B1G Championship -- Michigan vs Iowa Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hello all,

We have arrived for the last BTCG in this format in Indianapolis. Thank goodness. The last three years with Purdue and Iowa has been painful enough, right? Heck, Purdue had assistance from another school last year and still lost by three touchdowns. With that being said, I would never underestimate ANYTHING from happening here. A good defense travels, and a 10-2 record is indicative of that for the Iowa Hawkeyes...

This was a predicted BTCG matchup this summer and one I know Iowa QB Cade McNamara had wanted. Unfortunately, he is sitting this one out, but he is helping out the staff as much as he can due to his years at Michigan. Hopefully there are no injury concerns with this advanced scouting Cade brings to the table...

Moving on, Cade is an asshat, and the definition of a selfish player. I'll always love what he brought to the table for 14 months at Michigan. The following off-season into the fall and ever since then he has shown himself to be cocky and about himself. That is too bad, he could have been one of those really memorable college QB'S. The type that won't ever be in the NFL but are just winners and team guys on the college level. Selfishness took that opportunity away.

Back to the players that are here -- I will admit that I try to watch as little Iowa football as I can. The defense is phenomenal, but that offense is brutal. The QB in place since the Cade injury is the definition of inaccurate. Let us take a look at this game log:

MSU 11-27
PUR 6-21
WIS 6-14
MIN 10-28
NU 10-15
RU 20-31
ILL 19-29
NEB 11-28

Yes, he had a nice stretch to start November. With that being said, we are still looking at 48% this season since that MSU game.

He also cannot run. His long run this year is 12 yards and he has -78 yards total on the ground (2 sacks a game since MSU don't help those numbers).

We know how Iowa wins games though -- run the ball, tough defense, field position and capitalize on turnovers. Friday was a great example of that. They waited for Nebraska to make the big mistake and went down for the winning FG. That is Iowa football. This is @HUNT favorite style of play, in case you didn't know.

So, how does this team keep this a game? They'll need to get creative on offense and catch Michigan off-guard. Simply put, empty the playbook. Is there anything in there? We'll see.

I expect that Michigan sits Will Johnson and readies him for the semifinals. There is simply no reason for him to be out there on his notoriously bad ankle in this game. I am not calling this a guaranteed win whatsoever, but I think versus this passing attack you can go a bit deeper into the secondary. Hopefully, if this happens, it does not bit them in the ass.

My biggest thing in this game the past two years has been motivation. You spend all year gearing up for Ohio State -- and then face what would be a 3rd or 4th place team if they were in your division. Luckily, Michigan has risen to the occasion both years. I expect they will have something different on offense. More Orji? I certainly hope so! Gimme more Mullings as well. Hunt thinks a lot of short and quick stuff. Enter Semaj Morgan.

Back to motivation -- Coach is back, and they have something planned for the postgame ceremony with Small Tits. Hopefully this is epic.

Injury-wise, I spoke of Will J already. Obviously, they lost a first round pick to a terrible leg break last week. The one thing that did was shuffle a line that has not performed to expectations, and they played excellent the last 25 minutes versus OSU. We'll see if that carries over.

We all know the Iowa totals as of late. This one seemingly has risen a bit since opening. We'll see how it closes, but I think we'll see a slower start and things to start pouring on more in the 3rd quarter.

First gut reaction is this -- Michigan 27-10

I do think Iowa either gets a short-field or has a big play to get a TD. They score 10 here, in my opinion. So, I am capping from there. I think the 23.5 is a pretty hefty tariff here.

I am not recommending a play, as of yet, but those are my early thoughts. Again, I am capping from 10 Iowa points and going from there.
 
B.A.R. said:
Hello all,

We have arrived for the last BTCG in this format in Indianapolis. Thank goodness. The last three years with Purdue and Iowa has been painful enough, right? Heck, Purdue had assistance from another school last year and still lost by three touchdowns. With that being said, I would never underestimate ANYTHING from happening here. A good defense travels, and a 10-2 record is indicative of that for the Iowa Hawkeyes...

This was a predicted BTCG matchup this summer and one I know Iowa QB Cade McNamara had wanted. Unfortunately, he is sitting this one out, but he is helping out the staff as much as he can due to his years at Michigan. Hopefully there are no injury concerns with this advanced scouting Cade brings to the table...

Moving on, Cade is an asshat, and the definition of a selfish player. I'll always love what he brought to the table for 14 months at Michigan. The following off-season into the fall and ever since then he has shown himself to be cocky and about himself. That is too bad, he could have been one of those really memorable college QB'S. The type that won't ever be in the NFL but are just winners and team guys on the college level. Selfishness took that opportunity away.

