• PICK CLUB WEEK #1 LINES ARE POSTED!

B16 Week 9...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hello all,

We are rocking and rolling through conference season in the and have just 5 weeks left until we head to Indianapolis to determine a champion. This hasn't been the prettiest season for the teams of the B16 in the swan song before becoming a mega-conference -- but -- this is almost an ode to the golden years of the Big 2 and little 8. This conference is certainly top heavy, with a bunch of others looking to get to the bowl eligible mark and be satisfied with the season.

Quick look back to last week. These will be pretty quick as the only full game I saw was the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy...

So, I obviously had planned to watch the entire tilt in Columbus. This was the biggest game of the year -- to date. But, life things happened so I was basically only able to watch the play by play on my phone at times and catch the last 3 minutes. I did start watching this game on replay after Zona St and Washington last night but passed out sitting upright on the couch. Yup, 6 am hiit and I was not feeling too good in the next area. Anyways, back to the game. I remember watching the play by play on the PSU 2nd drive. They started with runs of 20 and 16 yards. I was thinking maybe they had found something. Alas, they found nothing.

Looking at the box, we see a few interesting things...

1-16 on 3rd for PSU
PSU only had 19 non QB runs
15 combined punts
MHJ with 162 yards receiving
1.9 yards per carry for BOTH teams

The impressions I took in reading CFB forums and SM after is that Allar is a statue and Franklin is still Franklin.

My personal question... why did PSU not run the ball more? This was not a DD game till the 4th quarter. Why pass that much??

Anyways, my other take here is that the actual difference in this game was one man -- Marvin Harrison Jr.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

These two teams still have to play Michigan

The lookahead lines are as follows as of today...

Mich -5.5 @ PSU
Mich -6.5 vs OSU

Those have increased after yesterday.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Speaking of Michigan,

Everything went according to plan in East Lansing. JJ was incredible, again and has vaulted into a one of the shorter Heisman prices. He will have November showcases to make his case for a chair in New York City.

Roman and the tight end combo were deadly.

The defense was suffocating.

Now, that run game. Yes, MSU has a pretty good run defense. Yes, most teams have really game planned for the run this year. With that being said, neither back is at last year's level. The Corum injury was a tough one. Also, I think he has bulked up TOO much. With Edwards, remember that he had several injuries last year, a few were not disclosed till this summer. He seems to have lost a step AND has confidence issues. With all that being said, both are being terrific teammates.

That first drive set the tone Saturday night and Sparty was done pretty quickly. The personal fouls started in the 2nd half and #58 should receive some sort of suspension. That has no place in the sport. I understand some of the others from a frustration standpoint. But the one aimed at McGregor was ridiculous.

Also, Michigan goes to knees at the end but of course another PF. That is what it is there, they tried walking them into the endzone.

In the irony category: The UM interception that set up the last score was made by McBurrows. He was one of the players attacked a year ago by MSU players. Then, the final tackle of the game was made by German Green. His brother, who left for the draft, was also one of those attacked.

Fitting finish.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A few interesting UM stats, despite the schedule

-Not one team has ran a play inside the 10 yard line this year.
-Starting defense has scored more points than allowed
-Zero 3rd quarter points given up
-JJ has played approximately 6 full games of UM's 8 if you count his rest time in blowouts
-JJ has a TD throw for every 2 incompletions
-30 total points given up the first 3 quarters
-23 TOTAL penalties this season


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, I liked Wisconsin early in the week. I became indifferent towards the weekend and honestly came back around after reading posts from @EL CAPO and Brass. Then, I wanted to see if ML came down, and waited to bet. Life happened, and I never played it. Sure enough, big sigh of relief with a 21-7 game in the 4th quarter. I was under the impression that Illinois won for hours until I saw that score scroll on the TV. Wow. All I can say. They had 3 "big boy" drives in the 4th to score those 18 points. Huge win for Fickell. Maybe this jumpstarts their end of the season run. I did say earlier in the year their best football would be late. Shall see...


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I still have no clue how that ruling went down on the punt return in Iowa City. I still don't know how two teams could be so bad on offense. This kid for Iowa might not finish above 40% for completion percentage this year. Awful.

Minnesota won the rushing battle 111-13. Wow.

Quick math in my head shows Iowa with -4 2nd half yards,

Let's move on...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I said I could see points in NU vs NU. Yeah, that is why we call them 'leans'.

Pretty even game, Not much I can gleam from studying the box.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rutgers went into Indiana and came out 'BOWL ELIGIBLE'!

How did they accomplish this? They ran. Then they ran some more. Then, they just kept running.

The Knights recorded 55 rush attempts for 276 yards. Two went over 100, including Whimsatt.

Overall yardage was pretty close but a huge t.o.p. edge plus a clean sheet with regards to turnovers led to a nice win.

Big win for those of you on Indiana RSW Under bets!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 9...

