B1G Week #12...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Three weeks left in the conference season!

Nice win by USC last Friday night -- offense was humming all night long, both in the air and on the ground --
Oregon's win in Iowa City was quite gutty in those conditions versus a tough defense. The guys noted this in the in-game thread, but 36 runs for 261 was highly impressive!

It was a slow first quarter for Ohio State, but they poured it on in the 2nd quarter. The running game was a bit better, but I would expect more versus that defense. Again, that is the big question once we head into December. The 2+ month "pre-season" marches on...

Maybe the ugliest win of the season was administered by the Wisconsin Badgers. They amassed just over 200 yards of offense and completed 6 of 18 passes via four different passers. Incredible defense!

I'll be honest -- following the fumble right before halftime and the score reaching 20-7 in the 2nd half -- I thought the Hoosiers were coasting home in Happy Valley! Wow, what a 4th quarter effort by PSU. They did what they needed to do to win before Mendoza made some incredible plays on that drive. The thing is, PSU was defending him properly inside the RZ on that drive -- blitz and hope he throws it quickly. He was. Even that last pass was quick and forced. Incredible catch. I believe the best I have seen in CFB is when you combine the play plus the moment!

Maryland and Rutgers were a great example of what happens when two bad teams play. Close game with a lot of yardage in the 1st half. We know Rutgers' defense is awful! Yet, they held Maryland to 3 second-half points. Raymond with 240 on the ground, and the Terps couldn't break 100 yards passing! Speaking of 100 yards, Maryland was held under that number in the 2h for total offense. Great ball control for a maligned Rutgers team.

Nice win for the Huskers out in Pasadena. New QB 1 averaged 13.7 ypp and Emmett ran the ball very well once again. Pretty even box score, other than Nebraska passes were connecting longer than UCLA passes.


Onto a B1G Week #12


A Friday night affair as Minnesota visits Oregon. The Gophers have struggled recently. Iowa beat the brakes off them, and they should have lost at home to Michigan State. A short week off a physical game at Iowa doesn't inspire confidence in seeing the best of Oregon here. They also have USC on deck.

Michigan heads to Wrigley to take on the Wildcats! Last week was a much-needed bye week for the Wolverines. The injuries were mounting, and frankly, the youngest team in the conference needed a few teaching moments. Last year, they came out of the second bye week quite rejuvenated and faced this same Northwestern team. This is on the road, though, where they have struggled so far this year. This should be a low-scoring game, and frankly, I find this point spread puzzling. Whenever I think a number is too high, it's generally that way for a reason. More to come on this one.
Speaking of USC, they host Iowa on Saturday. Big lookahead, but they need to stay focused here. The name of the game will be protecting the ball and making Iowa go 70+ yards to score. I am sure USC saw the Ducks success last week on the ground, especially late, and will hope to replicate that.

I am sure most of you have read @bookieassassin thread and seen his Michigan State bet. I fully support that wager. This is a great situational spot. Penn State has to be down in the dumps after last week. Add in that they had another physical game the week before vs OSU, and they have to be feeling it a bit. Apparently, Coach Smith has not named a starting QB for this week....


“Similarly, we’re gonna let that continue to go through the week,” Jonathan Smith said. “Again, both of those guys’ skill sets present some positive things. So, we’re going to let that play out again this week.”

The new kid was excellent at Minnesota despite heavy pressure at times. This makes no sense to even debate things. Shall see. I would assume he'll do the right thing.

The Maryland 2nd-half tailspin continues, and the Illini have to be licking their chops at facing this defense after seeing what Rutgers did last week. I'll be looking for a situational Team Total here.

Tough last week for the Huskies. A perfect remedy comes to town in the name of the Boilermakers! I hope that the Washington team comes out a bit flat so I can find a spot on the live market to bet them. That is very possible with last week's loss and the lack of a big-time opponent on the other sidelines.

Prime time in Columbus for the Bruins and Buckeyes. Rinse and repeat. Look for situational Team Totals for and against. This UCLA total though, will be coming in at under 10, so we'll have to be picky.

More to come in a few days -- looking at the Wrigley game some more and hopefully we have some clarity about QB 1 in East Lansing. I don't hate taking the 7.5 in that game now, for what it's worth.
 
Looking at the Northwestern defense....

They are really solid versus the pass, statistically.

They can be had on the ground a little bit.

Michigan will need to run the ball a lot tomorrow to control the game.

Jordan Marshall Rush prop is ranging between 110-115 or so. Plenty of respect on that one.

Michigan Rush defense is excellent and will need to be as the Cats offense is successful mostly on the ground. They aren't a good passing team and have a turnover problem this year.

Michigan injuries continue to be an issue but I believe they'll have one of the LBs back.

True easy cap of who wins rush battle and who keeps a cleaner sheet -- wins the game.

Fans should be 50/50 or so in Wrigley.
 
Leans:

Michigan Northwestern Under 41

Michigan State +7

Michigan State / Penn State Under 49

Illinois TT Over

Wash TT Over (live stalk)

Ucla TT Under (live stalk)
 
Last thought here...

Why is the total in East Lansing so high? Yes, I understand the putrid MSU defense but they have been a bit better the last few weeks.

PSU defense has been just fine this year, except out at UCLA in the 1st half.

IMO.

Definitely will be keeping an eye there.
 
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