Back to the players that are here -- I will admit that I try to watch as little Iowa football as I can. The defense is phenomenal, but that offense is brutal. The QB in place since the Cade injury is the definition of inaccurate. Let us take a look at this game log:

MSU 11-27
PUR 6-21
WIS 6-14
MIN 10-28
NU 10-15
RU 20-31
ILL 19-29
NEB 11-28

Yes, he had a nice stretch to start November. With that being said, we are still looking at 48% this season since that MSU game.

He also cannot run. His long run this year is 12 yards and he has -78 yards total on the ground (2 sacks a game since MSU don't help those numbers).

We know how Iowa wins games though -- run the ball, tough defense, field position and capitalize on turnovers. Friday was a great example of that. They waited for Nebraska to make the big mistake and went down for the winning FG. That is Iowa football. This is @HUNT favorite style of play, in case you didn't know.

So, how does this team keep this a game? They'll need to get creative on offense and catch Michigan off-guard. Simply put, empty the playbook. Is there anything in there? We'll see.

I expect that Michigan sits Will Johnson and readies him for the semifinals. There is simply no reason for him to be out there on his notoriously bad ankle in this game. I am not calling this a guaranteed win whatsoever, but I think versus this passing attack you can go a bit deeper into the secondary. Hopefully, if this happens, it does not bit them in the ass.

My biggest thing in this game the past two years has been motivation. You spend all year gearing up for Ohio State -- and then face what would be a 3rd or 4th place team if they were in your division. Luckily, Michigan has risen to the occasion both years. I expect they will have something different on offense. More Orji? I certainly hope so! Gimme more Mullings as well. Hunt thinks a lot of short and quick stuff. Enter Semaj Morgan.

Back to motivation -- Coach is back, and they have something planned for the postgame ceremony with Small Tits. Hopefully this is epic.

Injury-wise, I spoke of Will J already. Obviously, they lost a first round pick to a terrible leg break last week. The one thing that did was shuffle a line that has not performed to expectations, and they played excellent the last 25 minutes versus OSU. We'll see if that carries over.

We all know the Iowa totals as of late. This one seemingly has risen a bit since opening. We'll see how it closes, but I think we'll see a slower start and things to start pouring on more in the 3rd quarter.

First gut reaction is this -- Michigan 27-10

I do think Iowa either gets a short-field or has a big play to get a TD. They score 10 here, in my opinion. So, I am capping from there. I think the 23.5 is a pretty hefty tariff here.

I am not recommending a play, as of yet, but those are my early thoughts. Again, I am capping from 10 Iowa points and going from there.
Click to expand...
This was a predicted BTCG matchup this summer and one I know Iowa QB Cade McNamara had wanted. Unfortunately, he is sitting this one out, but he is helping out the staff as much as he can due to his years at Michigan. Hopefully there are no injury concerns with this advanced scouting Cade brings to the table...

Moving on, Cade is an asshat, and the definition of a selfish player. I'll always love what he brought to the table for 14 months at Michigan. The following off-season into the fall and ever since then he has shown himself to be cocky and about himself. That is too bad, he could have been one of those really memorable college QB'S. The type that won't ever be in the NFL but are just winners and team guys on the college level. Selfishness took that opportunity away.

 
Solid write up as usual. Thank you.

The more I think about this game and the closer we get to the end of the week I think Michigan just destroys these guys. A couple of reasons,

-Harbaugh is back
-B10 Commish will be in attendance
-A big final fuck you to the B10
-Cade is a biiitch

I can see the team playing loose and free, especially if they go up early.

Seen Iowa almost every week, a first for me actually...they are the Jets of CFB...super awful on offense with absolutely no speed. Their oline is average at best but will get manhandled by Michigan. Much like they did against PSU.

Solid defense obviously, great run d, pass d can be had, they've just played some awful qbs lately. Michigan getting 28-31 keeps popping off for me. I'm not so sure Iowa can score 10 Reno...that will be the best part of the game, to see how much Iowa can score. I probably jinxed it all..oh well.
 
HUNT said:
Solid write up as usual. Thank you.

The more I think about this game and the closer we get to the end of the week I think Michigan just destroys these guys. A couple of reasons,

-Harbaugh is back
-B10 Commish will be in attendance
-A big final fuck you to the B10
-Cade is a biiitch

I can see the team playing loose and free, especially if they go up early.

Seen Iowa almost every week, a first for me actually...they are the Jets of CFB...super awful on offense with absolutely no speed. Their oline is average at best but will get manhandled by Michigan. Much like they did against PSU.

