B16 Week #5 Thread -- October Looms

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well, we are getting ready to get into full league action. We have some data points on the teams and hopefully a solid understanding of what can and will happen as we progress through the month...

Quick snippets from Week 4...


Good job Illinois, in an exhibition...

The Indiana run defense seems good. That pass defense though is rough...

Wisconsin was barely out of the tunnel, and it was night night badgers. I guess we can trust Day to score, score and score like he did the first few years until at least Penn State week...

Minnesota was wildly impressive. We'll call that a gentlemen's shutout up in East Lansing. There are a lot of sad Spartans today and the outlook isn't good (more on that in a bit)...

Maryland came to play on Saturday. They had a very good gameplan on defense and that OL is very impressive. Taulia really wanted that game and played as much. That missed pass middle of the 4th that turned into a pick will haunt him for a bit. Good win for Michigan. They needed a close one and JJ can self-learn a bit from this game. With all the injuries, I think they will take the result.

Well, the Iowa and Rutgers game went over that low number. Iowa had 14 points on defense in the first half. Par for the course. Rutgers actually gained over 300 yards, but you cannot turn the ball over versus a good/great defense...

We'll call that a letdown game for Penn State. They did what they needed to do overall. We saw plenty of this all over the country this past Saturday...

No AOC for Purdue, but they got the job done, albeit barely. That game was tight throughout...

Oh Northwestern, good call @Marsski !

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Okay, let us talk some Michigan State football for a few. I know we have a few fans on the forum so I hope to get their views about what is going on and also what the next month presents...

October Schedule:

@ Maryland
vs Ohio State
vs Wisconsin
BYE
@Michigan

So, sitting at 2-2, this season can get away from them quick unless they can pull out a few wins in this stretch. November lightens up a bit, before closing with the Penn State game...

Let's be frank, this defense might be worse than last year. Was that possible? I didn't think so. Now, injuries have occurred and that is no help at all. With that being said, Mel is a defensive guy and he brought Hazelton in with a lot of fanfare. The natives I talked to the last 24 hours are not happy. Can they turn it around? Obviously, there are some weapons on offense but is Thorne the guy to consistently lead scoring drives (and not just big plays etc)?

Now, they might get a break with a hobbling Taulia this week. The Wisconsin game is at home and doesn't seem as imposing as usual. Obviously, anything can happen in a UM game....

This will be quite the interesting stretch. They paid Coach Tucker 95 million bucks last year. They'll want some return on their investment. Yesterday was his 36th game as a HC and he is now 20-16 overall. Of those losses, 13 are by double digits. Obviously, he struck gold in the portal last year. This year, so far, the results are not there. The thought is that he doesn't like to recruit. Now, so far, they have a pretty nice class coming in but a lot of that can be attributed to their NIL collective (been rumored they have one of the top 6 ones on the country with all that UWM money). They need to win some games to keep these guys from looking elsewhere. We are already seeing a handful of Notre Dame guys visiting elsewhere (against their policy). Bottom line, winning is paramount. Let us keep an eye on things in EL over the next month...

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Some Michigan thoughts before we get to the next week of games...

The two offensive coordinators system is not good. I have not liked it so far, and obviously got some national attention yesterday with Klatt bring it up. Too many chefs in the kitchen and when they get into tight games this is VERY worrisome.

Hunt and I were following the recruitment of Corum few years back and we both wanted him. This was more an Ohio State kind of guy in what you hope is a potent offense. I remember saying he could be like a mini JK Dobbins. Well, we are seeing that. The kid works his butt off and wants to win very badly. He's just a beast. Stay healthy sir...

Speaking of health, they need Edwards back this week. I believe he will play. This kid is a team guy (watch him on the sidelines the last two weeks). His versatility will be huge as they start playing actual defenses.

One minor complaint as they sauntered through the cupcakes is that they didn't work on the long ball much. You could see the timing was off on Saturday. I know they like to hold stuff back, but nothing like some live game action to get great reps in.

Back to the play-calling. Yesterday was about a D+ in my book. That must improve.

The pleasant surprise so far is the secondary. Saturday was a good test and they really held up well.

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We got ourselves a good ole fashioned Bielema Bowl on Saturday! To be honest, tough to figure Wisconsin out so far. Obviously, the blitzing last night and the weird home loss to Wazzu along with the usual patsies. I have nothing here capping-wise. This game should end in the mid 40's and my first though is the dog. I don't have too much interest here with regards to betting...

