

9th drive, 61 yards leading to a FG with 1:47 left

10th drive, 4 seconds left, one play picked off.

Very solid 1st half for LSU...should of had more points

2nd half brought a few stops in the middle section but also two nice drives.

LSU had 420 yards or so of offense in a game that had a moving clock for a lot of it...

I'm not totally on board with this 'Championship' defense that USC has.

Will the addition of Lynn prove to help? Sure.

Are they a team that will be shutting down opponents on the regular? Not in my opinion.

Two KEYS for UM...

Hold the ball on offense, use the clock and be creative in situations not expected.

Make this an ugly game that is close. Lincoln teams do not always react the best in these situations as he becomes impatient on offense.

More late night.... still pondering the play here...
 
Since this the 1st week I’m really reading all this stuff it still so strange to me to see all these west coast teams in your recap, 😂

@B.A.R. Seems like the prevailing wisdom that Michigan dc can’t help himself and will continue being blitz crazy this week like he has been all season (think I saw they blitzing close to 50% the time!). Everything I’ve seen and heard bout usc qb Moss is that he reads defenses very well and gets the ball out super fast (2.1 seconds on avg I believe), I’m sure you know where I’m going here, Moss passing total is at 260ish and just feels like if Michigan continues to dial up blitzes Riley and Moss be kicking their chops!! This where I have trouble at times cause I think to myself wouldn’t a reasonable thing to do here be stop blitzing and make them go on 10-12 play drives while letting your front 4 get after usc oline. Thing is often times what I think is logical apparently doesn’t cross some these coaches minds! I’d love to sit down with patriots coaching staff and ask them the thought process behind last nights redic offensive game plan! lol. So does Michigan continue to be blitz crazy you think? If so I don’t see how Moss doesn’t throw for well over 260.
 
I'd say (conservatively) that if he gets 10 carries he'll get over that number. He probably won't even need that many. Grimes really screwed up not giving Neal more than 14 carries.

Big time steam on it. Hopefully, everyone bet it early.
 
They've been really, really bad for at least a decade before Rhule came along
I know, but seems somewhere along the line they could've snuck out a win over shitty #18th ranked Minnesota team or the likes.
 
Now, line was down to 5.5 when this was sent to me after 5:30 today.

I'm debating that total though. Marsh is a stud. Big loss.
 
Now, line was down to 5.5 when this was sent to me after 5:30 today.

I'm debating that total though. Marsh is a stud. Big loss.
I haven't watched a second of MSU this season, do they need the WRs to beat BC? Curious because I want to bet on them after what I think was a physical abuse of BC last week by the Tigers. I do love the QB which I can't remember the last time thinking that about MSU. Seems like he can make plays even without the starting WR core
 
If you like USC, now is the time to fire on that bet.

Line is -4 right now at 2am.
Where is the total?

I'm doing my own mental lines right now and don't want any input from actual lines but I do like under anything above 42
 
Where is the total?

I'm doing my own mental lines right now and don't want any input from actual lines but I do like under anything above 42
44.

Michigan wants a low scoring, tight game.
 
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Was able to get 44.5 at ESPNbet, it's 44 everywhere else I looked

Here's to a shitty, ugly game in AA

Really think it all falls on Michigan defensive gane plan, if they keep blitzing at the rate they have been to start the year I think they making a huge mistake and Moss will pick them apart, kid reads defenses really well and gets the ball out fast, think bltzing would play right into usc hands and don’t think it ever comes close to getting home with his avg release time being 2.1 seconds! Now if Michigan dc had any damn sense they would go back to how they played the last however many years and drop 7, make Moss take more time to find a open guy, and let the front 4 win against usc oline which you would think they should be able to do! The problem is it seems to be the prevailing wisdom that wink Martindale can’t help himself and is gonna keep blitzing. That a terrible idea imo. It would ve great if I was say wanting to play a moss passing yard prop tho!! Of course even if Michigan does continue w the crazy high number of blitzes and usc does pick the blitz apart it doesn’t exactly mean for sure it goes over, I have like 0 idea what Michigan offense will contribute. Could be 31-10., reallly feels crazy to think Michigan takes another ass kicking in the big house but maybe it time to tell ourselves when Harbaugh left so did the culture?

know harcourt wouldnf let this dipshit blitz 50% the time in this game! I assume Michigan still has nfl players on their d-line so I don’t really understand all the blitzing? I’m not totally against bringing extra guys, sometimes I’m alll for it but if you have a front 4 that can more than likely beat 90% the offensive lines they go up against it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense! If you drop those blutzing players into coverage the qb obviously gonna take more time to find a open man, your d-line beats a guy and you have more pressure than you were getting sending extra guys and letting the qb just pick apart the holes you providing!! It seems doubly so in this game with an offensive head coach and a qb who processes and gets rid of the ball very quickly. I might just sit at casino for this one and if Michigan comes out blitzing start making live plays on usc to score!