Solid defense obviously, great run d, pass d can be had, they've just played some awful qbs lately. Michigan getting 28-31 keeps popping off for me. I'm not so sure Iowa can score 10 Reno...that will be the best part of the game, to see how much Iowa can score. I probably jinxed it all..oh well.
Click to expand...
You've watched a lot of Iowa, so I will defer. Maybe it's 7 through 3 quarters.

That's my start though. That doesn't mean that I would play any Iowa TT overs lol.

Oh, for the record, I had over "live" last Friday at 23.5 BEFORE Nebraska hit the 66 yard TD.

So, yeah, at 10-7 at halftime I felt pretty good about that 2 unit bet

Then I felt good about OT after Iowa punted with a few minutes left.

(Insert facepalm).
 
Iowa is home team by the way.

This flips each year.

I'd expect like 65% minimum Michigan fans.

Think you'll see all whites for the uni style Mich.
 
A little off topic, but will the B1G stay with divisions next year? If not, seems like there's a good chance that Michigan and Ohio St play back to back weekends if they don't move The Game, right?
 
divisions are done.

Iowa QB was doing okay last week, played pretty well in the first half. In the second half, he took a huge hit and was in rough shape trying to get to the sidelines. Was awful after that. Looked like ribs to me.
 
cubsker said:
divisions are done.

Iowa QB was doing okay last week, played pretty well in the first half. In the second half, he took a huge hit and was in rough shape trying to get to the sidelines. Was awful after that. Looked like ribs to me.
Click to expand...
He has the look of a mid-range Nascar driver
 
B.A.R. said:
Hello all,

We have arrived for the last BTCG in this format in Indianapolis. Thank goodness. The last three years with Purdue and Iowa has been painful enough, right? Heck, Purdue had assistance from another school last year and still lost by three touchdowns. With that being said, I would never underestimate ANYTHING from happening here. A good defense travels, and a 10-2 record is indicative of that for the Iowa Hawkeyes...

This was a predicted BTCG matchup this summer and one I know Iowa QB Cade McNamara had wanted. Unfortunately, he is sitting this one out, but he is helping out the staff as much as he can due to his years at Michigan. Hopefully there are no injury concerns with this advanced scouting Cade brings to the table...

Moving on, Cade is an asshat, and the definition of a selfish player. I'll always love what he brought to the table for 14 months at Michigan. The following off-season into the fall and ever since then he has shown himself to be cocky and about himself. That is too bad, he could have been one of those really memorable college QB'S. The type that won't ever be in the NFL but are just winners and team guys on the college level. Selfishness took that opportunity away.

Back to the players that are here -- I will admit that I try to watch as little Iowa football as I can. The defense is phenomenal, but that offense is brutal. The QB in place since the Cade injury is the definition of inaccurate. Let us take a look at this game log:

MSU 11-27
PUR 6-21
WIS 6-14
MIN 10-28
NU 10-15
RU 20-31
ILL 19-29
NEB 11-28

Yes, he had a nice stretch to start November. With that being said, we are still looking at 48% this season since that MSU game.

He also cannot run. His long run this year is 12 yards and he has -78 yards total on the ground (2 sacks a game since MSU don't help those numbers).

We know how Iowa wins games though -- run the ball, tough defense, field position and capitalize on turnovers. Friday was a great example of that. They waited for Nebraska to make the big mistake and went down for the winning FG. That is Iowa football. This is @HUNT favorite style of play, in case you didn't know.

So, how does this team keep this a game? They'll need to get creative on offense and catch Michigan off-guard. Simply put, empty the playbook. Is there anything in there? We'll see.

I expect that Michigan sits Will Johnson and readies him for the semifinals. There is simply no reason for him to be out there on his notoriously bad ankle in this game. I am not calling this a guaranteed win whatsoever, but I think versus this passing attack you can go a bit deeper into the secondary. Hopefully, if this happens, it does not bit them in the ass.

My biggest thing in this game the past two years has been motivation. You spend all year gearing up for Ohio State -- and then face what would be a 3rd or 4th place team if they were in your division. Luckily, Michigan has risen to the occasion both years. I expect they will have something different on offense. More Orji? I certainly hope so! Gimme more Mullings as well. Hunt thinks a lot of short and quick stuff. Enter Semaj Morgan.

Back to motivation -- Coach is back, and they have something planned for the postgame ceremony with Small Tits. Hopefully this is epic.

Injury-wise, I spoke of Will J already. Obviously, they lost a first round pick to a terrible leg break last week. The one thing that did was shuffle a line that has not performed to expectations, and they played excellent the last 25 minutes versus OSU. We'll see if that carries over.