Purdue heads up to Minneapolis to face the West Division favorite, Minnesota Golden Gophers. The first order of business here is to figure out the status of Aiden. After that, we can start capping. I do not think that Purdue matches up well with this style of team. Although, they had that Penn State game in hand (similar teams). We'll see. Minnesota finally played a decent team, and romped. Will we look back weeks from now and decide that MSU wasn't even decent? Good question. A Minnesota team total here would still be under 34 points so that can be discussed. The one thing I feel safe saying, this game will be played in much better conditions than last season....

Michigan heads to Iowa City to face the Hawks. This is their first visit since the infamous 2016 game. As a fan, I am very happy this is a 11am local game instead of at night. We know how those night games go at Kinnick. I can break this down pretty quickly. Michigan commits zero turnovers, they win. Let's say they commit one, then they should win but it will be tight. Anything more than that and they will have a tough time. This spread no doubt seems high. I cannot find a reason to bet the number either way. I foresee UM being very conservative and careful. I think this will remind us of last year's game in Madison to be honest. Expect a trick play and a few wrinkles for sure. I'll add more on this game as I get caught up on my reading over the next few days...


Pitiful Northwestern heads to Happy Valley, in what should be a laugher. Now, we have seen the Cats circle the wagons before, but this team absolutely is awful. They catch Penn State off a semi-lethargic performance last week. I would expect the Lions want to sharpen things up a bit. First half TT at around 21 may be in play here... that is my first capping angle...

What a difference a few days makes, as we look at MSU and Maryland. On Friday, the early line here was Michigan State -2.5. I believe this opened around Maryland -3.5 (correct me if wrong). We now have a full -7 spread for the home team. Again, Taulia status is big for me. I was impressed with Edwards, and he is capable, but you need Taulia in there to be at full speed. Once again, Maryland Team Total is in play here. I'll get back to this once we get a few things sorted out...

Poor Rutgers.... They'll play hard as always but this is a blowout in the shoe... hefty tariff to pay though if you want to take the home Scarlet team...

Last, and certainly least, we have the Hoosiers heading to Lincoln. This line represents an even battle on a neutral field. With the Hoosiers run defense and the lack of any defense on the other side, this feels like a lot of passing, right? Now, that will be my focus here is on totals in some shape or form. I would be slightly interested in the Hoosiers but the lookahead aspect here cannot be doubted, as well as the Huskers really needing a win. So, overs in some shape or form for myself....


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Week #6 in conference


Nebraska @ Rutgers on Friday night

Michigan @ Indiana

Ohio State @ Michigan State

Iowa @ Illinois

Wisconsin @ Northwestern

Purdue @ Maryland
 
MSU is pure shit, plain and simple. All they care about is their super bowl. Mel gets paid 10 million a year for that 1 game.
 
God bless the big ten, what a sorry ass conference this year. Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Iowa is only good on one side of the ball, and very well can beat Michigan because the kid is in his first road start..not the ideal place to play. We will see if he has an iron jock.

Is there any defense outside of those 4 teams and Iowa? Serious question. Even Penn State is horrific against the pass. I would purely guess 75% of the big ten is in the bottom half of the country on defense.

PJ Fleck has got it going on. This team has had Tanner in his 9th year at qb and the RB in his 8th year. Will be a good matchup to catch Bucks or Michigan the week after the game. Lucky fuckers.
 
so what does it say about rutgers that they played boston college darn near even and temple ? especially how bad bc is

i think may be some value on sparty now...did i see a +7.5 ? if they get some guys healthy i think tucker is a good dog coach but they have 0 run game it is bad
 
I posted multiple times here about being on Maryland this week. Got some -2.5 at early open. The line now seems more appropriate but If Tago plays they should put up 40…

I was not impressed by JJ at all last week. One thing that stood out was his lack of pocket awareness. Will need to be better at iowa. That being said it would be Michigan or nothing for me this week, just don’t know how you can bank on iowa to score much here
 
survive&advance said:
I posted multiple times here about being on Maryland this week. Got some -2.5 at early open. The line now seems more appropriate but If Tago plays they should put up 40…

I was not impressed by JJ at all last week. One thing that stood out was his lack of pocket awareness. Will need to be better at iowa. That being said it would be Michigan or nothing for me this week, just don’t know how you can bank on iowa to score much here
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You did.