Throw in the kind of offense Michigan been for the last however many years it really seems like being high risk high reward blitz happy d does not line up at all with the other side the call. Michigan supposed to grind teams down, making them go on 10-12 play drives against a bunch of future nfl types isn’t easy for hardly any offense. Keeps the game low and ugly just the way they like it. Not sure what all went on for Wink to now be the dc other than I’m pretty sure he been part of lot the ravens staffs and ties into that pipeline Harbaugh started using for his dc’s, but there a reason wink don’t have a job in the nfl, apparently he just can’t stop himself from dialing up way more blitzes than ya need!! I dunno if he can change his stripes or if the now head coach has whatever it is it takes to tell this dude he can’t be blitzing all day! Wish I knew cause Moss getting his yards feels like a fortune conclusion if Michigan blitzing anywhere close to 50% the time.
 
Really think it all falls on Michigan defensive gane plan, if they keep blitzing at the rate they have been to start the year I think they making a huge mistake and Moss will pick them apart, kid reads defenses really well and gets the ball out fast, think bltzing would play right into usc hands and don’t think it ever comes close to getting home with his avg release time being 2.1 seconds! Now if Michigan dc had any damn sense they would go back to how they played the last however many years and drop 7, make Moss take more time to find a open guy, and let the front 4 win against usc oline which you would think they should be able to do! The problem is it seems to be the prevailing wisdom that wink Martindale can’t help himself and is gonna keep blitzing. That a terrible idea imo. It would ve great if I was say wanting to play a moss passing yard prop tho!! Of course even if Michigan does continue w the crazy high number of blitzes and usc does pick the blitz apart it doesn’t exactly mean for sure it goes over, I have like 0 idea what Michigan offense will contribute. Could be 31-10., reallly feels crazy to think Michigan takes another ass kicking in the big house but maybe it time to tell ourselves when Harbaugh left so did the culture?

know harcourt wouldnf let this dipshit blitz 50% the time in this game! I assume Michigan still has nfl players on their d-line so I don’t really understand all the blitzing? I’m not totally against bringing extra guys, sometimes I’m alll for it but if you have a front 4 that can more than likely beat 90% the offensive lines they go up against it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense! If you drop those blutzing players into coverage the qb obviously gonna take more time to find a open man, your d-line beats a guy and you have more pressure than you were getting sending extra guys and letting the qb just pick apart the holes you providing!! It seems doubly so in this game with an offensive head coach and a qb who processes and gets rid of the ball very quickly. I might just sit at casino for this one and if Michigan comes out blitzing start making live plays on usc to score!

Throw in the kind of offense Michigan been for the last however many years it really seems like being high risk high reward blitz happy d does not line up at all with the other side the call. Michigan supposed to grind teams down, making them go on 10-12 play drives against a bunch of future nfl types isn’t easy for hardly any offense. Keeps the game low and ugly just the way they like it. Not sure what all went on for Wink to now be the dc other than I’m pretty sure he been part of lot the ravens staffs and ties into that pipeline Harbaugh started using for his dc’s, but there a reason wink don’t have a job in the nfl, apparently he just can’t stop himself from dialing up way more blitzes than ya need!! I dunno if he can change his stripes or if the now head coach has whatever it is it takes to tell this dude he can’t be blitzing all day! Wish I knew cause Moss getting his yards feels like a fortune conclusion if Michigan blitzing anywhere close to 50% the time.
I'm betting on a slow pace. Like I expect at least 2 9-minute drives
 
I'm betting on a slow pace. Like I expect at least 2 9-minute drives
Really think it up to Michigan dc. Obviously Michigan offense could have few of those just running it down usc throats. If wink would get away from the blitz it could def force usc info longer more methodical drives who knows if they even finish with 7? Just think if this dude keeps up the 50% blitz rate they get picked apart. We both looking at it for different things, I think just cause he did fuck yo and keep blitzing yes usc will own them that doesn’t mean jt has to go over, think it means Moss goes over his passing total tho!
 
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