We all know the Iowa totals as of late. This one seemingly has risen a bit since opening. We'll see how it closes, but I think we'll see a slower start and things to start pouring on more in the 3rd quarter.

First gut reaction is this -- Michigan 27-10

I do think Iowa either gets a short-field or has a big play to get a TD. They score 10 here, in my opinion. So, I am capping from there. I think the 23.5 is a pretty hefty tariff here.

I am not recommending a play, as of yet, but those are my early thoughts. Again, I am capping from 10 Iowa points and going from there.
Click to expand...
You know an offense is bad when you feel like you are going out on a limb predicting them to score 10 points.
 
The spread will be decided by how many first downs Iowa gets in the first half. If they can run clock long enough, even without scoring, they can keep the game close. The Iowa punter is also really good so he can bail them out on a few of the 3-and-outs. It's a lot of points to cover when Michigan prefers to run and they are playing that run defense. Offense is so bad in that conference that the top four total defense for yards per play in the nation are all in that conference. Michigans offense isn't that explosive but they are efficient. Game will have what?, 120 - 130 plays? If Michigan doesn't score early the number will be really hard to cover.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
The spread will be decided by how many first downs Iowa gets in the first half. If they can run clock long enough, even without scoring, they can keep the game close. The Iowa punter is also really good so he can bail them out on a few of the 3-and-outs. It's a lot of points to cover when Michigan prefers to run and they are playing that run defense. Offense is so bad in that conference that the top four total defense for yards per play in the nation are all in that conference. Michigans offense isn't that explosive but they are efficient. Game will have what?, 120 - 130 plays? If Michigan doesn't score early the number will be really hard to cover.
Click to expand...
I've come to the conclusion that betting against the Michigan offense and betting against the Iowa defense are both massive losing propositions. Impossible to bet this game for me, Iowa team total over would be my only bet if I had it.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
The spread will be decided by how many first downs Iowa gets in the first half. If they can run clock long enough, even without scoring, they can keep the game close. The Iowa punter is also really good so he can bail them out on a few of the 3-and-outs. It's a lot of points to cover when Michigan prefers to run and they are playing that run defense. Offense is so bad in that conference that the top four total defense for yards per play in the nation are all in that conference. Michigans offense isn't that explosive but they are efficient. Game will have what?, 120 - 130 plays? If Michigan doesn't score early the number will be really hard to cover.
Click to expand...
I think that is extremely high for plays to be honest.

Michigan would like to pass more but with JJ injury and the OL issues they shuffled strategy in November.

Back to plays -- I expect this to be a quick game. I think 110 is the cap here. Running clock, no doubt.
 
KJ said:
I've come to the conclusion that betting against the Michigan offense and betting against the Iowa defense are both massive losing propositions. Impossible to bet this game for me, Iowa team total over would be my only bet if I had it.
Click to expand...

It's O/U 0.5 1H and 0.5 2H lol
 
  • Haha
Reactions: KJ
31-0 with the wheels falling off 2h vs. PSU. Only team close to UM that Iowa has played. All time weak schedule. This team would have been 4-8 in any other conference/division besides the thankfully soon to be gone B10 West.
 
Inspekdah said:
31-0 with the wheels falling off 2h vs. PSU. Only team close to UM that Iowa has played. All time weak schedule. This team would have been 4-8 in any other conference/division besides the thankfully soon to be gone B10 West.
Click to expand...
I'll extrapolate

They can't score on offense, thanks doctor obvious. But their defense is elite. Not just good, elite. So betting against them to score a TD is not recommended. Likely the defense scores or sets them up for a touchdown on offense.

Transitive stats are how you lose wagers. We all know how Iowa did against Penn St. So do every book known to man.
 
On principle alone I had to throw this game into half of a 13 pt teaser which have oddly enough been going well for me in college lately. Pretty seldom you can tease a dog to be higher than the teased total let alone the posted total. When this ends 21-0 I'll be bullshit!
 
B.A.R. said:
Mario's budget is incredible, that is for sure.
Click to expand...
He's always been a top recruiter. Saban sure as hell didn't have him on staff for his coaching. Doesn't really matter because Mario could be given the Niners roster and find a way to lose between 3 and 5 games.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
The spread will be decided by how many first downs Iowa gets in the first half. If they can run clock long enough, even without scoring, they can keep the game close. The Iowa punter is also really good so he can bail them out on a few of the 3-and-outs. It's a lot of points to cover when Michigan prefers to run and they are playing that run defense. Offense is so bad in that conference that the top four total defense for yards per play in the nation are all in that conference. Michigans offense isn't that explosive but they are efficient. Game will have what?, 120 - 130 plays? If Michigan doesn't score early the number will be really hard to cover.
Click to expand...
we know harbaugh will run it up late though
 
survive&advance said:
we know harbaugh will run it up late though
Click to expand...
I don't know.