Wild this number has moved 10 points or so since last Friday.
 
survive&advance said:
I posted multiple times here about being on Maryland this week. Got some -2.5 at early open. The line now seems more appropriate but If Tago plays they should put up 40…

I was not impressed by JJ at all last week. One thing that stood out was his lack of pocket awareness. Will need to be better at iowa. That being said it would be Michigan or nothing for me this week, just don’t know how you can bank on iowa to score much here
Click to expand...
Yeah, his pocket awareness wasn't good at all. That will get better. Kid is a nerd as far as studying, improving.

That's the first time he's played a full game, that was tight. Good learning moments.

His most action was in the blowout Orange Bowl. Last year was mostly spot duty and he wasn't exactly dropping back all that much.
 
Since Brohm's first year, when they were winning games because of their defense rather than their offense, Purdue has lost the last 4 straight vs Minny.

2017 - W 31-17
2018 - L 10-41
2019 - L 31-38
2020 - L 31-34
2021 - L 13-20

Purdue was favored in 3 of the 4 losses, but failed to cover all 4 in addition to losing all 4 outright. I know the 2020 game Purdue should've won...think there was an obvious PI that wasn't called on PU's 4th down final possession? Some other funny business I can't remember. But it mostly appears this has turned into a bad matchup for Brohm's team.

Paintcrew will know, but I have heard things ranging from Brohm saying "we're going to need him (Burton) for a 'while'" - I think he said 'while', to the beat reporter this morning saying O'Connell could be available this week.
 
We agree there are things we like about Maryland and things we don't like about Michigan State.

But remember, Maryland is just one game removed from their home game vs SMU. Maybe SMU is better than Michigan State? Just saying just because Maryland played really well (except for run D), just because they played really well vs Michigan, doesn't exactly mean we see the same thing here. Michigan State is desperate and embarrassed (x2 now). I'd take the old lookahead line (as we all would of course) of what did you say Mary +2.5? Opened at Mary -2.5, but if it is now over 7? That isn't anything I'm interested in laying even though I'd rather have Maryland to win the game, but at this level, I'd probably be considering MSU. Just when everybody leaves them for dead and just when everybody is patting Maryland on the back for playing good vs Michigan, now the line surges to over 7? If I have blinders on (not always a bad thing) take the dog in this game.
 
HUNT said:
God bless the big ten, what a sorry ass conference this year. Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Iowa is only good on one side of the ball, and very well can beat Michigan because the kid is in his first road start..not the ideal place to play. We will see if he has an iron jock.

Is there any defense outside of those 4 teams and Iowa? Serious question. Even Penn State is horrific against the pass. I would purely guess 75% of the big ten is in the bottom half of the country on defense.

PJ Fleck has got it going on. This team has had Tanner in his 9th year at qb and the RB in his 8th year. Will be a good matchup to catch Bucks or Michigan the week after the game. Lucky fuckers.
Click to expand...
Illinois plays good defense. At home at least.
 
By the way, that is one hellacious write up BAR. Much appreciated, great info.

Just some quick thoughts:

On Michigan: They seemed really reliant on Corum, and he delivered. I laid with Michigan so I was disappointed in the result, but you have to give Maryland credit. They did something they haven't done recently, which is show a pulse against a good team. I was expecting more explosiveness from McCarthy. Probably silly of me in his first start.

MSU: They are terrible against the pass, and Minnesota with Cirocca back at OC can definitely throw it, even wothout Autman Bell it appears. If MSU doesn't have Jayden Reed, they are really lost on offense too. Thorne is solid, but he can't carry the load. Needs playmakers.

NW: I'm not giving up on them yet because they ALWAYS play like shit as a home favorite, so nothing new there. They might look a little better in conference.

IL/WISC: Like you, not sure what to think on that one. Wiscy definitely misses Chanel and Sanborn.

Any intel on O'Connell for Purdue? If he's out, my comfort level with playing them will evaporate.

Rutgers was WAY better on offense than I expected. Not good, but I expected less than 150 yards.

Indiana: I still can't believe Illinois lost to them. Terrible officiating, and they had a TD stolen from them, but still.. They might be a decent dog in conference though. Somewhat competent passing offense (WR Camper is really good), and defensively they have some hard workers.

On your wavelength on pretty much everything you said.
 
Brohm drives me insane with injuries but here's his quotes yesterday on AOC (and besides Graham about the only thing that matters when capping this game one way or another on Saturday):

"Aidan, we'll see later on in the week where that's at,” said Purdue coach Jeff Brohm at his Monday press conference.