We have 4 bye weeks forthcoming. The matchups are not all that thrilling, although anytime a top team goes into Madison, there is some intrigue.

I know @EL CAPO mentioned MSU as a live dog at Minnesota. Their strong defensive front versus a Taylor and the Minnesota ground attack should be interesting.

Maryland becomes bowl eligible with a win at Northwestern. They might as well take care of business here as they face a tough NOV schedule (PSU, NEB, UM and RUT).

Indiana and PSU have had some interesting games the last decade. I think I post this every year now. With that being said, the 'cap' here is how hungover/deflated is Penn State after the loss in Columbus. They had to come out of that game with more questions than answers.

The aforementioned OSU/Wisconsin game is a night tilt in Madison.

I am purposely not mentioning Nebraska and Purdue. In true @HUNT fashion -- tickets are as low as 18 dollars!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I can say pretty confidently that I will not have any pregame positions in the league this week.

On that note, one last note. I don't want to clog up the capping thread with this stuff but I'll make a quick statement. I did make a rather quick one last Friday. My apologies for the lack of thoughts but that is two-fold.

1. Busy week last week in many facets

2. There is no reason to get into this, and I'll use the term for now, witch hunt on UM Football. I am not saying with 100% conviction that this is one, but that is the sentiment as of now. That isn't my fan opinion. With that being said, a few notes and then we'll 'let the dust settle'.

As I said, I heard about something weird possibly being brought up by coaches a month ago during the Rutgers game. Nothing much had come of it after that. There were sone random posts on OSU sites about ' big trouble ' etc but that was it.

Last Wednesday, heard it was coming soon and to look for a leak within a few weeks. Well, a few weeks was the next day.

Now, there is no doubt in mind that media jumped the shark on this one. I mean that in, they basically have decided that guilty until proven innocent is the new way we go about things. I saw the random articles and headlines and honestly had a good laugh. The best was that MSU wanted to forfeit due to 'safety'. That was the pot calling the kettle black situation if I've ever seen one. Some of these blowhards are so into the 'clock society' now that it is ridiculous. Journalism has lost its way.

Now the NCAA was handing over their evidence last Thursday evening. That never happened.

I stated that the NCAA has it out for Jim, and that isn't a "conspiracy". First of all, he has been influential in so many changes in the cfb world the last 9 years. The NCAA certainly doesn't like that. The biggest though is the most recent -- he is advocating for revenue sharing for the players. The NCAA is obviously not happy with that even being an option. They have been making millions off college athletes for decades now and seeing that profit dwindle -- as well as their organization as a whole is a problem. So, when I say that they do not like him, it has merit,

As far as UM people go, they feel confident this is a 'nothingburger' or is that a 'cheeseburger' (due to recent events)? From what I have gathered piecing together several insiders plus aa few on a private board have said. They had to suspend the guy, while this plays out. That is not an admission of any guilt. The players are upset, the coaches are mad, and all this does is motivate them even more.

The latest rumor was the UNLV coach went to the NCAA. From there, the conference and 'certain' coaches got involved. Shall see on that end,

Anyways, with all the random info out there, there is no reason to fully comment until we get straight facts. We know how the Newsworld works right now, and hence why I try and sit back and see how things unfold.

Overall, not worried about anything as of now other than one caveat -- The NCAA apparently convinced member schools to this...

"Under new stricter NCAA rules, head coaches are presumed to know what is happening inside their program. The burden of proof is now on the accused, not the NCAA"

That is a quote from a Wetzel article.

Here is the article in full. This is actual good journalism


Anyways, I'll comment more on this in the 'other thread' or my own thread once we have "actual information". Most everything we have so far is just throwing mud at a wall.

Addendum: Sounds like an overzealous analyst. This kind of jives with the article last summer about how much he'll do to succeed and move up in life (sleeping couch, renting his house as an AirBnB to make extra money to go to games).

Obviously, if Jim or any true coach was directing him to buy tickets and send people to a game -- that's a big deal. If he acted on his own, that's not a good look but should be termination and a show cause.

We're going to see some interesting legalities here and problem a long drawn out thing (imo). Remember, he wasn't at games himself filming (as we know of, now). How was he handling these tickets and who were these "friends".

Pretty fascinating and will rewrite some verbiage in the rule book, no doubt. Times change. REMEMBER, this was ALLOWED until 1994. Why was it outlawed? Because of budgetary concerns with smaller schools with the big boys having a competitive advantage.

Anyhoo, as I said before, wait till all the dust settles. At least we know some of the "evidence" that was supposed to come out last Thursday.

Please let us stay on topic of the games in here, but at least you have my viewpoint no matter what you think of it.
 
Last edited:
Looking at some futures...

PSU dropped to +5000 to win it all.

The 3-way tiebreaker has had a bad few weeks for them, so I am sure that is factored into the price.

If you are confident that PSU can beat Michigan, then Ohio State at 600 has slight value. Why? They'll likely still win a 3 way tiebreaker, even if they lose to Michigan.

