Apologies for not having much in the thread this week. Working under the weather unfortunately. Also, with so much uncertainty about injuries, it's been tough to both get a feel and to get a lot of excitement.
Just about all the injured guys traveled for Mich. JH said that they must practice in order to play, so take that for what it is. This isn't just about the RBs, 5-6 other key contributors have been hurt the last month or so.
This game will come down to the trenches. Generally in this series, the team that wins the running battle, wins the game.
What must Mich do to win this game?
-Rush for 200 plus yards.
- Efficient in Red Zone
-Creativity in the passing game
- Pressure Stroud.
These seem all self explanatory. Let's go to the second point first ...
Michigan's RZ woes, with regards to scoring TDs, is well documented. If their kicking FGs, they will likely lose handily.
On the last point, they have to pressure Stroud. He's a great passer when he sits back there all day. He absolutely hates pressure and doesn't handle it all that well.
One add here ... Michigan hasn't played from behind much. If Ohio State gets out double digits somewhere in the first half, I'd start looking at live numbers. Michigan isn't built at this point for large comebacks.
Who's got the MOST pressure on them this game? Ryan Day. If he something loses to Mich again this year, he's totally on the hot seat. Next year, they go back to AA to face what should be the most talented team UM has had in awhile.
Now, there will be a lot of debate after this game about the loser perhaps getting into the playoffs. Michigan gets trashed for their schedule, and rightfully so. They took away a UCLA road game due to monetary issues. They will never NOT play 7 home games. Too much money at stake...
With that being said, neither team has a great schedule.
Notre Dame is a "name" school and starting to equate themselves better. Week one though, they could score on anyone. Change the team name to something like "Purdue" and the SOS narrative changes a bit.
Each Big Ten team plays 3 crossover games.
This year Michigan played...
Illinois
Nebraska
Iowa
Ohio State played...
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Iowa
Slight edge to Michigan here...
Ooc, Michigan played 2 bad teams and one bowl eligible team(UConn).
Ooc, Ohio State played Notre Dame, Toledo and Arkansas St..
That's two bowi eligible.
Obviously, you can look at how a team was playing or current standing here.
Obviously edge to OSU here, but not exactly murderers row here. Toledo was brutal at that time.
Another note when getting into SOS in general... Big Ten plays 9 games. SEC for example plays 8 games so they can get an extra patsie in for example.
Now, the Big Ten is not good this year. That helps no one at all. Thankfully expansion will clear up having such an average West opponent in Indy next week.
Looking at CFB rankings, the quandary of where that put OSU is interesting. They have losses to #2 and #3. The loss to #2 is one they easily could have won. They also blew out an SEC team on the road. That doesn't get much respect (perhaps deservingly so).
Back to The Game...random thoughts...
As always, I'll be interested in the officials. Just please call a clean game. Last year was pretty solid overall (except for a key catch on 4th that neither got a TV replay or even a replay on FOX). We simply cannot have what happened in 2016 with a few "fans" officiating a game, slapping asses and celebrating. Just be fair, and CONSISTENT both ways. Do not get flag happy either, let's enjoy the game.
How many passes will Michigan drop? This has been so bad lately. For every bad JJ pass, some perfect ones get dropped killing drives.
You'll see some wrinkles this week from the offense that you haven't seen all year. Shall see if these are effective. Go back to 2017, Michigan starts JOK at QB, gets an early lead and had a drive to win it at the end. They schemed guys open all day with a terrible QB. Give us even an average QB and the win was there with Jim's worst team (injuries, cohesion). The other fun part of that game, Haskins came in and I knew that was bad news right there. That was the beginning...
My goal for Michigan is to get to halftime within 7 points. Jesse Minters 2h adjustments this year have been OUTSTANDING. He's been amazing. Last week was the first time he got his lunch ate in a 3rd quarter.
I said earlier in the week my only recommendation would be OSU at 7/7.5. I still lean that way but will simply live bet. I need to see the gameplan from OSU defense and also how the injured players look (both ways).
Enjoy the game, embrace it. Hopefully a classic... Had some fleeting memories of 2006 last night. The buildup that week was like no other. Remember, they moved it to 3:30, due to the stakes at hand.
Lastly, this game brings out stars... Whether that is a player who hasn't done much all year, or a guy who elevates themselves to the next level.
Lastly #2, Michigan finally started taking this game seriously basically the January before in 2021. They simply hadn't had the hate/motivation that OSU has for a few decades. It proved to work out well. On the flip, maybe OSU got a bit complacent under Day. They are back this year to concentrating on The Game every single day.
Nothing better in college football than The Game.
Enjoy.