O’Connell didn’t play last week in a too-close-for-comfort 28-26 Homecoming victory vs. Florida Atlantic that leveled Purdue’s record at 2-2 overall (0-1 Big Ten). Brohm says the sixth-year senior was injured in the first quarter of a 32-29 loss at Syracuse on Sept. 17.

"Well, I don't want to disclose what his injury is for his safety, so a lot of times when you get injured during the game, you've got adrenaline and then you're able to play through it," said Brohm.

Despite the injury, O'Connell finished the game at Syracuse, completing 39-of-56 passes (69 percent) for 424 yards with three TDs and an interception.

"It's not until later on do you feel sore and then you get things checked and you diagnose what it is and you have to adapt," said Brohm. "I think that probably is more common than you think, unless it's extremely, extremely severe that you can't play with.

"I just think he's tough and he wanted to finish, and he did a really good job in the Syracuse game."
Click to expand...
 
s--k said:
Since Brohm's first year, when they were winning games because of their defense rather than their offense, Purdue has lost the last 4 straight vs Minny.

2017 - W 31-17
2018 - L 10-41
2019 - L 31-38
2020 - L 31-34
2021 - L 13-20

Purdue was favored in 3 of the 4 losses, but failed to cover all 4 in addition to losing all 4 outright. I know the 2020 game Purdue should've won...think there was an obvious PI that wasn't called on PU's 4th down final possession? Some other funny business I can't remember. But it mostly appears this has turned into a bad matchup for Brohm's team.

Paintcrew will know, but I have heard things ranging from Brohm saying "we're going to need him (Burton) for a 'while'" - I think he said 'while', to the beat reporter this morning saying O'Connell could be available this week.
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My guy @s--k with the goods here. I'll add at least a note on each.

Fair enough to say if I don't like to admit it that Fleck has Brohm's number but he does at this point.

2018 - Purdue froze into oblivion in single digit temps after a couple key guys were hurt (but wouldn't have mattered as Minnesota just ran it down their pitiful throats)
2019 - Purdue's starting QB (Sindelar) and best receiver in the past 50 years (Rondale) got hurt on separate moments on the same play in the first half
2020 - Durham caught the game winning TD but got called for OPI for being better than his opponent as he went by
2021 - Purdue does stupid things in monsoons....triples teams up in first downs and outgains teams by 200 yds and finds a way to lose (also David Bell didn't play)

See the above on Brohm (O'Connell)....my folks were wrong last saturday and Brohm even had a lot of typically knowledgable purdue folks guessing all the way up until game time and I'd expect that to be the case this week.

Brohm won't reveal injury but pretty sure it's ribs since AOC played through it at Syracuse. My feeling is they held him out to prepare for this one but then Brohm goes out there and gives doubt....which he should as Fleck clearly isn't his favorite coach on the other side. Makes it damn hard to cap though.
 
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I honestly think you are talking about a 10 point value (at least) one way or another if AOC starts/sits....Purdue will put up points on this defense if he goes in the current weather forecast. With Burton/Alaimo/Allen....it's an entirely different team hoping to dink and dunk and just hoping to hang around.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Wisconsin -7 is a slammer. Ultimate buy low spot. Illinois has played absolutely nobody.
Click to expand...

I might think it is bait. UW was -11 last year on the road and won 24-0. As you say, ILL has played "nobody" so why the low line at Camp Randall?
 
This fires up next week everyone!



Pick Club XI -- Coming this October to CTG

Welcome back to Pick Club for the 11th installment of our beloved contest! That's right, we are back for another year to find out who the best NFL capper is on CTG! Past Champions have included: 2010: Eggman 2011: Smith1051 2012: Smith1051 2013: Mogo 2014: Alex 2015: SilkyDiamonds 2016: TakeIt...
cappingthegame.com cappingthegame.com
 
B.A.R. said:
This fires up next week everyone!



Pick Club XI -- Coming this October to CTG

Welcome back to Pick Club for the 11th installment of our beloved contest! That's right, we are back for another year to find out who the best NFL capper is on CTG! Past Champions have included: 2010: Eggman 2011: Smith1051 2012: Smith1051 2013: Mogo 2014: Alex 2015: SilkyDiamonds 2016: TakeIt...
cappingthegame.com cappingthegame.com
Click to expand...

timmy smith went back to back? miss seeing him in the fantasy bases league, but still see him now and again on FB. great dude, great family.
 
s--k said:
We agree there are things we like about Maryland and things we don't like about Michigan State.