And, fwiw, I know we have a month left but I'll be shocked if we see any major upsets in the conference. Maryland 'trap' game for Michigan has been on our minds all calendar year.

The JJ number for Heisman is garbage now. All you can hope for, if you want that ticket is to have someone go nuts the next few weeks to drop his number a bit. Then, grab it before the showcase games.

Marvin is 2500 but he only has one big game left and is a WR. Unfortunately,..
 
Michigan is the only team in the big 10 worthy of top 4 for playoffs

Problem is finding the other three. I guess Texas and Oklahoma deserve to be in the mix but the OU win should punt UT

Pac likely has 2 teams worthy but Lanning ruined one of them

FSU makes it interesting as does Jorja but neither is elite by any means
 
Michigan is the only team in the big 10 worthy of top 4 for playoffs

Problem is finding the other three. I guess Texas and Oklahoma deserve to be in the mix but the OU win should punt UT

Pac likely has 2 teams worthy but Lanning ruined one of them

FSU makes it interesting as does Jorja but neither is elite by any means
Well, I agree at this point.

The lines makers decided after yesterday that the gap between UM and the other two is bigger than they had though prior to the weekend.

With that being said, Michigan has a very tough month coming up.

Hopefully we get both to November 25th and settle it on the field. Bottom line is, nothing would surprise me in that game. Albeit, Mich should win. A guy like MHJ could have a major game and lead em to Indy!

OU and Texas likely play again. That makes that first game less important. But, with Ewers injury....hmmm...
 
Well, I agree at this point.

The lines makers decided after yesterday that the gap between UM and the other two is bigger than they had though prior to the weekend.

With that being said, Michigan has a very tough month coming up.

Hopefully we get both to November 25th and settle it on the field. Bottom line is, nothing would surprise me in that game. Albeit, Mich should win. A guy like MHJ could have a major game and lead em to Indy!

OU and Texas likely play again. That makes that first game less important. But, with Ewers injury....hmmm...
Can't stand that the original OU victory will mean absolutely nothing
 
One more thing -- MSU

I think they should give Barnett a shot. He's a good guy and I think he could help rebuild this program.

Bottom line is, Dantoni recruiting at the end was terrible and Mel was mostly transfers.

They need a hard reset.

Just my 2 cents.

Although, Spartan recruiting sites indicate that it's all but a done deal with Urban.
 
One more thing -- MSU

I think they should give Barnett a shot. He's a good guy and I think he could help rebuild this program.

Bottom line is, Dantoni recruiting at the end was terrible and Mel was mostly transfers.

They need a hard reset.

Just my 2 cents.

Although, Spartan recruiting sites indicate that it's all but a done deal with Urban.
E Lansing has always seemed like hell for a multitude of reasons. Urb there would be the cherry, god at least they aren't trying to win fans across the globe
 
Good stuff here!

Intersting read from LA Times;
Commentary: In Michigan sign-stealing saga, NCAA calling a play USC should recognize

Penn St's Allar certainly wasn't ready for the big stage. Most all throws overthrown. He had some open receivers just couldn't hit any of them. His constant checkdowns in previous games was a red flag. He can grow from this with proper coaching. Hope he gets it.

Harbaugh said in September he wanted to keep "tread on the tire" of his running backs. Maybe that was a way of saying I don't want a tire blowout. Hmm.
 
Nebraska now has 2 starting OL out, 2 of their top 3 RBs out, and their top 2 WR out (if Kemp doesn't play).
 
I think I'll take a stab on MSU +7. Lean under as well but wished I'd grabbed a 41.5 early.

I'll probably be cursing myself Saturday around noon when this game is winding down, but I played Maryland -13.5.

Then probably my strongest BT play this week is under 42 in Nebraska/Purdue.
 
Kemp is out for at least a couple games. That's actually 3 of our top 4 out at WR plus another that would have been playing who quit right before the season.

We're now playing a walk on plus true freshmen at all the WR spots.
 
MSU injuries and portal...


Team Captain Barrow PORTAL
2nd team LT Blackstock

2nd team RB Berger out for year

I believe they are down to 3 DTs in 2deep and 3 scholarship LBs
 
Heritage is floating Week 10 PSU -12 108 out there this am…thoughts? I was thinking it would be at least 17, am I missing something?
 
Heritage is floating Week 10 PSU -12 108 out there this am…thoughts? I was thinking it would be at least 17, am I missing something?
So, that equates to -19 or so at home.

OSU was between -17 to -20 at different times during the week.

So, if anything, perhaps a tad high?
 
So, that equates to -19 or so at home.

OSU was between -17 to -20 at different times during the week.

So, if anything, perhaps a tad high?
See that’s why I posted as I knew you guys would know more about these “obscure B level” teams than I would! Now excuse me while I get back to my analysis of Duquesne vs Sacred Heart as the FCS lines will be out shortly.
 
Back
Top