They haven't had that mentality all year.

The first game JJ played into the middle of the 4th was versus Purdue. The purpose there was to get him acclimated before the last 3 games to a full 4 quarters.

Most of the first 8 games were 'quick' 4th quarters, low in possessions overall and mostly running.

The one time they scored late, was MSU... and that score only occured due to a MSU personal foul with under a minute left.

We'll see in this situation.
 
Here is a wild stat for this season, in the conference...

The key thing to remember here is that the win @PSU ultimately won the conference for UM. If they had lost that game, and won last week -- PSU won the tiebreaker.

Anyways,

Penn State finished the season #1 in TOTAL D and RUN D -- In the country!

Penn State gave up 836 TOTAL rushing yards in 12 games.

Michigan had 227 of those 836 yards.

Michigan had 27.1% of all the rushing yards this season vs PSU. Even more impressive, they had zero recorded pass attempts in that 2h (one ended in a P.I.).
 
Now, concerning this game and the Iowa defense...

The Iowa defense is considered elite. I believe them to be pretty solid...

But...

The offenses they have faced are not exactly the 1999 Rams...

Here they are by PPG Ranking:

14 PSU
28 Utah St
75 Iowa St
85 Illinois
86 Western Michigan
88 Purdue
103 Wisconsin
104 Northwestern
105 Rutgers
116 Minnesota
124 Nebraska
132 Michigan St
 
Looking back at last years UM-Iowa game -- JJ's first career road start...

Michigan really had some nice balanced drives in the first 2.5 quarters of that game to open up a 20-0 lead in Kinnick.

If...if this O-line that is now shuffled with the star gone can keep the momentum of last weeks late 3rd and 4th quarter performance then I can see a UM cover and TT over and likely a game over...

Final thoughts mid-afternoon tomorrow...
 
B.A.R. said:
Now, concerning this game and the Iowa defense...

The Iowa defense is considered elite. I believe them to be pretty solid...

But...

The offenses they have faced are not exactly the 1999 Rams...

Here they are by PPG Ranking:

14 PSU
28 Utah St
75 Iowa St
85 Illinois
86 Western Michigan
88 Purdue
103 Wisconsin
104 Northwestern
105 Rutgers
116 Minnesota
124 Nebraska
132 Michigan St
Click to expand...
Most of the Big Ten offenses are inept so I wouldn't take seriously any defensive rankings.
 
B.A.R. said:
Now, concerning this game and the Iowa defense...

The Iowa defense is considered elite. I believe them to be pretty solid...

But...

The offenses they have faced are not exactly the 1999 Rams...

Here they are by PPG Ranking:

14 PSU
28 Utah St
75 Iowa St
85 Illinois
86 Western Michigan
88 Purdue
103 Wisconsin
104 Northwestern
105 Rutgers
116 Minnesota
124 Nebraska
132 Michigan St
Click to expand...

Plus I think they gonna be playing a great deal of this game on their side of the 50!! As great as iowa unders have been no matter the number I’m really liking the idea of playing Michigan tt ov 27.5!!
 
B.A.R. said:
I don't know.

They haven't had that mentality all year.

The first game JJ played into the middle of the 4th was versus Purdue. The purpose there was to get him acclimated before the last 3 games to a full 4 quarters.

Most of the first 8 games were 'quick' 4th quarters, low in possessions overall and mostly running.

The one time they scored late, was MSU... and that score only occured due to a MSU personal foul with under a minute left.

We'll see in this situation.
Click to expand...
well they did it in the b10 title last year :mad:
 
I've done well betting team unders even when they are crazy low so I put a little on Iowa under 6.5 along with taking Michigan -21 and 21.5.
 
As a newly minted fan for this season only I believe my Wolverines will win by a score something similar to 42-3 covering every way possible including the Iowa under 6.5.
 
Is everyone assuming that Harbaugh is going back to the NFL and wouldn't that be even more incentive to go out right. I think he should stay right where he is but most think he will leave.
 
brewers888 said:
Is everyone assuming that Harbaugh is going back to the NFL and wouldn't that be even more incentive to go out right. I think he should stay right where he is but most think he will leave.
Click to expand...
He's coming back.

There is one p.o.s. trying his hardest to prevent that.

But, the decision is ultimately his.

More than likely he's back and Sherrone is coach in waiting.
 
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