But remember, Maryland is just one game removed from their home game vs SMU. Maybe SMU is better than Michigan State? Just saying just because Maryland played really well (except for run D), just because they played really well vs Michigan, doesn't exactly mean we see the same thing here. Michigan State is desperate and embarrassed (x2 now). I'd take the old lookahead line (as we all would of course) of what did you say Mary +2.5? Opened at Mary -2.5, but if it is now over 7? That isn't anything I'm interested in laying even though I'd rather have Maryland to win the game, but at this level, I'd probably be considering MSU. Just when everybody leaves them for dead and just when everybody is patting Maryland on the back for playing good vs Michigan, now the line surges to over 7? If I have blinders on (not always a bad thing) take the dog in this game.
Click to expand...
the key to this handicap is , - is michigan state actually a dead team or just a much worse team then last year, in which they can still cover ? like boston college, bc covers last week if they weren't dead - wanted to think they weren't dead and just bad, i bet on them and they were dead as dead can be. sparty beat up on some mac teams, i don't think they dead dead yet
 
EL CAPO said:
the key to this handicap is , - is michigan state actually a dead team or just a much worse team then last year, in which they can still cover ? like boston college, bc covers last week if they weren't dead - wanted to think they weren't dead and just bad, i bet on them and they were dead as dead can be. sparty beat up on some mac teams, i don't think they dead dead yet
Click to expand...

Yes. It's very difficult to know these things. Georgia Tech last week is another, just when it might seem they threw in the towel, quit on the coach, they arguably play their best game. Unless somebody gets some kind of inside information or indication it's next to impossible to predict the give-up/dead, stop bringing 100% effort.

This is definitely a problem with teams that rely heavily on transfers. There are no roots to the program, no commitment or allegiance and it makes the possibility of digging the team out of a hole much harder. So while I think the players probably still trust and believe in the coaches and staff, with each failure and embarrassing performance it gets tougher; and a Dantonio team pre-portal would be more likely to pick themselves up than a team in this era.
 
This may or may not mean anything but there was confirmation of O'Connell in a jersey at the end of practice yesterday. After which Brian Brohm talked at length only about Burton and Alaimo and how they'll be needing both this week.

Who the hell knows
 
Here we are, Friday morning and the this week is flying...

Few notes..

These guys should be good to go for Michigan:

Donavon Edwards
Henning
Barnhart

Off course, anything can change

Hill Green likely out quite awhile longer... LB is a concern right now...
Keegan is likely still out as well....

No update on Cade... could be 2-4 more weeks reading the tea leaves...

Through the grapevine, have heard that Jim really lit into at least one assistant if not more about gameplan/play-calling last week...

White shirts, blue pants this weekend...

PERFECT WEATHER on Saturday, mid to high 60's with a light breeze...


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Oh, talked to tee*dub the other day. I was surprised at his take on this particular game... ;)
 
B.A.R. said:
Here we are, Friday morning and the this week is flying...

Few notes..

These guys should be good to go for Michigan:

Donavon Edwards
Henning
Barnhart

Off course, anything can change

Hill Green likely out quite awhile longer... LB is a concern right now...
Keegan is likely still out as well....

No update on Cade... could be 2-4 more weeks reading the tea leaves...

Through the grapevine, have heard that Jim really lit into at least one assistant if not more about gameplan/play-calling last week...

White shirts, blue pants this weekend...

PERFECT WEATHER on Saturday, mid to high 60's with a light breeze...


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Oh, talked to tee*dub the other day. I was surprised at his take on this particular game... ;)
Click to expand...
I mean now you have to share or hopefully the legend himself will stop by?
 
Brohm notes from after yesterday's practice:

Aidan O’Connell and Reese Taylor are game-time decisions (if Brohm had his way the entire damn team would be game time decisions every week)
- WR Broc Thompson and OT Cam Craig out Saturday and could be out for an extended period of time
- S/LB Jalen Graham, RB King Doerue, WRs Elijah Canion and Abdur Rahamaa Yaseen are out for Saturday
- Marcus Mbow taking some reps at OT
- If Austin Burton starts, Michael Alaimo will have series in first half, dictate how it goes from there

Bottom line seems like Flecks Purdue voodoo doll is working pretty well again this year....
 
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